Kentucky Derby review . . . Triple Crown odds
Posted by Dave Tuley at 5/8/2008 11:05 AM and is filed under uncategorized 
Big Brown came through in a big way in winning the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby last Saturday. He overcame the No. 20 post as well as questions about his lack of experience with only three previous lifetime starts.
As the 2-1 favorite, he paid $6.80 to win, far below the over/under on the winning horse's pari-mutuel (the line was $16.70 at Wynn Las Vegas and $19 at Station Casinos). With so much on him in the win pool and relatively smaller amounts in the place and show pools, those might have been better value as he paid $5 to place and $4.80 to show.
Big Brown's winning time was 2:01.82, which came under than the 2:02.20 posted over/under.
The even/odd prop came up a winner, though those that took the -110 when it opened had to risk less than those who waiting until after the draw. When Big Brown drew No. 20 and the majority of the other top contenders drew even numbers, the price was adjusted to -300.
A really good bet to have made before the Derby would have been for the Derby winner to win the Preakness. You could have had better than 2-1 odds . . . whereas Big Brown will likely be around 1-2 in the Preakness.
A month ago, Big Brown was available at 20-1 to win the Triple Crown. He was bet down to 10-1 as the Derby drew closer.
After the Derby, the Wynn Las Vegas put up an adjusted Triple Crown on Big Brown at +170 on the "yes" (and -200 on the "no"). Money came in immediately on the "yes" and was lowered to +165 and then to +120 by the end of the weekend. It went as low as even-money (with the "no" at -120) before John Avello reports getting enough on the other side to raise it to -125/+105 as of this writing.
"I probably opened it too high," Avello said. "The true price is probably for him to even money to pull it off, but he has had problems with his feet and there are so many other things that can go wrong so I made it higher. With it going to -120/even and getting bet back, that's probably the right price."
NBA Playoffs
In the first two games of the NBA conference semifinals that started last Saturday, the homes teams (who, of course, are the lower-numbered seeds) won all eight games and were 7-1 against the spread with the lone exception being the Celtics failing to cover on Tuesday night vs. the Cavaliers. My alter ego, Tuley the Tout, has some basketball plays in his blog as he thinks the dogs are going to start barking.
NHL Playoffs
The Stanley Cup playoffs are down to the final four. Again, the teams with home-field advantage are heavily favored. The Detroit Red Wings are -280 vs. the Dallas Stars, who impressively knocked off the San Jose Sharks in the last round. In the battle of Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh Penguins are -190 vs. the Philadelphia Flyers.
As the 2-1 favorite, he paid $6.80 to win, far below the over/under on the winning horse's pari-mutuel (the line was $16.70 at Wynn Las Vegas and $19 at Station Casinos). With so much on him in the win pool and relatively smaller amounts in the place and show pools, those might have been better value as he paid $5 to place and $4.80 to show.
Big Brown's winning time was 2:01.82, which came under than the 2:02.20 posted over/under.
The even/odd prop came up a winner, though those that took the -110 when it opened had to risk less than those who waiting until after the draw. When Big Brown drew No. 20 and the majority of the other top contenders drew even numbers, the price was adjusted to -300.
A really good bet to have made before the Derby would have been for the Derby winner to win the Preakness. You could have had better than 2-1 odds . . . whereas Big Brown will likely be around 1-2 in the Preakness.
A month ago, Big Brown was available at 20-1 to win the Triple Crown. He was bet down to 10-1 as the Derby drew closer.
After the Derby, the Wynn Las Vegas put up an adjusted Triple Crown on Big Brown at +170 on the "yes" (and -200 on the "no"). Money came in immediately on the "yes" and was lowered to +165 and then to +120 by the end of the weekend. It went as low as even-money (with the "no" at -120) before John Avello reports getting enough on the other side to raise it to -125/+105 as of this writing.
"I probably opened it too high," Avello said. "The true price is probably for him to even money to pull it off, but he has had problems with his feet and there are so many other things that can go wrong so I made it higher. With it going to -120/even and getting bet back, that's probably the right price."
NBA Playoffs
In the first two games of the NBA conference semifinals that started last Saturday, the homes teams (who, of course, are the lower-numbered seeds) won all eight games and were 7-1 against the spread with the lone exception being the Celtics failing to cover on Tuesday night vs. the Cavaliers. My alter ego, Tuley the Tout, has some basketball plays in his blog as he thinks the dogs are going to start barking.
NHL Playoffs
The Stanley Cup playoffs are down to the final four. Again, the teams with home-field advantage are heavily favored. The Detroit Red Wings are -280 vs. the Dallas Stars, who impressively knocked off the San Jose Sharks in the last round. In the battle of Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh Penguins are -190 vs. the Philadelphia Flyers.
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