If you thought Week 16 betting results were strange . . .
First of all, I'd like to wish everyone a happy holiday season to all my readers no matter what your beliefs may be. My website software tells me a lot of things about where people are from, how many pages they click on, how often they visit and what browsers they use, but it can't tell me who are Christians, Jews, atheists or other. And none of that matters in our world of sports betting as the most important color is green and we worship the almighty dollar (wow, I hope my Baptist parents never read this :^)
Week 16 in the NFL saw a lot of strange betting results. When we get to these final weeks of the season, it's always a guessing game as to which teams will show up and which will play out the string. The Browns were supposed to be motivated to keep control of their AFC wild-card destiny and playing a disappointing Bengals team, yet Cincy won 19-14 (I was glad as I had the Bengals). The Packers were trying to stay in contention for home field throughout the NFC playoffs and got blown out 35-7 by the Bears. The Colts were expected to start resting players against a more motivated Houston team, but won and covered in a 38-15 rout. The Buccaneers were trying to get the No. 3 seed vs. the 49ers but lost 21-19. And the Vikings, regarded as one of the hottest teams in the league and trying to clinch the last NFC wild-card slot, lost 32-21 to the Redskins.
But if you thought those results were strange, wait until you see what happened with the point spreads for Week 17. A lot of assumptions have also gone into these changes, and I'm sure many of those will be wrong by the time the games are played this weekend.
* When the Week 17 lines were posted last week at the Hilton, the Cowboys were -5 vs. the Redskins. That was because it appeared the Cowboys would need to win to wrap up home field in the NFC. But then the Packers lost to the Bears and the line was re-opened at 4:30 p.m. Sunday as Redskins -7. The assumption was that the Cowboys would rest their starters and the Redskins would be eliminated but probably still win. The early action came in on the Cowboys and the line was lowered to 6.5. Then, the Redskins went out and beat the Vikings that night to control their wild-card destiny and it has steamed the other way with the Skins favored by between 8 and 9 as of Wednesday morning.
* Last week, the Packers were favored by 13.5 over the Lions; again, because it was assumed the Pack would need the win. After their loss to the Bears, this line was adjusted to Packers -5.5 on Sunday afternoon and has since been bet down to 3.5 as the Packers are locked into the No. 2 seed.
* The Texans opened -2.5 vs. the Jaguars, who are the AFC's No. 5 seed, and all the money has come in on the Texans with them now favored by 7.
* The Saints-Bears line is the wackiest of all. The Saints were -3.5 road favorites last week. Then, after they lost to the Eagles and most people assumed they were eliminated, the Bears were installed as 2-point favorites on Sunday afternoon. Then, after the Redskins beat the Vikings and it became known that the Saints were still alive for the playoffs (if the Skins and Vikes both lose Sunday), the Saints were then back to being favored by 2.5.
* Before the Vikings lost Sunday night, the Broncos were 3-point favorites as it looked like Minnesota would be resting players. After their lose, the Vikes are now -3.5 at Denver.
* The Chargers were -4.5 vs. the Raiders but now knowing they just need to win Sunday to get the AFC's No. 3 seed (and avoid facing the Patriots until the AFC title game), that line is now up to 8.
League-wide betting trends
* Underdogs went 10-6 against the spread in Week 16 (strangely enough, favorites went 11-5 straight up, so that means there were 5 games in which the favorite won but did not cover). For the season, favorites still hold a slight 119-112-7 edge.
* Home teams split 8-8 against the spread and are now 117-115-7 on the season. It almost makes you wonder about all this fuss over home-field advantage in the playoffs.
* Home underdogs continued their resurgence by going 4-2 ATS and have a chance at 38-41-1 to actually get back to .500 as there are seven home dogs this weekend: Giants +14.5 vs. the Patriots, Dolphins +3 vs. the Bengals, Bears +2.5 vs. the Saints, Ravens +4 vs. the Steelers, Colts +6.5 vs. the Titans, Broncos +3.5 vs. the Vikings, and Raiders +8 vs. the Chargers.
* Double-digit underdogs went 3-2 ATS and are now slightly profitable, even with the 10-percent vig on losing bets, at 20-18-1. This week's big dogs are the Giants +14.5 vs. the Patriots and the 49ers +10 at the Browns.
