Tuley the Journalist

ViewFromVegas of Preakness 2010; odds to win Triple Crown

2010-05-14T17:57:00Z

Below is my column that appears in the Saturday print editions of Daily Racing Form...it's already online at: http://drf.com/news/content/10.html

Also check out a fuller breakdown I did of the Preakness at Bodog.com in what they call a "face-off article" vs. fellow journalist Steve Davidowitz: http://www.bodog.com/horse-betting/face-off-review/2010-preakness-stakes.jsp

Super Saver pegged at 7-1 to sweep Crown

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - Of all the 3-year-olds on the Triple Crown trail this spring, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver is the only one with a chance to sweep the series as we head to the Preakness this Saturday.

Now, that's an obvious statement, but the point is that a horse wins the Derby every year, and, except in rare cases such as being injured (Grindstone in 1996), we except that the victor will be sent to Pimlico. Before the Derby, the odds were around 6-1 that there would be a Triple Crown this year, rising slightly to 6.5-1 after pre-Derby Week favorite Eskendereya was declared from the race. The uneducated would assume that once a horse won the Derby that the odds would drop significantly since they already have one of the three races out of the way. But knowing what we know, it wasn't too shocking when the Wynn Las Vegas posted the updated odds after Super Saver's victory and put it right at 6-1. You could also lay 1-8 that he wouldn't accomplish the feat. In fact, he has since been raised to 7-1 instead of having the odds drop.

Of course, the odds on any one particular horse will change dramatically. A week before the Derby, Super Saver opened at 75-1 to win the Triple Crown at the Wynn. After Eskendereya's defection, Super Saver was dropped to 50-1, and he's now down to that 7-1.

Super Saver was a popular winner in the race books here, both from bettors and from bookmakers behind the counter. Clearly, from the fact he went off at 8-1 after a morning line of 15-1, you could tell he was a popular selection. For those who bet him in futures, he also paid off nicely, though not as nicely as you might think considering he opened at 275-1 when the Wynn began its Derby future book on Sept. 9. He won his maiden by seven lengths just two days after those odds were posted and was dropped to 150-1. After a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont, he won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28 and plummeted to 50-1 at the Wynn. By the time other race books in town posted their first Derby futures, Super Saver was well on everyone's radar.

When Eskendereya was still on the Derby trail, the odds on Todd Pletcher training his first Derby winner were set at pick-em by the Lucky's race books (-115 either way). After the favorite was declared from the race, he was raised to 4-1 at the Wynn and Super Saver came through for Pletcher. Super Saver's win in 2:04.45 went well over the over/under of 2:02.40 and his mutuel price of $18 was under the over/under of $20.10.

Proposition wagers won't be as prevalent in Las Vegas for the Preakness, but head-to-head matchups will be available at most race books by Saturday. Super Saver vs. Derby losing favorite Lookin At Lucky will probably be the most popular.

* Consider yours truly in the camp that isn't ready to move Super Saver into superstar status off one winning race this year, even if it was the Derby. Jackson Bend has been just as consistent overall, is a much juicier price, and should be closer to the pace as he obviously prefers. I'll also look to take Lookin At Lucky in a head-to-head matchup vs. Super Saver. Tuley's Preakness picks: 1. Jackson Bend. 2. Lookin At Lucky. 3. Paddy O'Prado. Longshot: Aikenite.

Sports book notes

As of presstime Thursday, the pre-playoff favored Cleveland Cavaliers were fighting for their lives with a Thursday night Game 6 vs. the Boston Celtics. The Orlando Magic, who are awaiting the Cavs-Celts survivor, has actually taken on the favorite's role in the Las Vegas Hilton NBA future books at 7-5 heading into Thursday night, with the Los Angeles Lakers at 8-5, the Cavaliers at 6-1, and the Boston Celtics at 10-1. Obviously, the latter two will change dramatically depending on Thursday night's result. The Western Conference Finals are set with the Lakers taking on the Phoenix Suns. The Lakers are -300 (risk $3 for every $1 you want to profit) with the Suns at +230 (win $2.30 for every $1 wagered), according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

* If the NBA playoffs seem surprising, it's nothing compared to the NHL. The Montreal Canadiens, the last team to make the Stanley Cup playoffs and the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, has pulled off back-to-back series upsets of the top-seeded Washington Capitals and the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. They await the winner of Friday night's Game 7 between the Boston Bruins and the Philadelphia Flyers. The Bruins are a slight -120 favorite at home. In the West, the top two seeds have reached the conference finals, which starts 3 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. The San Jose Sharks, the No. 1 seed and holding home-ice advantage, are just a -125 (odds of 4-5) favorite to take Game 1 as well as the series vs. the Chicago Blackhawks.

* The Gamblers Book Shop has been a required stop for many horseplayers and sports bettors (as well as students of all gambling games). After 45 years at its 11th Street location near downtown Las Vegas, it moved to Tropicana Avenue last year. Now, it has moved again to 5473 S. Eastern Ave. (just south of Tropicana).

ViewFromVegas of 2010 Kentucky Derby Day

2010-05-01T08:47:00Z

Below is my column that appears in the print editions of Saturday, May 1 -- Derby Day. It takes a journalistic look at the impact of the anticipated favorite Eskendereya being declared from the race as well as the futures and prop bets that Las Vegas is known for in regards to big sporting events: http://drf.com/news/article/112579.html

By Dave Tuley

For the second straight year, Kentucky Derby week scratches have affected future-bet odds and props.

A week ago, Eskendereya was assumed to be the heavy favorite for the 136th Run for the Roses and was a relatively low 9-1 to sweep the Triple Crown at the Wynn Las Vegas race book. But then the news broke Sunday morning that he had swelling in his left front leg and would miss the spring classics. This reminded many of last year, when presumed favorite Quality Road was declared from the Derby the Monday before the race. As many will recall, I Want Revenge inherited the favorite's role but was scratched on race day. Bob Baffert, trainer of this year's favorite, Lookin At Lucky, will be knocking on every wood thing he sees.

Lookin At Lucky was lowered to 3-1 in the Wynn future book Sunday, and that's what he was made on the morning line by Churchill's Mike Battaglia on Wednesday. Lookin At Lucky also has the lowest odds to win the Triple Crown, dropping from 20-1 to 14-1 in the absence of Eskendereya. The Wynn also has a generic Triple Crown prop on whether any horse will accomplish the feat. The odds Wednesday were +650 (win $6.50 for every $1 wagered) that, yes, we would see our first Triple Crown winner in 32 years; they were -900 (same as odds of 1-9, risking $9 for every $1 you want to win) on the no. Last week, with Eskendereya still in the field, the odds were 6-1 on a Triple Crown winner this year.

Last week, the Lucky's race books in Nevada had a prop on whether Todd Pletcher would be the winning trainer. He was expected to have five starters in the field. Lucky's had it at -115 on the yes and on the no. The prop was taken down after the Pletcher-trained Eskendereya was declared from the race, and it hadn't been put back up by early Wednesday. Right after the draw, John Avello at the Wynn said he was planning to put it up with the no at -500 and the yes at +400. Quite a change in the odds on Pletcher, who is 0 for 24 with Derby runners in nine attempts. This year, his runners are Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, and Discreetly Mine.

We all know Derby futures is a fluid market. I went back and checked the first Derby 136 future book in Vegas on Sept. 8, 2009, when Avello posted 131 horses. Five horses opened at under 100-1, and all five made it to the entry box: Dublin (40-1), Lookin At Lucky (45-1), Sidney's Candy (45-1), Backtalk (75-1), and Mission Impazible (85-1).

"Dublin had just won the Hopeful, so he was the logical favorite," Avello said. "Backtalk was a promising 2-year-old at the time, but he should probably be at least 100-1 on raceday, as he hasn't done much."

Lookin At Lucky went on to be 2-year-old champ, and Sidney's Candy, who is 5-1 on the Derby morning line, swept three Santa Anita Derby preps, including the Santa Anita Derby. Dublin hasn't won since the Hopeful, although he finished third in the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel.

Although we've seen time and again how hard it is to accurately predict the final Derby field even a few weeks in advance, it's even harder eight months in advance. From that opening list of 131, 11 have made the field. The nine who weren't on the radar yet were Noble's Promise, Line of David, Ice Box, Conveyance, American Lion, Dean's Kitten, Awesome Act, Paddy O'Prado, and Homeboykris.

Props for everyone

Back to the present day, just about every race book in town will be offering head-to-head matchups on the Derby. The most popular one is sure to be among the top two choices, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy, the third- and first-place finishers in the Santa Anita Derby. Lucky's race books have Lookin At Lucky as a -200 favorite; Sidney's Candy is +170. The Wynn has it a little closer, with Lookin At Lucky -170 and Sidney's Candy +140. Obviously, if you were to bet Lookin At Lucky you would want to lay the price at the Wynn, and if you like the underdog you would be better off taking the higher price at the Lucky's books. As always, odds are subject to change, and you might find better prices elsewhere.

Avello earlier this week said he was planning to put the over/under time of the race at 2:02.20, but he will be keeping an eye on weather reports. He was also working on an even/odd saddle-cloth prop, with the odd to expected to be favored, as well as an over/under winning mutuel, which Avello said he was leaning toward making $20.

For those looking to cheer against the bookmaker, Avello said the worst result for the house would be Dublin, Conveyance, Homeboykris, Awesome Act, or Paddy O'Prado. He said Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy would be about break-even, and everyone else would be a winner for the Wynn.

* The race books all over town are expected to be standing-room only with horseplayers and casual observers of the big event. For those looking for a chance to sit and take in the racing all day long, there are free public parties at the Orleans and South Point. Private VIP parties are harder to get into, though if you plan to wager $1,000 during the day you might consider the Stratosphere, which is hosting a live bankroll contest, including free entry to its VIP party, for that amount.

* Most race books will also offer either Derby T-shirts or mint julep glasses that usually require a Derby wager of $20 or $25.

* Tuley's Derby picks: 1. Line of David, 2. Sidney's Candy, 3. Homeboykris.

Final Four preview in April 3, 2010, Daily Racing Form

2010-04-02T11:08:00Z

Below is my column that appears in the April 3, 2010, print editions of Daily Racing Form and is available online at the DRF website. It previews the Final Four this weekend, as well as touching on Kentucky Derby preps, the start of the baseball season and the Masters next week with the return of Tiger Woods -- all from a unique Vegas point of view. For more news with that view, visit ViewFromVegas.com, especially in the VFV Forums:

By Dave Tuley

What happened to the Madness?

It never ceases to amaze me how every year there is a frenzy leading up to the opening weekend of the NCAA men's basketball tournament in mid-March. There is nonstop analysis of who will make the tourney and who will be snubbed, the excitement of filling out the brackets, and the wall-to-wall basketball of the first two rounds, with buzzer-beaters and upsets galore.

Then just two weeks later, when the Final Four is set, there's a relative ho-hum attitude during the week. Sure, college basketball fans are still excited about the semifinals set for Saturday and the championship game Monday night, but it's not the same. It's anti-climactic in a lot of ways.

Upsets have defined this tournament, which has been good for bookmakers and underdog players. The opening Thursday, March 18, saw underdogs go 10-5-1 against the spread, with six outright upsets. Depending on when you bet the Northern Iowa-UNLV game, in which UNI was an underdog before closing as the favorite, and the Tennessee-San Diego St. game, which was 3 1/2 before closing at 3 and ending as a push, you could argue that dogs were as high as 12-4 against the spread.

No matter how many times the public sees upsets at tournament time and cheers for the underdog, when it's time to bet, they still mostly lay the points on the favorites.

