Opening-line report on NCAA tournament betting -- let the madness begin
After the field of 65 was announced on CBS between 3 and 4 p.m. VFV time (that's ViewFromVegas time, aka Pacific Daylight Savings time) Sunday, the race was on to post the opening lines for the first-round games both here in Las Vegas and in the offshore/online world.
A lot of handicappers like to set their own lines so they can compare what the oddsmakers come up with, and we were proud here at ViewFromVegas when our very own Dr. Odds posted his lines here before anyone else in the ViewFromVegas Forums with the first set of lines at 4:34 p.m. and the rest added before 5:30 p.m. Shortly after that time, Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its recommendations to its sports book clients (and, no, we're not suggesting they were waiting to see our numbers). The first bettable numbers this reporter saw were at CRIS (betcris.com and bookmaker.com) at 5:40 p.m. with Pinnacle popping up on the screen around 5:55 p.m.
The first to post numbers in Las Vegas was the MGM Mirage properties run by sports book director Robert Walker at 6:02 p.m. (the Palms went up shortly after, followed by the Wynn and Station Casinos). Walker made his first media call to ViewFromVegas.com at 6:10 p.m. Walker said he followed the tried-and-true method of gathering with five of his supervisors and going over the recommendations of LVSC as well as those of Pete Korner (a former LVSC oddsmaker who has his own odds consulting firm).
"We basically just went through all the games and asked 'Would be lay that, or take that?,' " Walker said. "It's not like the Super Bowl where you set a number and go with it with confidence. You know these numbers will run."
There wasn't a lot of movement on Sunday night as the oddsmakers at first glance appeared to do a solid job of setting the lines. Wisconsin opened -13.5 vs. Cal State Fullerton at CRIS and as high as 13 in town at the Palms and 12.5 at MGM Mirage, but came down to 11.5 and 12, respectively by the end of night while no other lines moved more than half a point. But that will change as the betting will pick up after fans read up on more of the teams and fill out their brackets. Here in town, 99 percent of the action will take place in the 24 hours priors to the start of the madness here on Thursday morning.
"Without a doubt, this is the best sporting event we have," Walker said, echoing the fact that the Super Bowl, which has long been considered the top sports betting attraction in Vegas, is just one day. "Those four days from Thursday through Sunday are the most excitement we see in the sports books. I know I probably say this every year, but this should be a great tournament. The optimism is that there will be Cinderella stories. All the good teams are flawed."
Of course, everyone knows that a No. 1 seed has yet to lose outright to a No. 16, so it's not surprising that those matchups have the highest spreads by far. UCLA is -31.5 vs. Mississippi Valley St., Memphis -25 vs. Texas-Arlington and Kansas -25 vs. Portland St. The other No. 1, North Carolina, will play the winner of Tuesday's play-in game between Mount St. Mary's and Coppin St., which opened with MSM -5.5 at the Wynn though most books kept it off the board as of late Sunday night. The top-ranked Tar Heels will almost surely be favored in the high 30's against either team, and perhaps even in the 40's if facing Coppin St., which lost 20 games in the regular season.
The No. 2 seeds are also heavily favored with Tennessee -20 vs. American, Duke -19.5 vs. Belmont, Georgetown -18 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County, and Texas -17 vs. Austin Peay.
Walker said that bettors certainly aren't afraid to bet underdogs in the tournament with all the upsets of the past. In fact, he said that books have especially had to shade numbers downward in the 5-12 matchups since those upsets have received the most attention. "People want to bet those, even on the money line," he said. This year's 5-12 lines are Notre Dame -7 vs. George Mason, Clemson -6 vs. Villanova, Drake -5 vs. Western Kentucky and Michigan St. -6.5 vs. Temple.
As is usually the case, the tightest lines are in the 8-9 matchups: Mississippi St. -2.5 vs. Oregon. Indiana -1.5 vs. Arkansas and the No. 9 seeds even being favored in two of the games as Kent St. is -1.5 vs. UNLV and Texas A&M is -2 vs. BYU.