* I really appreciate all the people who have written to say how happy they are for me pointing out that the NFC is actually posting a winning point-spread record over the AFC despite everyone seeming to say how the AFC is so dominant. I wish I had taken my words to heart more often. The NFC won 3 of the 4 interconference games played in Week 16 to take a 31-29 lead over and went 2-2 ATS to lead 30-27-3 against the spread. The final four NFC plays would be Giants +14.5 vs. the Patriots, Eagles -7.5 vs. the Bills, 49ers +10 vs. the Browns, and Vikings -3.5 vs. the Broncos.
* Despite inclement weather that we see in December, overs actually went 10-6 in Week 16, partly attributable to totals being lower across the board because of the winter storms. For the year, overs have opened up a 127-111-2 lead.
Week 16 in the NFL saw a lot of strange betting results. When we get to these final weeks of the season, it's always a guessing game as to which teams will show up and which will play out the string. The Browns were supposed to be motivated to keep control of their AFC wild-card destiny and playing a disappointing Bengals team, yet Cincy won 19-14 (I was glad as I had the Bengals). The Packers were trying to stay in contention for home field throughout the NFC playoffs and got blown out 35-7 by the Bears. The Colts were expected to start resting players against a more motivated Houston team, but won and covered in a 38-15 rout. The Buccaneers were trying to get the No. 3 seed vs. the 49ers but lost 21-19. And the Vikings, regarded as one of the hottest teams in the league and trying to clinch the last NFC wild-card slot, lost 32-21 to the Redskins.
But if you thought those results were strange, wait until you see what happened with the point spreads for Week 17. A lot of assumptions have also gone into these changes, and I'm sure many of those will be wrong by the time the games are played this weekend.
* When the Week 17 lines were posted last week at the Hilton, the Cowboys were -5 vs. the Redskins. That was because it appeared the Cowboys would need to win to wrap up home field in the NFC. But then the Packers lost to the Bears and the line was re-opened at 4:30 p.m. Sunday as Redskins -7. The assumption was that the Cowboys would rest their starters and the Redskins would be eliminated but probably still win. The early action came in on the Cowboys and the line was lowered to 6.5. Then, the Redskins went out and beat the Vikings that night to control their wild-card destiny and it has steamed the other way with the Skins favored by between 8 and 9 as of Wednesday morning.
* Last week, the Packers were favored by 13.5 over the Lions; again, because it was assumed the Pack would need the win. After their loss to the Bears, this line was adjusted to Packers -5.5 on Sunday afternoon and has since been bet down to 3.5 as the Packers are locked into the No. 2 seed.
* The Texans opened -2.5 vs. the Jaguars, who are the AFC's No. 5 seed, and all the money has come in on the Texans with them now favored by 7.
* The Saints-Bears line is the wackiest of all. The Saints were -3.5 road favorites last week. Then, after they lost to the Eagles and most people assumed they were eliminated, the Bears were installed as 2-point favorites on Sunday afternoon. Then, after the Redskins beat the Vikings and it became known that the Saints were still alive for the playoffs (if the Skins and Vikes both lose Sunday), the Saints were then back to being favored by 2.5.
* Before the Vikings lost Sunday night, the Broncos were 3-point favorites as it looked like Minnesota would be resting players. After their lose, the Vikes are now -3.5 at Denver.
* The Chargers were -4.5 vs. the Raiders but now knowing they just need to win Sunday to get the AFC's No. 3 seed (and avoid facing the Patriots until the AFC title game), that line is now up to 8.
League-wide betting trends
* Underdogs went 10-6 against the spread in Week 16 (strangely enough, favorites went 11-5 straight up, so that means there were 5 games in which the favorite won but did not cover). For the season, favorites still hold a slight 119-112-7 edge.
* Home teams split 8-8 against the spread and are now 117-115-7 on the season. It almost makes you wonder about all this fuss over home-field advantage in the playoffs.
* Home underdogs continued their resurgence by going 4-2 ATS and have a chance at 38-41-1 to actually get back to .500 as there are seven home dogs this weekend: Giants +14.5 vs. the Patriots, Dolphins +3 vs. the Bengals, Bears +2.5 vs. the Saints, Ravens +4 vs. the Steelers, Colts +6.5 vs. the Titans, Broncos +3.5 vs. the Vikings, and Raiders +8 vs. the Chargers.
* Double-digit underdogs went 3-2 ATS and are now slightly profitable, even with the 10-percent vig on losing bets, at 20-18-1. This week's big dogs are the Giants +14.5 vs. the Patriots and the 49ers +10 at the Browns.