Though there were still plenty of upsets along the way, underdogs were only 28-26-2 against the spread at the conclusion of the Sweet 16 round last Friday night, but they made a comeback over the weekend with Butler, West Virginia, and Michigan St. all pulling outright upsets in the regional finals over Kentucky, Kansas St., and Tennessee. With the final spot on the line Sunday afternoon, Duke came through for the favorite bettors and CBS as the only No. 1 seed to make the Final Four.

With so many of the major-market teams and top seeds sitting back at home, the Final Four might not draw the biggest TV ratings, but it is an intriguing group. Three of the teams are from the power conferences - the Big East, ACC, and Big Ten - and there are three recognizable coaches in Duke's Mike Krzyzewski, Michigan St.'s Tom Izzo, and West Virginia's Bob Huggins. There is also the Cinderella/"Hoosiers" story of Butler, which is from the Horizon League and has a young coach in Brad Stevens.

People are drawing parallels between "Hoosiers" and Butler, because the state title game in the movie took place in Hinkle Fieldhouse, where Butler plays. But the Bulldogs were highly ranked all year and were a No. 5 seed, the same as their opponent, Michigan St. When Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its suggested line last Sunday, it made Butler a 1 1/2-point favorite, and that's pretty much where the line has stayed.

In the other semifinal, Duke opened as a 2-point favorite over West Virginia, and most books have moved it to 2 1/2. The totals on the two games are 126 and 131. Unders have a 33-27 edge so far in the tournament.

My top play on the weekend is West Virginia vs. Duke. I love how the Mountaineers play defense. I don't think they can take all the credit for Kentucky missing its first 20

3-point attempts and going 4 for 32 in the game, but their players' ability to challenge shots and cut off passing lanes certainly helped. They've carried the momentum from their Big East tournament sweep, and I think they get the job done Saturday night.

The Lucky's sports books in town have already posted lines on the four potential title games next Monday night. They have West Virginia -2 1/2 vs. Butler, West Virginia -3 vs. Michigan St., Duke -4 1/2 vs. Butler, and Duke -5 vs. Michigan St. My pick for the eventual matchup is West Virginia vs. Butler, and I'd be on the short "home" dog.

Lucky's future-book odds heading into the Final Four have Duke as the 13-10 favorite to win it all, with West Virginia 5-2, Butler 4-1, and Michigan St. 9-2. A cool feature of the Lucky's futures that a lot of books don't offer is that you can bet against each team: the "no" on each team is Duke -150, West Virginia -300, Butler -500, and Michigan St. -600.

Race and sports book notes

Two of the biggest Kentucky Derby preps are being run this weekend - the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita - and they're being headed by the two favorites in the Derby future book at Wynn Las Vegas. Lookin At Lucky, the 4-5 morning-line favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, is the 4-1 favorite in the Wynn's Derby futures heading into this weekend. Eskendereya, a 4-5 morning-line favorite in the Wood, is 5-1 at the Wynn. No other 3-year-olds are in single digits.

* The Major League Baseball season opens Sunday night with the Yankees visiting the Red Sox. And, as has been the case in recent years, they're both among the top contenders in the World Series future book. The Las Vegas Hilton has the Yankees as the 3-1 favorite, with the Red Sox and Phillies the co-second choices at 6-1. There's a dropoff to the Cardinals and Rays at 12-1, Cubs at 15-1, the White Sox and Braves at 20-1, and the Angels, Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies at 25-1.

* After Tiger Woods announced he was making his return at Augusta National, his odds to win the Masters were lowered to 4-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton, but it has been raised to 9-2 after betting on him cooled off. The Hilton offers odds of -600 if you want to take the field vs. Woods.

DRF column on opening NCAA tournament lines, adjusted futures, plus picks

2010-03-16T15:17:00Z

Below is my column that is appearing in Daily Racing Form's print editions for Wednesday, March 17 (and is available online at http://drf.com/news/content/10.html).

Before getting to that, I also want to remind you of our ViewFromVegas.com Podcast Show Tuesday night in which I will be joined by John Kelly and Dr. Odds in going over the NCAA Tournament. The show is live at 7 p.m. Pacific (the link can be found here: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussion.aspx?id=226888) and can also be downloaded after the show is complete.

Also, ViewFromVegas.com is having a bracket contest as well as a spread/total contest on the NCAA Tournament, so check out those threads at the top of the VFV Forums for details: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussions.aspx

Ok, here's the column:

Lines indicate lots of tight games

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - The NCAA tournament field hadn't even been fully announced Sunday and the discussions about point spreads had already begun.

And I'm not just talking about the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants helping to set the opening numbers, or even the wise guys in Nevada's sports books.

It was right there on CBS's NCAA tournament selection show. Analyst Greg Anthony made a comment about the line for the first-round game matching No. 13 Siena vs. No. 4 Purdue.

"Could we possibly have a scenario where a 13 seed is actually favored over a 4 seed in the absence of Robbie Hummel [for Purdue]?" asked Anthony, a Vegas native and star on UNLV's 1990 championship team, who was just giving the view from his hometown.

As it turned out, the answer was "no." Oddsmakers opened Purdue as a 4-point favorite.

Such references on its sanctioned broadcast probably doesn't thrill the NCAA, but it just acknowledges the elephant that everyone knows is in the room: March Madness is all about the betting, whether it's the legal (or illegal) betting on the point spreads and totals of individual games or the ubiquitous contests in offices throughout this country and extending into cyberspace.

The spread on that game is lower than normal for a 4-13 matchup. This is part of an overall trend we're seeing where oddsmakers aren't letting underdog bettors get as many points as they did in the past.

In fact, a full quarter of the games on Thursday and Friday opened with line of under a basket, between pick-em and 1 1/2 - and four of those are games where you could have found both sides favored at different sports books in early wagering Sunday night. That's the most in the 12 years I've been in Vegas. While you would expect that from the 8-9 matchups (where the UNLV-Northern Iowa, Gonzaga-Florida State, and California-Louisville games fit the bill) and even some 7-10 matchups (chalk up Oklahoma State-Georgia Tech, Clemson-Missouri, and Richmond-St. Mary's), it's not typical to have two 6-11 games right around pick-em: Xavier-Minnesota and Marquette-Washington. In maybe the biggest surprise of all, No. 11 seed Minnesota had been bet to a 1-point favorite over No. 6 Xavier as of noon Monday.

Of course, the top seeds have big spreads to cover, but those also appear shaded downward. Kansas has the biggest spread at -27 vs. Lehigh, which is in line with what we except to see. However, Kentucky opened -23 1/2 vs. Eastern Tennessee St. at the M Resort on the south end of Las Vegas, and it got bet all the way down to 20 1/2 on Sunday night as one of the few examples of a soft line that the wise guys were able to jump on. Syracuse is only -17 1/2 vs. Vermont after opening at 19; maybe because people remember the Catamounts upsetting the Orange in their last meeting. The Duke line wasn't up as of deadline as they await their opponent from Tuesday night's play-in game between Winthrop and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

The 2-15 and 3-14 games offer few surprises, with New Mexico -9 vs. Montana being the only game in those groups with a line in the single digits, though it opened at 10 before being bet down.

We hear every year about the success of the underdogs in the 5-12 games, so it's not surprising that Butler and Texas A&M are only around 2 1/2-point favorites in their respective games vs. UTEP and Utah St. The Butler game actually opened at 5 1/2 at the M before being bet as low as 2 before rising back up again.

Kansas is the chalk

Speaking of chalk, it was interesting to hear ESPN analyst Digger Phelps say "don't bet the chalk" a couple of times on that network. The term for a favorite isn't heard much in the sports world, and it's good to hear it getting more widespread use.

Anyway, Kansas was the No. 1 overall seed of the committee and the Jayhawks are also the favorite in the updated NCAA future-book odds that the Las Vegas Hilton posted Sunday night. Kansas is 5-2 to cut down the nets in Indianapolis, followed by fellow No. 1 seeds Kentucky (7-2), Syracuse and Duke (both 8-1). Then come the No. 2 seeds with West Virginia (10-1), Ohio State and Kansas State (both 15-1), and Villanova (20-1). No. 3 seed Georgetown is 25-1, but it's interesting to note that Michigan State, a No. 5 seed, is also 30-1 along with No. 3 Baylor. No. 4 seeds Wisconsin and Maryland are both 40-1. But, wait, what happened to No. 3 Pittsburgh and New Mexico? They're both 60-1, along with Purdue and Tennessee, a No. 6 seed. The Hilton lists 49 teams and then a field (which includes 15 teams) at 100-1.

First-round thoughts

Here are my early leans for the opening-round games: San Diego State +3 1/2 vs. Tennessee, Old Dominion +2 vs. Notre Dame, Northern Iowa +1 1/2 vs. UNLV, Florida +4 vs. BYU, Louisville +1 vs. California, New Mexico State +12 1/2 vs. Michigan State, UTEP + 2 1/2 vs. Butler, and Siena +4 vs. Purdue.

My complete NCAA tournament bracket is linked on this page.:: DAVE TULEY'S PICKS: Complete NCAA Tournament bracket (PDF)

DRF column on March Madness: where to watch, contests, etc.

2010-03-12T19:05:00Z

Below is my Daily Racing Form column that appears in the Saturday, March 13, print issues as well as online at the DRF website.

But first, here's some other notes about what else I'm doing at ViewFromVegas.com.

My NCAA picks have been red-hot as I've gone 3-0 each of the past two days and have an extended run of 34-17 (66.7%) the past three weeks. My plays are posted in a weekly thread -- and updated daily -- at http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/Discussion.aspx?id=225355.

Be sure to be a regular visitor to ViewFromVegas.com and especially the VFV Forums as we get more into March Madness. Another programming note is to mark your calendar for next Tuesday night, from 7-8 p.m. Pacific Time/10-11 p.m. Eastern, for the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast with our special guest co-host John Kelly back in studio to help us preview the NCAA tournament.

The ViewFromVegas website continues to grow. We received a nice boost in visitorship and people signing up this past week after yours truly and the website were mentioned in the sports betting blog of Chad Millman at ESPN.com. That's the link for accessing the story...if you're not an ESPN Insider, you can see the full text at http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/Discussion.aspx?id=225333 (Millman didn't mention me and the site as much as the last time I appeared in his column, but I was the only Vegas expert mentioned twice as well as the only one to receive a link to his website, so that was awesome).

So here's the DRF column:

Sports Betting | Posted 3/11/2010, 4:48 pm

Vegas the place to be for the NCAA tournament

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - In 1998, ESPN the Magazine ran an article entitled "99 Things Every Sports Fan Should Do Before They Die," and attending Caesars Palace for March Madness was No. 5 on the bucket list.

That article was right around the time when Vegas really started marketing itself as the place to be if you couldn't go to the biggest sports extravaganzas such as the Super Bowl, March Madness, and Kentucky Derby, and the article helped feed the frenzy.

Since then, the race and sports books on the Strip have become overcrowded for these events, and you either need to have juice to get a seat or stake your claim at 3 a.m. or you'll be SRO: standing room only. Oh, don't get me wrong, it's still a very exciting atmosphere, and there's nothing like being in a Vegas sports book when two or three games are coming down to the final seconds, especially if the point spreads or totals are in doubt. Some places will hold VIP parties, but if you're reading this and don't have an invitation in hand, you're probably out of luck.

If that ESPN article were rewritten today, the mecca would have to be the Las Vegas Hilton, which not only has its spacious SuperBook with plenty of space in the back by the bar and slot-machine area for the overflow crowd, but also opens its 1,400-seat theater - which is where Elvis played - to the public with every game shown on big screens. Admission is free, and the Hilton has food and drink specials.

The Orleans and the South Point also open their ballrooms for free viewing parties. For those coming to town next week, my last piece of advice on picking a place to watch the games would be to pick up the daily newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, in the days before the tourney to see if any other property is adding public parties in its showrooms or ballrooms.

