This article originally appears in Daily Racing Form editions of Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009, and takes a look at how the season unfolded from the Patriots and Cowboys being the top two teams in the Super Bowl futures before the season to not even make the playoffs, while the Falcons and Dolphins were at the bottom of the list and are still playing:


By Dave Tuley

Before we get to this weekend's NFL wild-card games, I think it's important to look back at the season and see how we got to this point.

Back in the opening week of September, I doubt anyone could have predicted which would be the 12 playoff teams. For starters, the Patriots and Cowboys would have been on most people's list, since they were the preseason favorites in each conference. Yet they didn't make it out of December.

The Patriots, the 3-1 favorite to win it all in the Las Vegas Hilton future book and lower at most of other sports books in town, lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season, making the Cowboys the new Super Bowl favorite at 5-1. The Cowboys won their first three games and four of five before the pivotal overtime loss at Arizona in Week 6 in which Tony Romo was injured, making the undefeated Titans the new fave. The Titans and defending champion Giants (who didn't get much preseason respect at 25-1 to repeat as champs and were the third choice to win the NFC East at 9-2) proved to be the class of the league the rest of the way, with the Steelers and Panthers coming on strong before losing Week 16 games to the leaders to settle for the No. 2 seeds.

But the biggest surprises came from the assumed dregs of the league. If you checked the Super Bowl futures back in early September, the bottom two teams in the Hilton's list were the Falcons and Dolphins at 200-1 (the 0-for-16 Lions were 75-1). In fact, after the Dolphins lost to the Jets in the season opener, they were raised to 300-1.

As we enter the playoffs, here are the Super Bowl futures: Giants 9-4, Steelers 4-1, Titans 6-1, Panthers 7-1, Eagles 10-1, Colts 10-1, Ravens 10-1, Falcons 15-1, Vikings 15-1, Chargers 15-1, Dolphins 30-1, Cardinals 60-1.

Other interesting betting notes from the season:

* Over/unders were virtually even, as unders held a 123-122-11 edge in all games. Underdogs/favorites were also nearly a dead heat as dogs pulled off a slight 122-120-6 victory (eight games closed at pick-em to account for the difference).

* I've written often about how home-field advantage wasn't much of an edge all year, and road teams ended with a record of 134-115-6 against the spread (the Chargers-Saints game in London isn't included). This is interesting to note since the four wild-card road teams opened as favorites for this weekend's matchups. However, keep in mind that home underdogs (who were a woeful 30-42-1 on the season) did at least finish strong at 13-6 against the spread the last four weeks of the season.

* Double-digit underdogs finished 22-9 against the spread. Cardinals at Giants is the only likely playoff matchup in which we might see a double-digit spread; perhaps Dolphins at Steelers.

* The Titans finished with the best spread record at 12-3-1. The push was when they beat the Packers, 19-16 in overtime, as a 3-point favorite at the Hilton, which I use as my sports book of record. However, the line was 3 1/2 most of the week and that's where it closed at most other books, so if someone wants to say there was a three-way tie with the Titans, Giants, and Ravens at 12-4 ATS, I won't argue with them. The worst spread record was by the Jaguars at 4-12, with the Broncos at 4-11-1 (the push being their controversial 1-point victory/push over the Chargers in Week 2). The Redskins were the best under team at 12-3-1 despite going over in their finale vs. the 49ers, and the Cardinals were the top over team at 11-5.

For the full chart of NFL ATS records and totals, go to VFV's Facts & Trends page.