Updating conference title odds, Super Bowl futures and possible SB lines; betting trends
If you're looking for a recap of the divisional playoffs from a betting perspective, you can check out the ViewFromVegas piece I did on Sunday night for the Sports Eye Publications. A link to the page can be found on the Tuley in Other Media page at ViewFromVegas.
That story had the Patriots-Chargers line settling at Pats -15 on early Sunday night, which it had by deadline, but by Monday morning most books had dropped the line to 14 on the news that Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson were looking more likely to be ready to go by Sunday. The Packers-Giants line stayed at 7 at most books throughout Monday, though the Palms held the line at Packers -6.5 (though they increased the vigorish from -110 to -120) until later in the afternoon before moving to 7 like everyone else.
The totals on both games still hadn't settled by late Monday night with the Pats-Chargers total varying between 47.5 and 48.5, and the Packers-Giants total wavering between 41.5 and 42.5.
As stated in the above story, the Hilton made the Patriots the 1-3 favorite to win the Super Bowl from this point forward (beware that some books have a much steeper price as I saw 1-8 on the Strip Monday) with the Packers at 9-2, the Chargers 8-1 and the Giants 12-1. The Hilton also adjusted its Super Bowl line from AFC -11 that was posted after the Patriots advanced on Saturday night to -13.5 after the NFC's No. 1-seeded Cowboys lost on Sunday.
What hadn't been released on Sunday night was Las Vegas Sports Consultants' lines on the potential Super Bowl matchups. For instance, if the Patriots were to face the Packers, LVSC has the line as Patriots -13.5 (the same as what the Hilton has for its generic line, which makes sense since it's the most likely pairing). The Patriots would be -17 vs. the Giants. If the Chargers pull the upset of the Patriots, they would be favored by 3.5 over the Packers and 6.5 over the Giants.
Betting stats and trends
So far in the NFL playoffs, underdogs are 5-3 against the spread even though favorites have won five of the eight games straight up (the two games in which the point spread came into play with the favorite winning but not covering against the closing number were the two games involving the Jaguars as they won but did not cover at Pittsburgh and then covered but lost at New England). Home and away teams are split 4-4 ATS. Over/unders are also 4-4.
* Here are the ATS records from this season of the teams still alive. It's pretty easy to update these relevant trends because the two teams that are home in the conference title games (Patriots and Packers) both won at home last week while the two teams that are on the road (Chargers and Giants) both won on the road:
Patriots: 10-7 ATS overall (2-7 in last eight), 5-4 ATS at home (9-0 SU), 11-6 with the over, 5-4 at home
Chargers: 13-5 ATS, 5-4 on road, 11-7 with the over, 8-1 on the road
Packers: league-best 13-3-1 ATS, 7-1-1 at home, 10-5-2 with the over, 6-2-1 over at home
Giants: 12-6 ATS, 8-2 ATS on road (and 9 SU wins on road), 9-9 with the over/under, 8-2 with under on the road
That story had the Patriots-Chargers line settling at Pats -15 on early Sunday night, which it had by deadline, but by Monday morning most books had dropped the line to 14 on the news that Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson were looking more likely to be ready to go by Sunday. The Packers-Giants line stayed at 7 at most books throughout Monday, though the Palms held the line at Packers -6.5 (though they increased the vigorish from -110 to -120) until later in the afternoon before moving to 7 like everyone else.
The totals on both games still hadn't settled by late Monday night with the Pats-Chargers total varying between 47.5 and 48.5, and the Packers-Giants total wavering between 41.5 and 42.5.
As stated in the above story, the Hilton made the Patriots the 1-3 favorite to win the Super Bowl from this point forward (beware that some books have a much steeper price as I saw 1-8 on the Strip Monday) with the Packers at 9-2, the Chargers 8-1 and the Giants 12-1. The Hilton also adjusted its Super Bowl line from AFC -11 that was posted after the Patriots advanced on Saturday night to -13.5 after the NFC's No. 1-seeded Cowboys lost on Sunday.
What hadn't been released on Sunday night was Las Vegas Sports Consultants' lines on the potential Super Bowl matchups. For instance, if the Patriots were to face the Packers, LVSC has the line as Patriots -13.5 (the same as what the Hilton has for its generic line, which makes sense since it's the most likely pairing). The Patriots would be -17 vs. the Giants. If the Chargers pull the upset of the Patriots, they would be favored by 3.5 over the Packers and 6.5 over the Giants.
Betting stats and trends
So far in the NFL playoffs, underdogs are 5-3 against the spread even though favorites have won five of the eight games straight up (the two games in which the point spread came into play with the favorite winning but not covering against the closing number were the two games involving the Jaguars as they won but did not cover at Pittsburgh and then covered but lost at New England). Home and away teams are split 4-4 ATS. Over/unders are also 4-4.
* Here are the ATS records from this season of the teams still alive. It's pretty easy to update these relevant trends because the two teams that are home in the conference title games (Patriots and Packers) both won at home last week while the two teams that are on the road (Chargers and Giants) both won on the road:
Patriots: 10-7 ATS overall (2-7 in last eight), 5-4 ATS at home (9-0 SU), 11-6 with the over, 5-4 at home
Chargers: 13-5 ATS, 5-4 on road, 11-7 with the over, 8-1 on the road
Packers: league-best 13-3-1 ATS, 7-1-1 at home, 10-5-2 with the over, 6-2-1 over at home
Giants: 12-6 ATS, 8-2 ATS on road (and 9 SU wins on road), 9-9 with the over/under, 8-2 with under on the road
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