More March Madness musings

In-game wagering is the latest trend in Las Vegas sports books. This is when the book posts an adjusted point spread or total at commercial breaks as the game is in progress, similar to re-betting a game at halftime, except there are many more opportunities to jump in after you've seen how the two teams are playing. This option is offered at the M Resort and the Venetian on the Strip with the use of hand-held devices so you can quickly place wagers from your seat (or anywhere else in the casino).

* Lucky's is offering a $100,000 parlay card if you go 15 for 15 against the spread in the opening-round games next Thursday and Friday at its 13 sports books in the state. The card will be available starting Tuesday, with lines on all 32 games. The card costs $5 per try.

The M Resort has a $10 card with a $50,000 prize, though you must pick all 32 first-round games straight up.

* Lucky's also is in the contest game with the $6,000 College Basketball Bailout Contest. It costs $10 and if you buy three entries you get a fourth free. Players pick every NCAA tournament game against the spread, meaning you have to go in every day of the tourney (which is what all of these contests require because the goal is to get you to their properties). All entry fees are returned as prize money, with $3,000 for first, $1,500 for second, and $500 for third. There also is a $1,000 prize for the leader at the end of the opening weekend.

* The Leroy's Race & Sports Book network is using its "Three N Out" format for its NCAA contest. The entry fee is $25, with a maximum of five per person. Players make one selection per entry each day against the spread and an entry isn't eliminated until it has three losses. The prize is winner-take-all, though it will be distributed among all contestants who make if through the entire tournament (11 contest days). The deadline to enter this contest is 5 p.m. Wednesday.

* Station Casinos is going with a straight survivor format, using its Last Man Standing rules. The entry fee is $25; buy four and get one free. One loss and you're out. The prize pool is guaranteed at $25,000, though last year it topped $40,000.

* Howard Schwartz of the Gambler's Book Shop (at its new location of 1550 E. Tropicana Ave., Suite No. 4) called to say it would have the "Blue Ribbon College Tournament Guide," edited by Chris Dortch, available in the store on Tuesday afternoon. The Blue Ribbon magazines, which also cover college football, are among the most comprehensive publications, and are very popular with Las Vegas wise guys, even though they don't talk about point spreads. For those outside Vegas, the issue is available via overnight shipping at blueribbonyearbookonline.com. Obviously, it has a short shelf life.

Quick note on Rachel vs. Zenyatta

A number of books here in Las Vegas have posted a head-to-head matchup on Rachel Alexandra vs. Zenyatta, regardless of where or when they meet (the prop doesn't specify the April 9 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park). The Wynn was the first book to post this after Rachel Alexandra won the Eclipse Award, and it had it Rachel Alexandra -150 (odds of 2-3) with Zenyatta at +130 (odds of 6.5-5). Money came in early on Zenyatta, and the line was adjusted even lower when Oaklawn became the likely venue. It is now Rachel -125, with Zenyatta at +105, which are the same odds at Lucky's. The reigning Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra has been as low as -110 (with Zenyatta also -110) at the MGM Mirage properties.

* Coming Wednesday, Tuley's NCAA bracket and a look at the opening lines and updated odds to win the tournament.

NFL ATS Standings, plus 3 picks for Week 12

2009-11-27T19:15:00Z

This week's column that I did for Saturday's editions of Daily Racing Form (and which has been available at DRF.com since Thursday night) focuses on the best and worst teams against the spread so far this season in the NFL as well as best over/under teams. Download the chart:

NFL ATS Standings with over/unders (using ViewFromVegas Consensus Line)

After going through the chart, I then try to continue my 8-1 run that I've posted at DRF:

By DAVE TULEY

The Saints and Colts are both 10-0 and making a lot of NFL headlines as they top the standings in their respective division and conference while shooting for perfect seasons and vying for home-field advantage, but they don't top the against-the-spread standings, which we keep an eye on here in Las Vegas.

The Saints are "just" 7-3 against the spread. Oddsmakers have caught up to them after the Saints covered their first five this season, and the Saints are only 2-3 since. The Colts are 6-4 and barely escaped dropping their fourth straight ATS as they covered the closing 1 1/2-point spread last week in a 17-15 win over the Ravens.

Meanwhile, the surprising team at the top of the ATS standings (that is, surprising only if you haven't been backing them) is the 49ers at 6-2-2 against the closing number. A quick caveat here as closing numbers can vary from sports book to sports book. The last few years, since the Stardust closed, I had been using the Las Vegas Hilton as the book of record. However, there have been more and more times that the Hilton will be off on a game at closing and not reflect the consensus around town (for instance, last week the Colts closed at -1 1/2 at most books but the Hilton had it pick-em, and the while every other books closed the Packers -6 vs. the 49ers the Hilton moved to 5 1/2 before close). So, I'm going with my own consensus line to more accurately reflect the overall way Vegas views the closing numbers.

The 49ers have been the most profitable for bettors both percentage-wise (75 percent after discarding pushes) and on a net-profit basis of +3.8 units if you had laid 1.1 units to win 1 on all their games so far. Tied for second are the Saints at 7-3 (+3.7 units) and the Falcons, despite being only 5-5 straight-up.

The Broncos, though they have cooled off against the spread, are still the best "under" team as they were 8-2 heading into their Thanksgiving night game against the Giants. The Saints and Falcons have been the best "over" teams at 7-3 with the Falcons going over in their last five.

The hottest teams lately have been the Titans with four straight covers and the Chargers, Chiefs, and Rams with three straight. The Giants had failed to cover five straight heading into their game with the Broncos, losers of four ATS in a row.

I went 2-1 with my top plays last week as the 49ers covered the +6 1/2 posted play and the Titans beat the Texans outright on Monday night. The lone loss was the Ravens falling just short vs. the Colts. That makes the bankroll plays 8-1 over the last three weeks. I will try to keep that going with three more (hopefully) live dogs this Sunday:

Texans +3.5 (-120) vs. Colts

Despite losing against the Colts last week, I'm going to continue fading them as they continue to squeak by with their victories. Just three weeks ago, these two teams played in Indianapolis and I won with the Texans +7 1/2 as they lost 20-17 and nearly forced overtime. Now, the Texans get them at home and are still getting more than a field goal. I think the Colts' undefeated season ends here.
PLAY: Texans for 1 unit.

Panthers +3 vs. Jets

I'm not sure the right team is favored here. The Jets are reeling with three straight losses after a fast start and the Panthers had covered three straight before losing to Miami a week ago Thursday, and there's no shame here as the Jets have lost to the Dolphins twice. Give me the hotter team plus the points. I don't give the Jets any edge for home-field advantage and it might be a disadvantage if the boo-birds come out.
PLAY: Panthers for 1 unit.

Jaguars +3 (even) vs. 49ers

Okay, I know I just wrote a bunch about the 49ers being the best bet so far this season, but there are definitely times you have to go against the trends (especially when the oddsmakers catch up with a team). The 49ers are much better as underdogs (3-0-2) than they are as favorites (3-2). Meanwhile, the Jaguars are playing much better of late despite a non-covering win over the Bills last week. Their underrated defense can shut down the 49ers and score enough for the upset.
PLAY: Jaguars for 1 unit.

Last week: 2-1 for a net profit of 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season record: 20-15, including 2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 4.5 units.

Tuley's DRF article on underdogs bouncing back in NFL, plus three Week 11 picks

2009-11-20T15:00:00Z

Below is my column that appears in Saturday's print edition of Daily Racing Form and is also available online at: http://drf.com/news/content/10.html (which you can bookmark to find my weekly columns as they're posted on that page each Thursday evening).

Before getting to that, a few reminders that the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast has been moved up to 7 p.m. Tuesdays for the live show, which can be accessed along with the archives at http://www.lvrocks.com/details.php?id=149. This week's show was again co-hosted by John Kelly and if you missed it you already missed Dave Tuley's lean on Colorado +17 vs. Oklahoma St. Thursday night (the Buffaloes nearly pulled off the huge upset before losing 31-28 but still easily covering the spread) and guest handicapper "tpking" giving the Dolphins over the Panthers. Download the 11/17/09 podcast to hear more analysis of this weekend's games, or check the weekly Tuley the Tout thread in the VFV Forums for updated advice on the games in relation to the line movement.

Also of note, you can still enter the ViewFromVegas.com weekly football contests to win your choice of a free month of LIVE ODDS service from vegasinsider.com or dinner with Dave Tuley. This is the last weekend of the college contest but the NFL contest will continue through the end of the regular season with college bowl contests and an NFL playoff contest to come. See the VFV Forums for details.

Sports Betting | Posted 11/19/2009, 4:36 pm

Underdogs reverse trend

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - Parity is back in the NFL.

It didn't look like that earlier this year when everyone was talking about the huge gap between the haves and the have-nots. After the first four weeks of the season, favorites were 36-26 against the spread (58.1 percent) and it was looking like it might be Year of the Favorites II like we had in 2005 when chalk covered at a 58 percent clip over the entire season.

I wrote that oddsmakers were being forced to inflate the lines to balance the action and that underdogs would rebound. I just didn't expect it to happen this fast as underdogs have gone 8-5, 10-3, and 9-5-1 against the spread the past three weeks - a combined 27-13-1 (67.5 percent) - and dogs are actually 73-69-2 on the season heading into Week 11.

Double-digit underdogs - a situation that usually occurs when an elite team is facing a poor one - have long been a profitable play in the NFL, but that wasn't the case early this year when the favorites were dominating. After Week 7, double-digit dogs were a woeful 5-11 against the spread but the past three weeks they've gone 7-3-1 (70 percent) to once again be worth a look despite being only 12-14-1 overall.

We've also seen this reversal of fortune with individual teams. The Saints started the season by winning and covering their first six games against the spread, but even though they've mananged to stay undefeated in the NFL standings, the oddsmakers have caught up with them and they've failed to cover each of the past three weeks: a 35-27 win over the Falcons as a 10 1/2 point favorite; a 30-20 win over the Panthers as an 11 1/2-point favorite, and a 28-23 win over the Rams as a 14-point favorite.

The Colts started 5-1 against the spread but even though they're also still unbeaten in the standings, they have lost three straight for their point-spread backers as they only beat the 49ers 18-14 as 12 1/2-point favorites, the Texans 20-17 as 7 1/2-point favorites, and the Patriots 35-34 as 2 1/2-point favorites.

Another team, the Broncos, started 6-0 straight-up and against the spread but have failed to cover the last three weeks and lost all three games outright.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Titans started 1-5 ATS but have bounced back with outright upsets of the Jaguars and 49ers before routing the Bills last week as a favorite. Similarly, the Panthers started 1-5 ATS but had covered their last three games before losing to the Dolphins on Thursday night. The Buccaneers were 1-6 ATS after their trip to London in which they got routed by the Patriots, but since their bye week they've beaten the Packers 38-28 as 9 1/2-point underdogs and nearly upset the Dolphins last week as 10-point dogs before losing 25-23.

And those are just the most extreme examples in a season that so far has gone from one extreme to the other.

Bankroll back in black

The run of underdogs has certainly turned my season around as I went 3-0 against the spread here for the second week in a row last week and have gone a combined 14-0-1 ATS with all recommended NFL plays the past two weeks on my ViewFromVegas.com website. In the Hilton SuperContest and Leroy's Pro Challenge, I'm 9-1 the past two weeks to move within striking range of the leaderboard with seven weeks to go. It's impossible to keep those gaudy win percentages, but I'm confident that there's still value in a lot of the lines from the overinflation we saw earlier in the year. While I'm sure I'll use some of the double-digit dogs as some of my contest plays, I'm going to focus here on three games where I'm mostly looking at the matchups and underdogs that I think have a great chance to pull outright upsets and not just cover the inflated lines.