The biggest case of a worse-seeded team being a favorite is in the Midwest Regional with No. 10 Davidson -2 vs. Gonzaga. Walker cited that game as one thing wrong with this year's tournament.
"I was kind of disappointed in some of the matchups like Davidson-Gonzaga, Butler-South Alabama and Drake-Western Kentucky," Walker said. "It looks like the committee put the mid-majors vs. each other when I think a lot of people would rather see those teams play ones from the major conferences. Those make for more intriguing matchups."
However, it should be pointed out that no matter what teams are snubbed and how the pairings are made, the NCAA tournament always provides exciting games that go down to the wire either in regards to the outright winners or with the point spread (or totals, or halftime wagers, etc. etc.). Sometimes the whole thing seems to succeed in spite of the powers-that-be.
All of the lines for opening-round games can be viewed at VegasInsider.com. Here are the adjusted future-book odds to win the tournament from the Las Vegas Hilton (note: there are 49 teams listed with 16 as part of the "field"):
UCLA 7-2
NORTH CAROLINA 9-2
KANSAS 5
MEMPHIS 8
GEORGETOWN 12
DUKE 20
TEXAS 18
TENNESSEE 20
LOUISVILLE 20
STANFORD 25
XAVIER 25
WISCONSIN 40
WASHINGTON ST 40
VANDERBILT 40
PITTSBURGH 40
U CONN 50
NOTRE DAME 50
MICHIGAN ST 50
DRAKE 100
CLEMSON 50
OKLAHOMA 100
USC 40
PURDUE 75
MARQUETTE 75
BUTLER 100
GONZAGA 100
MIAMI FL 100
WEST VIRGINIA 100
INDIANA 75
UNLV 200
BYU 200
MISSISSIPPI ST 100
ARKANSAS 100
KENT ST 200
OREGON 200
TEXAS A&M 200
SOUTH ALABAMA 200
DAVIDSON 200
ST MARY'S 100
ARIZONA 75
ST JOE'S 200
KANSAS ST 75
KENTUCKY 200
BAYLOR 200
GEORGE MASON 500
VILLANOVA 500
TEMPLE 500
SAN DIEGO 5000
GEORGIA 1000
FIELD 100
A lot of handicappers like to set their own lines so they can compare what the oddsmakers come up with, and we were proud here at ViewFromVegas when our very own Dr. Odds posted his lines here before anyone else in the ViewFromVegas Forums with the first set of lines at 4:34 p.m. and the rest added before 5:30 p.m. Shortly after that time, Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its recommendations to its sports book clients (and, no, we're not suggesting they were waiting to see our numbers). The first bettable numbers this reporter saw were at CRIS (betcris.com and bookmaker.com) at 5:40 p.m. with Pinnacle popping up on the screen around 5:55 p.m.
The first to post numbers in Las Vegas was the MGM Mirage properties run by sports book director Robert Walker at 6:02 p.m. (the Palms went up shortly after, followed by the Wynn and Station Casinos). Walker made his first media call to ViewFromVegas.com at 6:10 p.m. Walker said he followed the tried-and-true method of gathering with five of his supervisors and going over the recommendations of LVSC as well as those of Pete Korner (a former LVSC oddsmaker who has his own odds consulting firm).
"We basically just went through all the games and asked 'Would be lay that, or take that?,' " Walker said. "It's not like the Super Bowl where you set a number and go with it with confidence. You know these numbers will run."
There wasn't a lot of movement on Sunday night as the oddsmakers at first glance appeared to do a solid job of setting the lines. Wisconsin opened -13.5 vs. Cal State Fullerton at CRIS and as high as 13 in town at the Palms and 12.5 at MGM Mirage, but came down to 11.5 and 12, respectively by the end of night while no other lines moved more than half a point. But that will change as the betting will pick up after fans read up on more of the teams and fill out their brackets. Here in town, 99 percent of the action will take place in the 24 hours priors to the start of the madness here on Thursday morning.
