Opening wild-card lines; regular season recap
After the afternoon games concluded on Sunday, three of the four wild-card matchups were determined with the only question being whether the Chargers would host the Titans or the Browns, so sports books started putting up the lines shortly after 4:30 p.m. Vegas time.
REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS: The Las Vegas Hilton opened the Seahawks as a 5-point favorite (with it opening as high as 6 offshore), but the early betting drove it down quickly. After just half an hour, the line was at 4 at most books, and then it drifted down lower to 3.5. As of this writing late Sunday night/early Monday morning, slightly more than half the books in Vegas were at 3.5 as opposed to 4 so the guess here is that 3.5 will be the prevalent line as we move through the week. The over/under opened at 40 and hasn't budged.
JAGUARS AT STEELERS: Many books opened this at pick-em (as predicted by yours truly in a thread in the ViewFromVegas Forums). The Hilton opened it at Jaguars -1 despite the Steelers having home-field advantage. The Stratosphere opened it Steelers -1. By the end of the night, nearly every book in town had the Jags -1 except for the Stations, which was holding the line at pick-em. The total looks pretty solid at 38, though some books were at 37.5.
GIANTS AT BUCCANEERS: The Hilton opened the Bucs -3 while several books opted for -2.5. This line could bounce back and forth all week, depending on how individual bookmakers manage the key number of 3. As of late Sunday night/early Monday morning, most Vegas books were back to 3, though most had the Giants +3 at -120, with the Hilton going as far as making NY backers lay -130 to take the +3. The Harrah's/Caesars and MGM Mirage chains both were at -2.5 with a premium of -120 for those laying the shorter price with the Bucs. The total is between 39 and 40 as it hasn't settled yet.
TITANS AT CHARGERS: As stated above, this matchup wasn't finalized until after the Titans defeated the Colts on Sunday night. Most books kept it off the board due to Vince Young getting hurt in the second half and opting to wait for an update. The offshore book Pinnacle posted a line of Chargers -9, but not that they have a money line attached to that with the Titans +9 and -115 while the Chargers are -9 and +107. For those not familiar with Pinnacle pricing, that's the equivalent of the line being 8. Pinnacle discourages teaser players from taking a 6-point teaser to make a team lay less than a field goal, whereas a teaser player in this case would only get -3 instead of taking an 8-point line down to a much more advantageous -2. We'll see what other books posted on Monday morning or when Young's status is clarified. Pinnacle didn't post a total.
League-wide betting trends
* Favorites went 9-6 against the spread in Week 17 (the Bears-Saints game closed pick-em at the Hilton, so that's not included in the favorite/dog stats) and finished the regular season at 128-118-7 ATS.
* Home teams went 10-6 against the spread and finished up 127-121-7 with the one missing game being the Giants-Dolphins matchup in London.
* Home underdogs went 4-4 in Week 17 to fall short of getting back to .500 at 42-25-1 ATS. The Steelers are the only likely home dog this weekend or at any point in the playoffs.
* Double-digit underdogs went 1-1 ATS to finish at 21-19. If Young is out for the Titans, maybe that line will steam to double digits. Future rounds could definitely see double-digits spreads with the Patriots and the Cowboys.
* The AFC went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in Week 17 interconference games. I've discussed a lot this year about how the AFC hasn't dominated the NFC overall. You could win some bar bets by asking which conference won more games this year. The answer: it was split 32-32. Against the spread, the NFC actually held on for a 31-30-3 win. The next interconference game, of course, will be the Super Bowl. As of now, the Las Vegas Hilton has the AFC -11 with a total of 55.
* Despite inclement weather that we see in December, overs actually went 10-5-1 in Week 17 and finished the season at 137-116-3.
* The Packers held on to the top spot in the NFL ATS Standings with their 34-13 win over the Lions on Sunday to finish the year 12-3-1 against the spread. The Browns won and covered over the 49ers to finish just one-half game back at 12-4. The Jaguars and Cowboys were next at 11-5 with the Patriots and Giants at 10-6 as the only other teams above 60 percent. It's also interesting to note that after the Patriots went the first half of the season as 8-0 straight up and against the spread, that even though they went 8-0 on the scoreboard the second half of the season, they were only 2-6 ATS.
* The Ravens upset the Steelers 27-21 in Week 17, but it still didn't get them out of the cellar as they went 3-13 ATS and were still the worst spread team by two games. The Broncos upset the Vikings to improve to 5-11 along with the Rams and 49ers. The Raiders and Saints were 6-10 ATS as the only others to fail to cover at a 40-percent clip.
* In addition to having the third-best spread record, the Jaguars were also the best over team at 12-4. The Broncos pushed with the Vikings in their 22-19 victory as the closing total was 41, so they finished 11-4-1 with the over. The Patriots and Lions were next at 11-5 while the Packers were 9-5-2. The oddity of the year is that the Browns went over in their first 10 games, but then went under in their last six.
* No team was dominant or consistent with unders as the Panthers, Titans, Jets and 49ers were all 10-6 to top that category.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Packers (13-3) 12-3-1 9-5-2 Browns (10-6) 12-4 10-6 Jaguars (11-5) 11-5 12-4 Chargers (11-5) 11-5 10-6 Patriots (16-0) 10-6 11-5 Giants (10-6) 10-6 7-9 Seahawks (10-6) 9-6-1 7-9 Bills (7-9) 9-6-1 7-9 Cowboys (13-3) 9-7 10-6 Colts (13-3) 9-7 7-9 Buccaneers (9-7) 9-7 9-7 Cardinals (8-8) 9-7 10-6 Lions (7-9) 8-7-1 11-5 Redskins (9-7) 7-7-2 7-9 Vikings (8-8) 7-7-2 7-7-2 Steelers (10-6) 8-8 9-7Titans (10-6) 8-8 6-10 Texans (8-8) 8-8 9-7 Eagles (8-8) 8-8 7-9 Panthers (7-9) 8-8 6-10 Dolphins (1-15) 5-8-3 9-7 Chiefs (4-12) 7-8-1 8-8 Bears (7-9) 7-9 9-7 Falcons (4-12) 7-9 8-8 Bengals (7-9) 6-9-1 7-9 Jets (4-12) 6-9-1 6-10 Saints (7-9) 6-10 10-6 Raiders (4-12) 6-10 10-6 Broncos (7-9) 5-11 11-4-1 49ers (5-11) 5-11 6-10 Rams (3-13) 5-11 6-9-1 Ravens (5-11) 3-13 10-6 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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