Ravens +1 vs. Colts

I've won by fading the Colts three straight weeks and I see no reason to change with them now going on the road to Baltimore. Ray Rice should have a field day against the Colts' poor rush defense and that should open up the passing game for Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco. Add in the Ravens' physical defense that can disrupt the Colts' offensive attack and this looks like where Indy's undefeated run ends.
PLAY: Ravens for 1 unit.

49ers +6.5 vs. Packers

When facing tough competition lately, these two teams have been involved in tight, low-scoring games - the 49ers' 18-14 loss to the Colts, the 49ers' 10-6 win over the Bears, the Packers' 17-7 win over the Cowboys - so I see this being played in a similar fashion with 6 1/2 points likely coming into play as it could very well come down to a field goal either way. If this were a shootout, I'd side with the Packers, but the 49ers' running game with Frank Gore and bend-but-don't-break defense gives them the edge here.
PLAY: 49ers for 1 unit.

Titans +4.5 vs. Texans

When these teams met in Week 2, the Titans were favored by 7 points at home and the Texans won 34-31. That was when the Titans were playing terrible, but they've reeled off three straight impressive victories yet we're still seeing an 11 1/2-point swing in the line (which is a lot, even with factoring in the switch of home-field advantage). The Titans are the better team right now, in my opinion, with Chris Johnson leading the league in rushing and taking the pressure off Vince Young, plus an improved defense. And don't tell me the Texans have an edge because they are fresh off their bye: teams off byes started 6-0 ATS this year but are only 5-13-2 since (does not include two games where teams off byes faced each other).
PLAY: Titans for 1 unit.

Last week: 3-0, including 1-0 on my 2-unit play of the Bengals +7 vs. the Steelers, for a net profit of 4 units. Season record: 18-14, including 2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 3.6 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit).

2009 Breeders' Cup previews, plus FREE contest at ViewFromVegas.com

2009-11-06T13:57:00Z

Below are my two Breeders' Cup stories that I wrote for Daily Racing Form that highlight seminars being held in Las Vegas, parties, future-book updates, special wagers and contests. But speaking of contest, I'd first like to let you know about a FREE contest we're holding at ViewFromVegas.com using the 14 races on the two days of the Breeders' Cup. You make $600 in mythical wagers on Friday, Nov. 6, and then $800 in mythical wagers on Saturday, Nov. 7. The person winning the most fake money will win 2-3 nights hotel room in Las Vegas on their next visit (you're on your own getting here), dinner for two with yours truly, and show tickets for two (and I might join you if I like the show LOL). All plays must be posted in the OFFICIAL contest thread so you must sign up (for free) for the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. The deadline for Friday's plays is 12:30 p.m. PST on Friday, so you must sign up and post your plays by then to be eligible. Click here for full details and to enter

Good luck this weekend.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

Published in the Daily Racing Form editions of Saturday, Oct. 31

By DAVE TULEY

LAS VEGAS - Race and sports book directors always look forward to the Breeders' Cup, but maybe never as much as this year.

The Breeders' Cup is a great event that brings out the regular horseplayers who usually bet even more, plus all the casual racing fans or those who just bet during the Triple Crown and on the BC. The hotels love it because those customers also help fill the hotel rooms, the restaurants, and the showrooms, as well as the casinos, so it's always a money-making weekend.

That's even more important this year, not only with the struggling economy but also due to the fact that the sports books have been knocked around pretty good by the NFL favorites covering at a high rate. Actually, let me amend that. Favorites are 56-46-1 against the spread this year, which is just less than 55 percent and not disastrous on its own. Where the books have been hurt is the public has been backing the top teams and hooking them up in parlay as well as betting against the dregs of the league. Last week was one of those "perfect storms," where almost every steam play won and bettors cleaned up with parlays. A look at the list of teams that covered says it all: Chargers, Colts, Packers, Steelers, Patriots, Jets, Saints, Cowboys. All are traditionally popular teams, with the Saints being a new addition, and for good reason as they're now 6-0 both straight up and against the spread. It didn't help that most of them were playing teams that are considered dead on the board (Chiefs, Rams, Browns, Buccaneers, and Raiders). Many bookmakers called it Black Sunday and one of their worst days ever.

So, the thought of the two-Breeders' Cup days on next Friday and Saturday, Nov. 6-7, with most of the wagering on race days being parimutuel, has to be music to bookmakers' ears. They can open the doors, take the bets, take their cut, and cheer for the players to cash lots of tickets so they keep churning the money through the windows.

To that end, the race books are rolling out the red carpet to attract players to their properties starting with the days leading up to the BC. The Pick the Ponies Invitational, which costs $500 to enter and wasn't sold out as of press time, runs Wednesday through Friday of BC Week at the Las Vegas Hilton.

There also are a number of BC seminars planned starting Thursday at 6 p.m. with one at the Palace Station (with Ralph Siraco of the Raceday Las Vegas radio shows, Richard Saber of the GamingToday weekly newspaper, and Palace Station racebook manager Vic Vivio) and another at the Lucky's racebook at the downtown Plaza with Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Lucky's marketing director Dan Sharpio, and yours truly, Dave Tuley. Up in the state capital of Carson City, near Reno, Lucky's will run a concurrent seminar at the Casino Fandango with Steve Fierro.

On Friday night, after the first day of BC action, Sam's Town on the east side of Las Vegas host a seminar with Gordon Jones, Patrick McQuiggan, and John Kelly.

While Friday is a big day of racing, it's nothing compared to how packed the race books will be for Saturday's card (especially when you throw in a full schedule of college football compared to next Friday's relative dead sports schedule). Every race book in Vegas will be having a BC party, but if you're looking for a little more space and bigger screens to watch the races on, the two biggest free parties are at the Orleans and the South Point in their ballrooms. The Orleans is sweetening the pot with a 10 a.m. seminar with Siraco and Jon Lindo going over the card. Up in Reno, the Grand Sierra has a seminar with Fierro and Lucky's CEO Joe Asher that features drawings for $100 bets on all eight races Saturday.

One horse racing bet where the books can lose money is the futures. The Wynn Las Vegas has the most extensive offering of futures with odds on nine of the BC races. The most intriguing horse is Zenyatta as everyone waits to hear if she will take on the boys in the Classic. As of Wednesday, when the Wynn's John Avello updated his lists after the pre-entries were announced, Zenyatta was offered at 7-2 in the Classic and the 2-1 favorite in the Ladies' Classic (odds are subject to change). Rip Van Winkle was the 8-5 favorite in the Classic. Other chalk were Blind Luck, 3-1 in the Juvenile Filles; Forever Together, 5-2 in the Filly and Mare Turf; Mastercraftsman, 5-2 in the Dirt Mile; Lookin at Lucky, 9-5 in the Juvenile (he's also the Wynn's 15-1 favorite in the 2010 Kentucky Derby); Goldikova, 4-5 in the Mile; Zensational, 7-5 in the Sprint; and Conduit, even money in the Turf. You can download the full lists at ViewFromVegas.com.

Published in the Daily Racing Form editions of Saturday, Nov. 7

By DAVE TULEY

Every year, some Las Vegas horseplayers make a trek to the Breeders' Cup. But even more prefer to stay here and enjoy the races from the comfort of their home race book. Yes, the crowds are big here, too, but the betting lines are shorter than at the track and the race books have added special wagers and promotions.

In fact, some bets can be made only in Nevada race books:

* The most popular are head-to-head matchups in which the horse you bet only has to finish ahead of the other listed horse in the matchup. As of Thursday, the Wynn Las Vegas and the network of Lucky's race books had both posted at least two matchups per race on Saturday's card.

In the Classic, Wynn opened Zenyatta -150 vs. Summer Bird +120 while Lucky's had it Zenyatta -160/Summer Bird +130. In the Turf, Lucky's went with Conduit -190 vs. Spanish Moon +160, while Wynn made Conduit -150 vs. the better finish of either Spanish Moon or Dar Re Mi +120. In the only other common props, Wynn made Lookin at Lucky -160 in the Juvenile vs. D' Funnybone +130, while Lucky's had Lookin at Lucky -140/D' Funnybone +110, and both had Zensational -125 vs. Gayego +105 in the Sprint. All odds are subject to change.

* The twin quinella wager is a Vegas mainstay in which bettors try to hit the quinella on two races by paying for the betting combinations before the first race takes place (no exchanges). Smaller books usually offer daily jackpots of $500 or $1,000 while Station Casinos has a daily $5,000 twin Q. Usually on big days Stations will increase the pot to $10,000, but for this Saturday's Breeders' Cup, Stations is offering a guaranteed $20,000 prize pool while Lucky's is offering $5,000. Those are good indicators that the books are prepared for large crowds and big handle.

* Jerry's Nugget, just north of downtown Las Vegas, is holding a small handicapping contest on Saturday's BC card with a $10 entry fee and a $500 prize pool. Jerry's Nugget also has a special head-to-head matchup parlay card devised by former Las Vegas bookmaker Mark Marion.

It should be a great time all over town.

2009 Kentucky Derby recap/Preakness preview

2009-05-16T09:09:00Z

Super winner wishes he had $2 ticket

By Dave Tuley

When 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird pulled away from the field to win the 135th Kentucky Derby, the scene here in the Las Vegas race and sports books was just like it was probably everywhere else in this country: the yells and screams as the field entered the stretch - when everyone thought they had a shot to cash - were replaced by stunned silence with just a scattering of shrieks by those who played their lucky No. 8 or otherwise landed on the unlikely upsetter.

Here in Vegas, there were also cheers from behind the betting counters as Derby future-book operators got the longshot they needed to erase the liability they faced on a number of the top contenders.

John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas director of race and sports, said he had just 10 tickets that were sold on Mine That Bird, mostly for odds of 150-1 last fall when the eventual Canadian 2-year-old champion was going to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished 12th and last. Avello said there was one ticket for $300, now worth $45,000, but that and the others were swallowed up by all the money on the hundreds of other 3-year-olds that were available in his future book since last fall.

Avello also reported that not a single ticket was sold on Mine That Bird's 400-1 odds to win the Triple Crown (Avello posted individual Triple Crown on all those in the Derby field), so his book sent all those bets to the bank as well.

It wasn't a surprise that the lines to cash tickets after the race were very short, but most of those in line were very happy with the payoffs of $103.20 to win on Mine That Bird and $2,074.80 for the $2 exacta and $41,500.60 for the $2 trifecta. I was watching the race in the grand ballroom at the South Point, where they started cashing tickets before asking big winners to go to the race book proper to cash their signers and fill out the requisite paperwork for Uncle Sam.

The biggest payoff from Derby 135 was the $1 superfecta, worth $278,503.20. You had to go to the other far end of town, at the Santa Fe Station on the northwest side, to find the one and only superfecta ticket cashed in the state of Nevada.

Phil, who only consented to be interviewed if his last name wouldn't be used because "I don't want my full name to come up on a Google search as having won all this money," walked into the Santa Fe on Derby Day, one of only three days a year he bets the horses, with the other two being the Preakness and Belmont. The 46-year-old car salesman boxed the 2, 5, 7, 8, and 16 and went to play in the poker room. He returned to the race book to see the race on the big screen and saw Mine That Bird, the No. 8, pull away from the field with the No. 16 Pioneerof the Nile, No. 2 Musket Man, and No. 7 Papa Clem battling for second, but seven lengths clear of the rest of the field.

"I knew I hit it, but I had no idea what it would pay," said Phil, who knew enough that he wanted the longer-priced Musket Man to win the photo for second. That didn't happen, but he was still thrilled to see the payoff, though it left him with a sense of regret.

"I went there with $220," Phil said. "When I asked for the $2 superfecta box, it came up as $240 and I was $20 short, so I just had them make it a $1 box otherwise I would have won half a million."

So how did he come up with the horses for his big payday?