"Without a doubt, this is the best sporting event we have," Walker said, echoing the fact that the Super Bowl, which has long been considered the top sports betting attraction in Vegas, is just one day. "Those four days from Thursday through Sunday are the most excitement we see in the sports books. I know I probably say this every year, but this should be a great tournament. The optimism is that there will be Cinderella stories. All the good teams are flawed."
Of course, everyone knows that a No. 1 seed has yet to lose outright to a No. 16, so it's not surprising that those matchups have the highest spreads by far. UCLA is -31.5 vs. Mississippi Valley St., Memphis -25 vs. Texas-Arlington and Kansas -25 vs. Portland St. The other No. 1, North Carolina, will play the winner of Tuesday's play-in game between Mount St. Mary's and Coppin St., which opened with MSM -5.5 at the Wynn though most books kept it off the board as of late Sunday night. The top-ranked Tar Heels will almost surely be favored in the high 30's against either team, and perhaps even in the 40's if facing Coppin St., which lost 20 games in the regular season.
The No. 2 seeds are also heavily favored with Tennessee -20 vs. American, Duke -19.5 vs. Belmont, Georgetown -18 vs. Maryland-Baltimore County, and Texas -17 vs. Austin Peay.
Walker said that bettors certainly aren't afraid to bet underdogs in the tournament with all the upsets of the past. In fact, he said that books have especially had to shade numbers downward in the 5-12 matchups since those upsets have received the most attention. "People want to bet those, even on the money line," he said. This year's 5-12 lines are Notre Dame -7 vs. George Mason, Clemson -6 vs. Villanova, Drake -5 vs. Western Kentucky and Michigan St. -6.5 vs. Temple.
As is usually the case, the tightest lines are in the 8-9 matchups: Mississippi St. -2.5 vs. Oregon. Indiana -1.5 vs. Arkansas and the No. 9 seeds even being favored in two of the games as Kent St. is -1.5 vs. UNLV and Texas A&M is -2 vs. BYU.
The biggest case of a worse-seeded team being a favorite is in the Midwest Regional with No. 10 Davidson -2 vs. Gonzaga. Walker cited that game as one thing wrong with this year's tournament.
"I was kind of disappointed in some of the matchups like Davidson-Gonzaga, Butler-South Alabama and Drake-Western Kentucky," Walker said. "It looks like the committee put the mid-majors vs. each other when I think a lot of people would rather see those teams play ones from the major conferences. Those make for more intriguing matchups."
However, it should be pointed out that no matter what teams are snubbed and how the pairings are made, the NCAA tournament always provides exciting games that go down to the wire either in regards to the outright winners or with the point spread (or totals, or halftime wagers, etc. etc.). Sometimes the whole thing seems to succeed in spite of the powers-that-be.
All of the lines for opening-round games can be viewed at VegasInsider.com. Here are the adjusted future-book odds to win the tournament from the Las Vegas Hilton (note: there are 49 teams listed with 16 as part of the "field"):
UCLA 7-2
NORTH CAROLINA 9-2
KANSAS 5
MEMPHIS 8
GEORGETOWN 12
DUKE 20
TEXAS 18
TENNESSEE 20
LOUISVILLE 20
STANFORD 25
XAVIER 25
WISCONSIN 40
WASHINGTON ST 40
VANDERBILT 40
PITTSBURGH 40
U CONN 50
NOTRE DAME 50
MICHIGAN ST 50
DRAKE 100
CLEMSON 50
OKLAHOMA 100
USC 40
PURDUE 75
MARQUETTE 75
BUTLER 100
GONZAGA 100
MIAMI FL 100
WEST VIRGINIA 100
INDIANA 75
UNLV 200
BYU 200
MISSISSIPPI ST 100
ARKANSAS 100
KENT ST 200
OREGON 200
TEXAS A&M 200
SOUTH ALABAMA 200
DAVIDSON 200
ST MARY'S 100
ARIZONA 75
ST JOE'S 200
KANSAS ST 75
KENTUCKY 200
BAYLOR 200
GEORGE MASON 500
VILLANOVA 500
TEMPLE 500
SAN DIEGO 5000
GEORGIA 1000
FIELD 100
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