* I really appreciate all the people who have written to say how happy they are for me pointing out that the NFC is actually posting a winning point-spread record over the AFC despite everyone seeming to say how the AFC is so dominant. I wish I had taken my words to heart more often. The NFC won 3 of the 4 interconference games played in Week 16 to take a 31-29 lead over and went 2-2 ATS to lead 30-27-3 against the spread. The final four NFC plays would be Giants +14.5 vs. the Patriots, Eagles -7.5 vs. the Bills, 49ers +10 vs. the Browns, and Vikings -3.5 vs. the Broncos.
* Despite inclement weather that we see in December, overs actually went 10-6 in Week 16, partly attributable to totals being lower across the board because of the winter storms. For the year, overs have opened up a 127-111-2 lead.
NFL ATS Standings
* The teams at the top of the NFL ATS Standings had a rough week as the Packers, Browns and Buccaneers lost outright while the Patriots and Cowboys won but did not over. Heading into Week 17, the Packers maintain the top spread record at 11-3-1 but the Browns and surging Jaguars are just a half game back at 11-4, with the Chargers (once regarded as one of the underachieving teams) and the Patriots at 10-5 and the Seahawks at 9-5-1.
* The bottom-feeders have been more consistent with the Ravens losing again and falling to 2-13 and the Broncos at 4-11. The 49ers (despite their win) and Rams are 5-10 with the Bengals at 5-9-1.
* With the Broncos going under in their Monday night game vs. the Chargers, they are now tied with the Jaguars at 11-4 as the top over team. The Patriots, Browns, Cowboys and Lions are next at 10-5 with the Packers (8-5-2) the only other team hitting at better than a 60-percent clip.
* The Panthers have the top under record at 10-5 with the Rams at 9-5-1. No other team is better than 60 percent with the under.
* The teams at the top of the NFL ATS Standings had a rough week as the Packers, Browns and Buccaneers lost outright while the Patriots and Cowboys won but did not over. Heading into Week 17, the Packers maintain the top spread record at 11-3-1 but the Browns and surging Jaguars are just a half game back at 11-4, with the Chargers (once regarded as one of the underachieving teams) and the Patriots at 10-5 and the Seahawks at 9-5-1.
* The bottom-feeders have been more consistent with the Ravens losing again and falling to 2-13 and the Broncos at 4-11. The 49ers (despite their win) and Rams are 5-10 with the Bengals at 5-9-1.
* With the Broncos going under in their Monday night game vs. the Chargers, they are now tied with the Jaguars at 11-4 as the top over team. The Patriots, Browns, Cowboys and Lions are next at 10-5 with the Packers (8-5-2) the only other team hitting at better than a 60-percent clip.
* The Panthers have the top under record at 10-5 with the Rams at 9-5-1. No other team is better than 60 percent with the under.
|
NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Packers (12-3) 11-3-1 8-5-2 Jaguars (11-4) 11-4 11-4 Browns (9-6) 11-4 10-5 Patriots (15-0) 10-5 10-5 Chargers (10-5) 10-5 9-6 Seahawks (10-5) 9-5-1 6-9 Cowboys (13-2) 9-6 10-5 Colts (13-2) 9-6 7-8 Giants (10-5) 9-6 6-9 Buccaneers (9-6) 9-6 8-7 Lions (7-8) 8-6-1 10-5 Bills (7-8) 8-6-1 7-8 Vikings (8-7) 7-6-2 7-7-1 Steelers (10-5) 8-7 8-7Cardinals (7-8) 8-7 9-6 Eagles (7-8) 8-7 7-8 Redskins (8-7) 6-7-2 7-8 Titans (9-6) 7-8 6-9 Texans (7-8) 7-8 8-7 Panthers (6-9) 7-8 5-10 Dolphins (1-14) 5-7-3 8-7 Chiefs (4-11) 6-8-1 8-7 Jets (3-12) 6-8-1 6-9 Saints (7-8) 6-9 9-6 Bears (6-9) 6-9 8-7 Raiders (4-11) 6-9 9-6 Falcons (3-12) 6-9 7-8 Bengals (6-9) 5-9-1 6-9 49ers (5-10) 5-10 6-9 Rams (3-12) 5-10 5-9-1 Broncos (6-9) 4-11 11-4 Ravens (4-11) 2-13 9-6 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
Comments