"I lived in Chicago and a friend of mine and I used to play the 2-5-8, and one time we went to a dog track in Wisconsin and hit a $1,200 trifecta for $6," Phil said. "So I've been playing it ever since. We had a Derby pool at work where you put in $10 and pick a horse, and I drew the 7 and 16, so I just added those to my box."

The big winner said he's setting up college funds for his two grade-school children and taking the family on a nice summer vacation, but isn't quitting his job, especially after paying $69,000 in taxes. He also said he doesn't plan to bet the ponies except for the Triple Crown races. When interviewed on Wednesday night, he hadn't decided what horses he was going to use in his five- or maybe now a six-horse superfecta box in the Preakness, but this reporter kindly pointed out that Derby winner Mine That Bird was the No. 2, with the No. 5 being Friesen Fire and No. 8 General Quarters.

Odds stacked against Triple Crown

Lucky's was the first race book in Vegas to post odds on whether Mine That Bird will sweep of the Triple Crown. It opened the "no" at -2,000 (risk $20 for every $1 you want to profit) and the Lucky's marketing director reported that it took a five-figure bet right away and adjusted the odds to -2,700 with +1,500 (win $15 for every $1 wagered, or odds of 15-1) that he would win the Preakness and then the Belmont. With the news that Rachel Alexandra was entering the fray, the line at Lucky's increased to -3,500/+2,000 as of Wednesday night. At the Wynn Las Vegas, they put up that prop later and have held the line at -2,500 on the "no" with +1,500 on the "yes." Head-to-head matchups at both Wynn and Lucky's were expected to be available by Friday.

* Results of interesting Derby prop bets available in Las Vegas:

Avello said he lost some on the time prop. It was set at 2:01.60 with the over set at -115, and more money came in on the over, pushing it to -200 by race time. Mine That Bird won in 2:02.66, not bad on a sloppy track but still over the total. The saddlecloth number of Mine That Bird made the "even" the winner of the odd/even prop, which had odd as the heavy favorite after the post-position draw at -160, but then when No. 13 I Want Revenge was scratched, Avello adjusted it to even -130/odd +110. The over/under win mutuel of $18.50 clearly went over. That prop had opened with the over at -115, but with the conventional wisdom that the top four contenders (I Want Revenge, Friesen Fire, Pioneerof the Nile, and Dunkirk) had the best collective chance to win, the under was bet to -210. Avello said that even after I Want Revenge was scratched that people were still betting the under. At Lucky's, they had a bet on who would finish last. No. 20 Flying Private, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee, pulled up the rear. He was the fifth choice to finish last at 9-1. Mine That Bird was co-third choice at 8-1.

* Total handle on Derby 135 in the state of Nevada was $4.6 million, according to Vinny Magliulo at Las Vegas Dissemination Company, the state's wagering hub. That was down nearly 10 percent from last year's $5.1 million, mostly attributable to the down economy but also to the scratch of I Want Revenge and a sloppy track.

* Tuley the Tout's Preakness selections: 1. Mine That Bird; 2. Pioneerof the Nile; 3. Musket Man; longshot: Big Drama.

Kentucky Derby future-book update; props bets in Vegas

2009-05-01T09:33:00Z

The column below is from Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form. If you're in Las Vegas on Friday night, May 1, join us from 6-7 p.m. at the Plaza race book downtown for a free handicapping seminar with yours truly, Dave Tuley; Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal; and Dan Shapiro, marketing director for Luckys.

Vegas books pulling for Derby longshots

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - The four horsemen of the apocalypse are Famine, Pestilence, Destruction, and Death. As far as Las Vegas race book directors are concerned, they're riding I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, and Friesan Fire in Saturday's 135th running of the Kentucky Derby.

All four have taken significant action throughout the spring in this city's Derby future books, so it's not much of a revelation that the race book directors will be cheering for anyone but that quartet to be wearing the roses. Derby future books are usually a fairly easy proposition for the books to win, since action can be taken on hundreds of 3-year-olds but only 20 make the gate and there's only one eventual winner. Besides, when contenders on the Derby trail get declared from the race, that money is locked up. On the surface, this year appears no different, with horses like Midshipman, Old Fashioned, and The Pamplemousse dropping by the wayside, and a look at the Kentucky Derby Future Wager shows that 11 of the individual entries in Pool 3 less than a month ago didn't even make it to the entry box, including late defections Quality Road and Square Eddie. However, John Avello, director of race and sports book operations at Wynn Las Vegas, who runs the biggest Derby future book in town, said he could still lose because of those four top contenders still in the race.

"My future book is in better shape than it was a few weeks ago," Avello said, "but not as much as you might think. A lot of those defections were horses that were already defective."

That sentiment was echoed by others, including Jay Kornegay, race and sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton.

"We're not looking too bad on futures like most years but still have a couple we'll lose on," Kornegay said. "Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge are not good for us. Almost everyone else we'll be in pretty good shape. With that said, I would have still preferred to see the best field possible. I don't like to see contenders getting hurt and missing the Derby."

The Lucky's race and sports books, located in the Plaza in downtown Las Vegas, the Grand Sierra in Reno, and the Terrible's casinos in Southern Nevada, are giving bettors another opportunity to bet on or against the top four contenders with a "Fab Four vs. the Field" proposition wager. The bet opened at -350 (risk $3.50 for every $1 you want to profit) if you want the combination of I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire and +270 (win $2.70 for every $1 risked) on any other horse.

"This year, it's all about those Fab Four horses," said Dan Shapiro, marketing director for Lucky's. "We wanted to offer a prop that pits them against the rest of the field. It's always nice to have 16 horses going for you against four. But then again, those four all figure pretty tough, and there are a handful of horses this year that have little or no shot."

For those looking to find the worst of the worst, Shapiro said the Lucky's books also will be offering "odds to finish last" as well as other props and head-to-head matchups.

In the past, Avello has usually limited his matchups to 10, with one horse against one other horse, but this year he said he's posting matchups with each of the top four against each other, kind of their own round-robin tournament.

The Wynn already had several props posted even before the Wednesday draw. The running time of the race was put up a few weeks ago. The over/under was set at 2:01.60, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. Since then, money has come in on the over, which as of Thursday was at -150 with the under +130.

A prop on the win mutuel payoff was set at $18.50, with the over actually favored at -140. The top four contenders, if you believe conventional wisdom or the Derby morning line by Mike Battaglia, would be the only ones to come in under that price, but the under has been bet all the way to -210 favoritism, with the over at +180.

The prop on whether the winner's saddlecloth number would be odd or even opened -110 each way. After the draw, with more contenders getting odd numbers, the odd was adjusted to -160, with even at +140.

As of Thursday morning, I hadn't seen any Vegas books offering a prop tied to Saturday's other big sporting event, the Ricky Hatton-Manny Pacquiao fight at the MGM Grand. The bodoglife.com offshore book had the winning margin (in lengths) in the Derby vs. the number of knockdowns in the bout.

As for any horse winning the Triple Crown this year, the Wynn opened the prop last fall with the "no" as the -900 favorite and a price of +750 for those who thought a horse could sweep the series. As of Thursday, the "no" was down to -750, with the "yes" at +550.

"The big pops come in on the no, but all the little bets on are on the yes," Avello said. "I've been booking that prop for 20 years and obviously haven't had to pay off on the yes, but I've been in some bad spots with some very good horses."

We'll see if one of the four makes him sweat again.

* Tuley the Tout's Derby selections: 1. Regal Ransom; 2. Pioneerof the Nile; 3. Mr. Hot Stuff; longshot: Musket Man.

Preview of Vegas Derby festivities; NFL Week 1 opening lines

2009-04-25T18:02:00Z

This is from my column in Daily Racing Form's print editions of Saturday, April 25. if you're in Vegas for Derby Weekend, please join me at the Plaza race & sports book on Friday, May 1, from 6-7 p.m. as I give a handicapping seminar with Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Dan Shapiro, marketing director for Lucky's:

By Dave Tuley

Las Vegas continues to struggle through the recession like everywhere else. Bankruptcies (and rumors of more to come). Layoffs. Cutbacks up and down the line.

So, as the Kentucky Derby approaches, one might have assumed that the hotels here would chop all the frills and amenities that have traditionally made this city turn into Churchill Downs West in the days leading up to the first Saturday in May.

But one would be wrong.

If anything, there's a noticeable increase in the number of handicapping seminars being hosted by race books around town and all-day parties on Derby Day. In fact, by the time you read this, the first Derby seminar in town will have already taken place Thursday at the Fiesta Henderson. But there's more:

* Thursday, April 30: Ralph Siraco of the "Raceday Las Vegas" radio show and Richard Saber of GamingToday will join Palace Station race book manager Vic Viveo at 6 p.m. to discuss the Derby, and probably offer their insight on Friday's Oaks card as well.

* Friday, May 1: Yours truly, Dave Tuley, will be joined by Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Dan Shapiro of Lucky's race & sports books at the Plaza for the "Lucky's Derby Seminar sponsored by ViewFromVegas.com."

In Reno, Lucky's CEO Joe Asher and Steve Fierro will be hosting another seminar at the Grand Sierra race book at 6:30 p.m.

Santa Anita publicity director/horse owner/breeder/Renaissance man Mike Willman will join Gordon Jones and Patrick McQuiggan of the "Track Talk" radio show at 6 p.m. in the Sam's Town race book for the longest-running seminar in town.

* Saturday, May 2: Siraco and handicapper Jon Lindo of the "Lindo Report" will kick off the actual Derby Day festivities with a seminar at 10:15 a.m. in the Mardi Gras Ballroom at the Orleans.

Obviously the race books are fighting to bring in what they know will be a captive audience for the biggest single race of the year. And even though the main event will last just about two minutes the casinos also haven't cut back on hosting bigger all-day parties.

The biggest and longest-running free Derby party is the one at the Orleans, which opens up its ballroom with big screens and plenty of betting windows. There are also food and drink specials all day long. The South Point, which is owned by the former owner of the Orleans, Michael Gaughan, will have a similar setup.

For those looking to step up from the "stadium food" type of setup, the Stratosphere has teamed up with Del Mar to host a party from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. in its "American Superstars" showroom. Del Mar is bringing a group of players from California for the event, but the public is invited to join in. The cost of admission is $59 but includes a buffet, an open bar, plus welcome gifts and drawings. For those looking for a place to stay, a better deal would be $129 for two nights at the hotel plus two passes to the party. Call 800-827-1514 for details.

Of course, every race book in town will be packed during the Derby Day card and most will have Derby T-shirts and/or mint julep glasses (check with the book for minimum wager, which is usually $20 or $25).

NFL Week 1 lines already posted

If you think the Derby is creating a lot of talk around Vegas race and sports books, you should hear the football discussions. Obviously the talk of the football world this weekend is the NFL draft, but the sports books here in Vegas didn't wait for the draft to put up lines for the opening week's games. Last Tuesday, the NFL announced the full-season schedule and less than 24 hours later the Las Vegas Hilton had its Week 1 lines posted, starting with the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers opening at home vs. the Titans on Thursday night, Sept. 10, through a Monday night double-header, Sept. 14. Here were the openers (home teams in CAPS):

STEELERS -5 vs. Titans

FALCONS -4 vs. Dolphins

RAVENS -7 vs. Chiefs

PANTHERS -3 (+105) vs. Eagles

Broncos -3 vs. BENGALS

Vikings -3 vs. BROWNS

TEXANS -3.5 vs. Jets

COLTS -7.5 vs. Jaguars

SAINTS -11 vs. Lions

Cowboys -3 (Even) vs. BUCCANEERS

CARDINALS -7 vs. 49ers

GIANTS -6 vs. Redskins

SEAHAWKS -7 vs. Rams

PACKERS -3 vs. Bears

PATRIOTS -9.5 vs. Bills

Chargers -7 vs. RAIDERS

The wise guys in town jumped all over the opening numbers with the biggest move being the Ravens bet from -7 to -9 within the first day of wagering. As more casinos posted lines, other significant adjustments were the Broncos being lowered to a 1-point favorite over the Bengals (with the Palms making it pick-em) and the Panthers being lowered to a 1 1/2-point choice over the Eagles.

The rest of the lines are all within 1 point of the openers and there won't be much change between now and the start of the season barring any major trades or injury news. Even the draft doesn't affect the lines much because the oddsmakers know the worst teams usually get the best players but also have more holes to fill, plus rookies aren't expected to excel right away, though there are exceptions such as Matt Ryan last year with the Falcons.

Upcoming seminars and handicapping tournaments in Vegas (including yours truly at the Plaza on May 1 for Derby seminar)

2009-04-12T16:10:00Z

Note: In addition to the events in the column below (which appeared in the Saturday, April 11, issues of Daily Racing Form), I'll be co-hosting the "Lucky's Derby Seminar sponsored by ViewFromVegas.com" at the Plaza in downtown Las Vegas on Friday, May 1, from 6-7 p.m. along with Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Lucky's marketing director Dan Shapiro. Please join us there.

Also, while at ViewFromVegas.com, check out the discussions in our Forums as we have a lot of hot handicappers giving picks in both horse racing and sports (I'm on a 6-2 run with baseball underdogs and over 3 units of profits so far this baseball season). In addition to the MLB threads, get the ViewFromVegas on the Masters as well as other sports.

As Derby heats up, so does contest calendar

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - This Saturday marks the end of the major Kentucky Derby prep races with the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland next weekend is the last chance for 3-year-olds to get enough graded earnings to make the Derby field.

I Want Revenge vaulted to the top of the future books with his scintillating come-from-behind victory in the Wood Memorial last Saturday. But all the horse racing talk here in Vegas isn't only about how to make money on the Derby trail, but also how to learn to make money on a day-to-day basis or in big handicapping tournaments.

Here's some news and notes with that in mind:

April 13

The Orleans race and sports book will host a seminar at 9 a.m. Monday with jockey Alex Solis and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Free coffee and donuts will be provided and a Q&A session will by hosted by Ralph Siraco of the "Raceday Las Vegas" radio show. Siraco is sure to ask Solis about The Pamplemousse and the injury that removed the colt from Derby consideration. Solis rode The Pamplemousse, owned in part by the jockey's son Alex Solis II.

April 17-18

The South Point, owned by former Coast Casinos owner Michael Gaughan, is hosting its Finale Handicapping Contest next Friday and Saturday. The South Point has held qualifying tournaments for next week's contest throughout the past year, and those qualifiers will be joined by anyone else who wants to put up the $500 entry fee and go for an estimated prize pool of $100,000 (based on 200 entrants).

There is a limit of two entries per person with no partners allowed. Contestants will make 10 mythical $20 across-the-board wagers each day, with three races each day being mandatory as chosen by South Point management. The first $2 of each bet will be awarded at full track payouts, with the remainder capped at 20-1 for win, 10-1 for place, and 5-1 for show.

The top 30 finishers will cash, with the winner receiving 35 percent of the pool ($35,000 if South Point meets its goal of 200 players).

For more information, call toll free (866) 780-7223 or e-mail horseplayers@southpointcasino.com.

April 17-18 (and beyond)

The Red Rock Resort is hosting the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship for the third straight year on Jan. 29-30, 2010, and Station Casinos has announced its schedule of local tournaments. The winners of these tournaments earn coveted NHC berths, and Stations has reduced the entry fees for the qualifying events from $200 to $100.

The first of these will be at the Santa Fe Station on April 18, with the top two finishers winning NHC seats. In addition, the Stations are holding mini $25 qualifiers for players to earn their way into those qualifying events. The Santa Fe will host one of those mini-qualifiers on April 17, with the top two finishers earning spots in that Saturday's tourney to try for the NHC seats.

Believe me, I know it's confusing, but to recap: You can enter for $25 on April 17 to try to get in cheaply for the April 18 NHC qualifier, or you can just buy into the April 18 contest for $100.

The other $100 buy-in events that have NHC seats on the line are May 23 at Aliante Station; June 13 at Sunset Station; and June 20 at Green Valley Ranch. The other $25 mini-qualifers (which earn berths into the $100 events) are May 1 at the Fiesta Henderson; May 8 at the Fiesta Rancho; May 15 at the Texas Station; May 22 at the Aliante Station; June 12 at the Sunset Station; and June 19 at the Green Valley Ranch.

On top of all that, the Red Rock will host a $500 buy-in contest on July 4-5, with three NHC berths up for grabs.

All of the entry fees will be returned as prize money in all of those contests.

April 20 (but act quicker)

The Pick the Ponies Invitational is held three times a year at the Las Vegas Hilton. There is a $500 entry fee, but if you sign up by the early-bird deadline, it costs just $400, with the Hilton kicking the extra $100 into the prize pool. The tourneys are held the Wednesday through Friday of Derby Week (April 29 through May 1 this year) and Breeders' Cup Week, as well as a newer contest in August leading up to the Pacific Classic. The field is capped at 200 entries so the Hilton can hold the contest in its SuperBook, and while the August tourney has yet to sell out, the Derby and BC events usually sell out well before the early-bird deadline, which is April 20 for the upcoming contest. As of Thursday, there were fewer than 20 spots available at the $400 price.

ViewFromVegas of future-book odds on multiple sports

2009-02-20T14:32:00Z

Below is my column that is appearing in Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form. It runs the gamut of future-book odds in horse racing, baseball, college and pro basketball, hockey, and college and pro football.

This is also a good chance to remind everyone about the free ViewFromVegas poker tournament next Saturday, Feb. 21, at 5:05 p.m. VFV Time (aka 5:05 p.m. Pacific). You can read all the details in the VFV Forums. You can use the link on the ViewFromVegas.com home page to sign up for a Bodog account (which is also free, but you can deposit if you like to play their live tables and tournaments) so you can download the poker software. If you do sign up, you get a 10% bonus on top of your deposit, plus you can earn up to 100% more based on your play.

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - When monitoring the parimutuel betting in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which is run by Churchill Downs, against the fixed-odds futures offered by race books here in recent years, it has usually been a case of Nevada bettors setting the pace and the Kentucky Derby Future Wager bettors following suit.

That's because most Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools are held on weekends with major Derby preps, with the betting ending on Sunday, so the Kentucky Derby Future Wager bettors often have to bet after a horse has performed well and the price has been driven down. Future-book bettors in Nevada, on the other hand, are able to lock in a horse's price before they go out and win on a Saturday or Sunday.

We saw a different dynamic last weekend as Churchill's Pool 1 closed on Sunday with Oaklawn's Southwest Stakes and Santa Anita's San Vicente being run on Monday. Old Fashioned, who was available at 15-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton over the weekend, was bet down to 7-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, the lowest odds of the 23 individual entries available for wagering (the "field of all other 3-year-olds" closed as the 9-5 favorite).

Old Fashioned, trained by Larry Jones, justified the support by going out and winning the Southwest by three lengths as the 2-5 favorite. Immediately after the victory, the odds were lowered to 7-1 in the future book conducted by the Lucky's race books and to 8-1 at Wynn Las Vegas.

Among other top contenders as we approach the bigger Derby prep races, Pioneerof the Nile (13-1 in Pool 1) has been bet down to 10-1 at Lucky's this week and 8-1 at Wynn; Friesan Fire (18-1) is 10-1 at Lucky's and 15-1 at Wynn; and the filly Stardom Bound (22-1) is 22-1 at Lucky's and 15-1 at Wynn.

The remaining parimutuel pools are March 12-15 and April 2-5, but Derby futures in Las Vegas are available every day.

Sports book notes

This is as good a time as any to get an update on the future book odds in other sports:

* Let's start with baseball because all major leaguers, except for those participating in the World Baseball Classic, are due at their spring training camps by Sunday. Despite the distraction of Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees are the clear favorite to win the World Series at 14-5 at the Las Vegas Hilton. The Red Sox, Mets, and Cubs are tri-second choices at 7-1 with the Angels and Phillies at 12-1 and the Rays, last year's Cinderella team, and the Indians at 15-1. The Yankees have loaded up with so much talent this off-season that even though they play in the toughest division in baseball, they are still odds-on to win the AL East at 10-13, with the Red Sox at 2-1 and the Rays 4-1. Other divisional favorites are the Mets (13-10 to win the NL East), Cubs (5-8 in the NL Central), Dodgers (7-5 in the NL West), Indians (2-1 in the AL Central), and Angels (5-11 in the AL West). And since A-Rod is on everyone's mind, he is the second choice to hit the most homers in the majors this season, with defending champ Ryan Howard the 7-2 choice to repeat.

* In college basketball, it seems like the No. 1 team in the country gets knocked off every week or two, but all that jockeying for position hasn't changed the fact that North Carolina has been the favorite in Las Vegas sports books all season long as well as the top team in the Oddsmakers' Top 30 by Las Vegas Sports Consultants. The Las Vegas Hilton has the Tar Heels as the 5-2 favorite to cut down the nets in Detroit on April 6, with UConn a solid second choice at 7-2, Pittsburgh and Louisville at 10-1, Duke at 15-1, and Wake Forest at 20-1.

* On the pro level, the Lakers came out of the All-Star break as the 3-2 favorites to win the NBA title with the defending champion Celtics at 2-1. The Cavaliers are at 3-1.

* In the NHL, the Red Wings and Sharks are vying for favoritism. The Hilton has the Red Wings at 11-4 (just less than 3-1) and the Sharks at 3-1. There's a dropoff to the Capitals and Sabres at 8-1.

* Football season just ended, but that doesn't mean people stop betting on the No. 1 wagering sport. For the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on Jan. 7, 2010, the Florida Gators and Tim Tebow are the 7-2 favorite to repeat with USC and Oklahoma both at 9-2.

* In the NFL, Tom Brady said Thursday that he will be ready for opening day, and the oddsmakers obviously believe him as the Patriots are the 6-1 favorite to win Super Bowl XLIV at Dolphins Stadium in Miami on Feb. 7, 2010. The defending champion Steelers are 10-1 along with the Colts, Giants, and Cowboys, while the Chargers, Eagles, Titans, Ravens, and Panthers are all 15-1. The Cardinals are 30-1.

Reprint of Friday the 13th column

2009-02-13T19:29:00Z

It's Friday the 13th, so it must mean it's time to drag out my Daily Racing Form column that originally ran Oct. 13, 2000. It's definitely a ViewFromVegas on Friday the 13th. However, I'll try to resist the temptation to do this again next month as we have back-to-back Friday the 13ths.

This is also a good chance to let you know about the free ViewFromVegas poker tournament next Saturday, Feb. 21, at 5:05 p.m. VFV Time (aka 5:05 p.m. Pacific). You can read all the details in the VFV Forums. You can use the link on the ViewFromVegas.com home page to sign up for a Bodog account (which is also free, but you can deposit if you like to play their live tables and tournaments) so you can download the poker software. If you do sign up, you get a 10% bonus on top of your deposit, plus you can earn up to 100% more based on your play.

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - T.G.I.F. may not be a valid saying today.

It's Friday the 13th, the unluckiest of days, especially if you suffer from triskaidekaphobia (the fear of the number 13). Be afraid, be very afraid. Don't break any mirrors, don't walk under any ladders, don't open an umbrella indoors, and don't let a black cat cross your path. And don't bet on any hockey teams unless the goalie is named Jason and carrying an ax instead of a stick and glove.

Las Vegas is very aware of this superstition and does it best to help visitors avoid this unlucky number. At McCarran International Airport, there is no Gate 13. In addition, no airlines have a Flight 13 and many airlines delete the 13th row of seats.

As a standard practice, most hotels don't have a 13th floor. However, there are some notable exceptions. The Las Vegas Hilton, Circus Circus, and Imperial Palace all have 13th floors. The recently closed Desert Inn had a 13th floor, but its rooms were numbered starting with 3100. When Caesars Palace was built in 1966, they included a 13th floor but only made the Roman Tower 14 stories high because 15 was considered an unlucky number for Caesar, as in March 15, the Ides of March.

Reference materials vary on the origins of this widely held fear. Some say it came from Norse mythology in which 12 gods gathered for a banquet at Valhalla (no, one wasn't Tiger Woods) and Loki, the spirit of strife and mischief, crashed the party. Balder, the gods' favorite, died, leading to the superstition that if you have 13 people for dinner one will die within a year.

Others say it comes from the Greek mathematician Pythagoras, who in the sixth century B.C. said the number 12 embodied perfection. He implied that by trying to surpass it, 13 was unstable, imperfect, and evil. The most popular theory is that the superstition comes from the 13 (Jesus plus his 12 disciples) at the Last Supper and the belief that Jesus was crucified on a Friday.

In the Middle Ages, Friday was "hangman's day." A coven has 13 witches, and Friday has been known as the Witches' Sabbath. Chapter 13 bankruptcy isn't considered good, especially for creditors. And if you think gas prices are outrageous, consider that there are 13 OPEC countries.

Maybe you've tried to avoid all bad omens on this day. Maybe you're carrying a lucky rabbit's foot and a four-leaf clover and only intend to gamble at Binion's Horseshoe or the Lady Luck. But don't feed any $1 bills into any slot machines.

Why? Grab a $1 bill from your wallet. Look at the eagle on the back. It's holding 13 arrows in one talon and a branch with 13 leaves and 13 berries in the other. Above his bald head, there are 13 stars surrounded by 13 clouds. Over his chest is a shield with 13 horizontal lines over 13 vertical stripes. E. Pluribus Unum has 13 letters, and the pyramid to the left has 13 levels. Our founding fathers obviously weren't superstitious when they approved 13 colonies.

The majority of the research for this article was done at Gamblers Book Shop ("Gambling and superstition go hand in hand," said Peter Ruchman, general manager of the store, when I told him my topic). The GBS is located on 11th Street, just north of Charleston. When I left, I wondered if there was a 13th Street (my research told me that's a rarity in most cities).

I headed north on 11th, turned right on Bonneville and then left on Maryland Parkway. I came to a strange fork in the road and opted to veer to the right. I found myself on a stretch of road called Rue 13, which proceeded to intersect with 13th Street. As Count Floyd used to say on "SCTV": "Ooooohhhh, scaaarrry." I lived to write about it, but I won't be going to that hellish intersection on Friday.

Despite doubts that creep into my head, I truly believe you make your own luck. Besides, luck is relative. One person's misfortune is another person's luck. If bettors are having a bad day, that means the casino is lucky, and vice versa. You might carry a rabbit's foot for good luck, but it sure wasn't lucky for the rabbit, was it?

And I may be tempting fate: This column is exactly 13 paragraphs long.

Super Bowl XLIII wrapup (ViewFromVegas with every graded prop)

2009-02-02T19:34:00Z

By DAVE TULEY (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com 2009)

LAS VEGAS -- Super Bowl XLIII was a wise guy's wet dream. When the game was over with the Steelers beating the Cardinals 27-23 (after a projected final of 27-20 if you go by the Steelers -7 and total of 47), most stats come out as expected, even if the details were totally unexpected with a pedestrian first half (except for James Harrison's 100-yard interception return that brought a crazy end to the half) and a wild back-and-forth finish.

Sharp bettors who liked the Cardinals won with their wagers of +7 and even +7.5, while those who preferred the Steelers loaded up on the depressed money line of -215 or thereabouts. With the side and total BOTH falling within 6 points, all teaser bettors cleaned up as well.

It'll be interesting to see how this all impacts the win/loss bottom line for Nevada sports books, which should be out by the middle of this week. Action was steady at most books Sunday so a big dropoff isn't expected from last year's $92 million in handle.

In our annual ViewFromVegas.com exclusive, we grade every prop bet. The Harrison INT return (which not only won wagers for those betting there would be a special teams or defensive TD, but also gave the Steelers a first-half cover at 17-7 (they were -3.5 and only up 3 with the Cardinals about to score). But that was nothing compared to how the fourth-quarter action seemed to send individual player and team props over their respective totals with each play.

Go to this page to download the PDF file: Super Bowl XLIII graded props from Las Vegas Hilton

NFL end-of-regular-season report

2009-01-02T19:26:00Z

This article originally appears in Daily Racing Form editions of Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009, and takes a look at how the season unfolded from the Patriots and Cowboys being the top two teams in the Super Bowl futures before the season to not even make the playoffs, while the Falcons and Dolphins were at the bottom of the list and are still playing:

By Dave Tuley

Before we get to this weekend's NFL wild-card games, I think it's important to look back at the season and see how we got to this point.

Back in the opening week of September, I doubt anyone could have predicted which would be the 12 playoff teams. For starters, the Patriots and Cowboys would have been on most people's list, since they were the preseason favorites in each conference. Yet they didn't make it out of December.

The Patriots, the 3-1 favorite to win it all in the Las Vegas Hilton future book and lower at most of other sports books in town, lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season, making the Cowboys the new Super Bowl favorite at 5-1. The Cowboys won their first three games and four of five before the pivotal overtime loss at Arizona in Week 6 in which Tony Romo was injured, making the undefeated Titans the new fave. The Titans and defending champion Giants (who didn't get much preseason respect at 25-1 to repeat as champs and were the third choice to win the NFC East at 9-2) proved to be the class of the league the rest of the way, with the Steelers and Panthers coming on strong before losing Week 16 games to the leaders to settle for the No. 2 seeds.

But the biggest surprises came from the assumed dregs of the league. If you checked the Super Bowl futures back in early September, the bottom two teams in the Hilton's list were the Falcons and Dolphins at 200-1 (the 0-for-16 Lions were 75-1). In fact, after the Dolphins lost to the Jets in the season opener, they were raised to 300-1.

As we enter the playoffs, here are the Super Bowl futures: Giants 9-4, Steelers 4-1, Titans 6-1, Panthers 7-1, Eagles 10-1, Colts 10-1, Ravens 10-1, Falcons 15-1, Vikings 15-1, Chargers 15-1, Dolphins 30-1, Cardinals 60-1.

Other interesting betting notes from the season:

* Over/unders were virtually even, as unders held a 123-122-11 edge in all games. Underdogs/favorites were also nearly a dead heat as dogs pulled off a slight 122-120-6 victory (eight games closed at pick-em to account for the difference).

* I've written often about how home-field advantage wasn't much of an edge all year, and road teams ended with a record of 134-115-6 against the spread (the Chargers-Saints game in London isn't included). This is interesting to note since the four wild-card road teams opened as favorites for this weekend's matchups. However, keep in mind that home underdogs (who were a woeful 30-42-1 on the season) did at least finish strong at 13-6 against the spread the last four weeks of the season.

* Double-digit underdogs finished 22-9 against the spread. Cardinals at Giants is the only likely playoff matchup in which we might see a double-digit spread; perhaps Dolphins at Steelers.

* The Titans finished with the best spread record at 12-3-1. The push was when they beat the Packers, 19-16 in overtime, as a 3-point favorite at the Hilton, which I use as my sports book of record. However, the line was 3 1/2 most of the week and that's where it closed at most other books, so if someone wants to say there was a three-way tie with the Titans, Giants, and Ravens at 12-4 ATS, I won't argue with them. The worst spread record was by the Jaguars at 4-12, with the Broncos at 4-11-1 (the push being their controversial 1-point victory/push over the Chargers in Week 2). The Redskins were the best under team at 12-3-1 despite going over in their finale vs. the 49ers, and the Cardinals were the top over team at 11-5.

For the full chart of NFL ATS records and totals, go to VFV's Facts & Trends page.

"Pick the winner theory" ... bowl picks, and NFL Week 16 picks

2008-12-20T06:52:00Z

This is my Daily Racing Form column this weekend that leads with a look at bowl games and then into my NFL picks...the NFL ATS Standings link is at the bottom.

Sports Betting | Posted 12/18/2008, 8:15 pm

It's not that hard - just pick winners

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - The college bowl season kicks off Saturday and handicappers are spending countless hours trying to figure out who is going to beat the spread.

However, a handicapper friend of mine, Mike Rose, 65, of San Antonio, says all you have to do to show a profit over the long run is figure out who is going to win the game - thus his "pick the winner theory."

He's no professional handicapper. In fact, he's retired from the apartment supply business, though he still consults for the company he created in 1976 and then sold in 1999. He posts at ViewFromVegas.com under the name tpking, with the "tp" being an abbreviation for a vital product.

"I started noticing in the early 80s that even though I'd be taking an underdog and getting 7 or 8 points, it would rarely ever materialize that the points would come into play," Rose said. "Either the favorite would win and cover or the underdog would win the game. You could stick the points where the sun don't shine 90 percent of the time. If your team can't win, they can't cover."

Rose doesn't keep exact statistics on that, so I asked handicapper Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com. He confirmed that Rose's theory has been borne out - at least in bowl games. He said that since 1980, the straight-up winners in bowl games are 468-81-9 (85.2 percent) against the spread. And except for the years in which the Patriots won the Super Bowl by a field goal, the vast majority of Super Bowls also haven't had the points come into play.

While I've had a very good NFL season, I pretty much broke even in college football, but I did much better on games that Rose and I agreed upon in our e-mail correspondences. I tend to go more on what I see from teams on TV, more the equivalent of a trip handicapper in horse racing, while Rose is more of a numbers man.

"I use a math model that a friend of mine who went to MIT developed," Rose said. "I have to update with the results every week, but it gives a statistical comparison of the teams."

Rose says the "pick the winner theory" applies best when the game means everything to both teams, such as in a conference championship game in college football or an important regular season game. Rose points to this Sunday's Giants-Panthers matchup for the No. 1 seed in the NFC as a classic example of such a matchup.

So, here are the bowl games in which Rose and I agreed on betting the underdogs. I'm taking them with the points, but Rose says the better bet might be to take the money line since the points probably won't matter and the payoff will be bigger when you win: Navy over Wake Forest, Notre Dame over Hawaii, West Virginia (pick-em) over North Carolina, Louisiana Tech over Northern Illinois, Oregon over Oklahoma St., Pittsburgh over Oregon St., Penn St. over USC, Virginia Tech over Cincinnati, and Oklahoma over Florida.

Most readers know I have a hard time laying any points, but these are the favorites we agreed on: TCU over Boise St., Florida St. over Wisconsin, California over Miami-Fla., Rutgers over North Carolina, Nevada over Maryland (my top play of the bowl season), and Iowa over South Carolina.

Bills +7 vs. Broncos

The Broncos are (still) trying to clinch the AFC West title, and a lot of people are on them because they "need to win" and the line has been inflated. But the saying in Vegas is just because a team needs to win, doesn't mean it will win (or cover). If the Broncos could turn it on whenever they wanted, they wouldn't be in this position. Besides, I've had a lot of success fading the Broncos this year, and that's reflected in the fact that even though they're 8-6 in the traditional NFL standings, they're a lowly 4-9-1 in the NFL against-the-spread standings, third worst to the Jaguars and Rams at 4-10. The Bills played well last week on the road before giving the game away vs. the Jets. They would have won if they stuck with the running game, and the Broncos are weak against the run and should get a steady diet of Marshawn Lynch.

PLAY: Bills for 2 units.

Falcons +3 1/2 vs. Vikings

This is a key game in the NFC playoff race. Minnesota quarterback Tavaris Jackson played well last week, but faces a tougher test with the Falcons' defense. The loss of Pat Williams leaves a hole in the Vikings' defensive line that Michael Turner should exploit on the fast turf. That should slow down the pass rush and allow Atlanta QB Matt Ryan to have a good day as well. This fits in my thinking as a "pick the winner" game.

PLAY: Falcons for 1 unit.

Chiefs +4 vs. Dolphins

This is a case of two teams that have been very good to me. Despite the Dolphins' winning record, I've faded them many times as a favorite (they're 1-4 against the spread in that role), while the Chiefs are 2-12 in the NFL's standings but 7-6-1 against the spread with three straight covers. Again, the Dolphins need this game in the AFC East race, but I'll take the few extra points built into the line and take the Chiefs as a live underdog again.

PLAY: Chiefs for 1 unit.

Last week: 2-1 for a net profit 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 23-12-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 8.6 units.

* Complete NFL against-the-spread standings (PDF)

NFL trends and ATS Standings through Week 11

2008-11-21T07:08:00Z

Here are some NFL betting trends through Week 11.

* Home-field advantage is non-existent this year for the most part. Last week, road teams went 11-5 against the spread and are 88-67-4 ATS this season, just over 60 percent.
* That trend has really been evident as home underdogs, usually a strong play, have struggled all year and sit at 15-28 ATS (note: that means road favorites, which I usually try to avoid, are 28-15 ATS (65.1 percent)
* Double-digit underdogs continue to shine with the Raiders vs. the Dolphins and the Lions vs. the Panthers to improve to 17-1 ATS against the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton (note: I've heard slightly different numbers being mentioned, but obviously there can be differences in grading). The Bengals did fail on Thursday night to drop the trend to 17-2 on the year. The only other game at double digits as of Thursday was the 49ers +10 vs. the Cowboys.
* As a whole, favorites and dogs have pretty well split with faves holding a slight edge at 76-75-5.
* On the individual team front, the Titans are atop the NFL ATS Standings (linked at the bottom of the page, including over/under tendencies of each team as well as streaks in both categories) at 9-0-1 after rallying to win and cover vs. the Jaguars last week. The Giants have covered five straight games to stand at 8-2.
* On the bottom end of the spectrum, the Rams, Jaguars, and Vikings are 3-7 ATS. The Bills have failed to cover four in a row after a hot start.
* In totals wagering, the Texans are 9-1 with the over and this week face the Browns, who have gone over in three straight games, with a total of 49 1/2.
* The Redskins have the best record with the under at 7-2-1.

I also wrote a little about the Steelers-Chargers ending last week in my column that appears in Saturday's editions of Daily Racing Form.

Chart for NFL ATS Standings through Week 11

NFL ATS Standings through Week 10

2008-11-14T12:54:00Z

This is from my weekly column that appears in Daily Racing Form on Saturdays and appears online by Thursday nights. Hopefully you're able to download the file at the bottom.

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - Every so often, whether on a radio show or out and about in the sports books here in Vegas, I'll be drawn into a conversation about who is going to make the NFL playoffs.

It's seems like a straightforward question for anyone interested in sports, but I find myself reaching for a sports section to check the standings to make sure I know the division leaders and who is in the wild-card chase. That's because I'm much more in tune with how teams are doing against the spread and whether they're overachieving or underachieving vs. the bookmakers' and public's perceptions.

Last week we looked at the best and worst teams in the NFL versus the spread and in over/unders. I've received many requests for the betting records of all 32 teams, so that's included in the accompanying chart.

Maybe now people will understand why I would be surprised to notice that the Chiefs are 1-8 in the official standings because they've been very competitive against the spread at 5-4. And the Broncos are leading the AFC West at 5-4? You could have won a bar bet with me because they're tied with the Texans for worst in the league at 2-6-1 against the spread.

It is a little clearer at the top. The teams with the best records are also covering the most. The Titans beat the Bears 21-14 last week as 3-point favorites to hold a commanding NFL lead at 8-0 vs. the spread. The Giants and Ravens, both of whom have covered a league-high four consecutive games, are next at 7-2.

The Ravens also have gone over in four straight games. Who would have thought of the Ravens/over as a profitable parlay with a rookie quarterback and a strong defense? The Texans, who played the Ravens last week and the game flew over late, are the best over team at 8-1. The best under teams, at 6-2-1, are the Panthers, Redskins, and Patriots (heading into Thursday vs. the Jets).

* Since posting plays in this space starting a few weeks into the season, I felt badly that I hadn't done as well here as my entries in the Hilton SuperContest and the Leroy's Pro Challenge. But last week I went 3-0 here, and 5-0 in both the contests to move up to second at Leroy's and a tie for 16th at the Hilton. Hopefully, I'll extend the streak with three more underdogs Sunday.

Broncos +6 vs. Falcons

As stated above, the Broncos have been poor against the spread, and we've all seen how the Falcons have exceeded expectations this year, but I'm taking Denver in this spot for much the same reasons I had the Seahawks last week vs. the Dolphins. The Falcons (like the Fish) have been getting more and more respect but now their lines are getting inflated. This has gone from 3 1/2 last week to 6 at deadline and could climb higher. The Falcons are good, but not good enough to overcome inflated lines. Granted, they could cover this week as well, but it'll catch up with them soon enough (another case in point being the Patriots last year).

PLAY: Broncos for 1 unit.

Lions +15 vs. Panthers

Double-digit dogs went 2-0 against the spread last week and are 15-1 on the season. The other choice this week is the Raiders +10 1/2 vs. the Dolphins. Although those Raiders played these Panthers tough last week and I again think the Dolphins are overpriced, I like the Lions-Panthers game better because the Lions continue to put forth a good effort, despite the lopsided score versus the Jaguars last week, and the Panthers and coach John Fox tend to grind out wins.

PLAY: Lions for 1 unit.

Chargers +5 vs. Steelers

I've had a lot of success going against the Chargers this year, but I like them here in the role of an underdog. Pittsburgh has the top defense in the league, but I think the Chargers finally get their breakout game, especially with the Steelers having questions on offense with Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker less than 100 percent. It's nice to back a talented dog like I did last week with the Colts vs. these same Steelers.

PLAY: Chargers for 1 unit.

Last week: 3-0 for a net profit of 3 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 12-8-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net loss of 2 units.

NFL ATS Standings

NFL betting trends from my DRF column

2008-11-07T20:11:00Z

Here is my DRF column that is appearing in the print editions of Saturday, Nov. 8: http://drf.com/news/article/99749.html

Titans unbeaten in more ways than one

By Dave Tuley

LAS VEGAS - As we're past the halfway point of the NFL season, with every team having played eight games except for the four teams on a bye this weekend having nine in the books, it's a good time to look at the best and worst teams so far this season from a betting perspective along with the overall betting trends.

The Titans are the top story in the NFL - the only undefeated team at 8-0. They're also the only unbeaten team against the spread, though that distinction comes with an asterisk. Last week, the Titans were a 5 1/2-point favorite over the Packers and the money steadily came in on the Packers and drove it down to 3 1/2. On Sunday morning, the Las Vegas Hilton moved the line to 3 (with -120 attached for those looking to back the Titans at that price) and that's where it closed. At every other book in Vegas, the line closed at 3 1/2, but since I've used the Hilton closing numbers in my stats since the Stardust closed in 2006, I'm grading it as a push even though the vast majority of bettors who backed the Titans were tearing up their tickets after they won 19-16 in overtime.

(A word of warning: Whenever anyone quotes point-spread records, it's wise to take them with a grain of salt, especially if that someone is trying to sell you a pick. There are many cases where games fall around the point spread or total and records can be misleading.)

Even if that game were counted as a loss, however, the Titans still would be in sole possession atop the NFL ATS Standings at 7-1. The next-best record is shared by the Giants, Eagles, Cardinals, and Ravens at 6-2 (the only record in dispute there would be the Cardinals as they were a 4 1/2-point dog vs. the Cardinals in Week 8 and lost 27-23 while half the books in Vegas closed the line at 4, which would have made it a push and the Cardinals a still respectable 5-2-1 against the spread.

The worst team against the spread, despite a 4-4 record in the regular standings, is the Broncos at 1-6-1. They haven't covered since their opening-week rout of the Raiders. The Jaguars and 49ers are also underperforming versus the spread at 2-6, with the Texans at 2-5-1.

Those same Texans have shown a tendency to get in shootouts as they are 7-1 with the over in totals wagering. Their only under was in Week 8 when they scored 35 points against the Bengals but allowed only six when the total closed at 45. The Cowboys are 6-3 with the over, but they're idle this week.

Another idle team, the Redskins, is the top under team at 6-2-1, though the Panthers and Patriots are 5-2-1.

League-wide betting trends

In league-wide wagering stats, favorites are 62-58-4 against the spread through the first nine week on all games that didn't close at pick-em. Favorites got off to a big lead in Week 1 by going 11-5 ATS. Underdogs have won the last four weeks, including going 8-5-1 last week, to close the gap.

Home field advantage hasn't mattered much as road teams actually hold a 66-59-4 ATS edge. Home dogs, usually a profitable subset, have struggled as a result, standing at just 14-21.

But another of my favorite plays, double-digit underdogs, has thrived as they are 13-1 against the spread so far this season. The only loss was in Week 7 when the 49ers closed as a 10-point dog vs. the Giants and trailed 27-17 late in the game only to give up a safety and give the Giants a spread-covering 29-17 victory.

Coming into the season, the AFC was considered the much stronger conference (and was a six-point favorite in the Super Bowl prior to Tom Brady's injury), but now the NFC is 18-12-1 ATS in interconference games and 1 1/2-point Super Bowl favorite at the Hilton.

Let's try to put all this information to use with my top three plays from Sunday's NFL card and hope to get the record here more in line with my 29-16 record that has me tied for fifth in the Leroy's Pro Challenge.

Chiefs +15 vs. Chargers

As stated above, double-digit dogs are 13-1 ATS, so there's reason to get off this trend until it stops. But more than that, who are the Chargers to be laying more than two touchdowns to anyone? They are one of the biggest underachieving teams so far this year. Plus, the Chiefs, despite their 1-7 record in the standings, are a respectable 4-4 ATS and are coming off back-to-back spread covering losses to the Jets and Buccaneers and will give another solid effort against a divisional rival.

PLAY: Chiefs for 1 unit.

Ravens pick-em vs. Texans

This game opened with the Texans favored and - after Houston QB Matt Schaub was announced as out - has seen the Ravens as high as -1 before looking like the line's going to settle right at pick-em. Some people think the Texans are better with Sage Rosenfels, but if the Colts could spin him around, imagine what the Ravens' defense can do. As stated above, the Ravens have exceeded expectations and are 6-2 ATS while the Texans are 2-5-1 and haven't stopped anybody except for the Bengals.

PLAY: Ravens for 1 unit.

Seahawks + 8 1/2 vs. Dolphins

This pick has nothing to do with the above trends (since it doesn't look like it's going to steam to 10). This is a case of a Dolphins team that has been playing well (and I was on them versus the Broncos last week in their outright upset), but they're not this good to be laying more than a touchdown to anyone. This totally looks like a letdown spot for them.

PLAY: Seahawks for 1 unit.

Last week: 2-1 for a net profit of 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 9-8-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net loss of 1 unit.

Tuley the Journalist

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This is from my weekly column that appears in Daily Racing Form on Saturdays and appears online by Thursday nights. Hopefully you're able to download the file at the bottom.By Dave Tuley

NFL betting trends from my DRF column

Titans unbeaten in more ways than one

This is from my weekly column that appears in Daily Racing Form on Saturdays and appears online by Thursday nights. Hopefully you're able to download the file at the bottom.

By Dave Tuley