Underdogs bite back in Week 15
The bookend games were especially profitable for underdog bettors as the Texans started off the weekend early with a 31-13 win over the Broncos as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday night and then the 49ers knocked off the Bengals 20-13 as 9-point dogs on Saturday night. After going 6-6 ATS in Sunday's day games, the Redskins beat the Giants 22-10 as 6-point underdogs on Sunday night and then the Bears covered the 10.5-point spread in a 20-13 loss to the Vikings on Monday night.
Seven dogs won their games outright. In addition to the Texans, 49ers and Redskins, the others were the Dolphins over the Ravens, Jaguars over Steelers, Panthers over Seahawks, and Eagles over Cowboys.
Favorites and underdogs were split at 76-76-7 after Week 11, but even with this down week, favorites are still ahead 113-102-7, which is barely profitable after factoring in the 10 percent vig on losing bets, on the season.
* Home-field advantage has been even more negligible. Entering last weekend, home and away stats were tied 100-100-7, so now home teams are barely ahead 109-107-7.
* Home underdogs have really underperformed, but they went 5-2 ATS in Week 15 (again, with the Texans, 49ers, Dolphins and Panthers winning outright) and are now at 34-39-1 and might get back to .500 at season's end. This week's home dogs are the Rams +8 vs. the Steelers on Thursday night, Panthers +10.5 vs. the Cowboys on Saturday night, Bengals +3 vs. the Browns (better grab it now if you like it as the line looks like it's dropping), Bears +9 vs. the Packers, Bills +3 vs. the Giants, and the 49ers +7 vs. the Buccaneers.
* Double-digit dogs have also had a rough year but went 4-1 last week, with the Eagles getting the sole outright upset, to get back over .500 at 17-16 ATS. This week's big dogs are the Panthers +10.5 vs. the Cowboys, Dolphins +21.5 vs. the Patriots, Raiders +13 vs. the Jaguars, Falcons +10 vs. the Cardinals, and the Ravens +10 vs. the Seahawks.
* On TV, on the radio and in newspapers, I continue to hear how the AFC is so much better than the NFC, but I still haven't seen or anyone besides yours truly mention that the interleague record is 28-28 and that the NFC has a 28-25-3 lead against the spread. Last week, the games were split again with the NFC's 49ers upsetting the AFC's Bengals and then the AFC's Chargers blowing out the NFC's Lions. This week's NFC plays would be the Rams +8 vs. the Steelers, the Lions -4.5 vs. the Chiefs, the Giants -3 vs. the Bills, and the Seahawks -10 vs. the Ravens.
* Still, I'll agree that the AFC's elite teams (Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers) are much stronger than their NFC counterparts (Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Seahawks), so it's not surprising that the Super Bowl line has started creeping back up. It was as high as 17 when the Patriots were steamrolling everyone, dipped to -10 at the Las Vegas Hilton but now has climbed back to -13 (partly due to the Cowboys' loss to the Eagles on Sunday). The total is available around town between 56 and 57.
NFL ATS Standings
With the Patriots and Cowboys failing to cover, the Packers continue their reign atop the NFL ATS Standings at 11-2-1 after their 33-14 victory at St Louis (the full chart is at the bottom of this column). The Browns are still right behind at 11-3 after their 8-0 win over the Bills in the snow. The Patriots and Jaguars are next at 10-4. All four might have a tough time covering this week as oddsmakers continue to adjust on them. The Packers and Browns are favored on the road while the Patriots and Jaguars are laying the biggest points of the week.
* On the other end of the ledger, the Ravens' 22-16 loss to the previously winless Dolphins pretty much guaranteed their spot in the ATS Standings cellar as they are now 2-12 on the season and two games behind (ahead?) of the 49ers and Broncos at 4-10. The Bengals are another big underachiever at 4-9-1.
* Oddmakers have done a much better job evening out the records in totals wagering. The Broncos went under in their 31-14 loss to the Texans (the game had a total of 47.5) but still have the best over record at 11-3 and a one-game lead over the Patriots, Cowboys, Jaguars and Browns at 10-4. All but the Jags went under in Week 15.
* If you had told me before the season that the Rams — which looked like they would have a very explosive offense and a sieve-like defense — would have the best under record, I would have said you were crazy. But no team is hitting at a 70-percent clip with the under and here the Rams are at 9-4-1 with a half-game lead over the Giants, Panthers and 49ers at 9-5.
Westbrook's "genius" flop at the 1-yard line
A lot has been made about how brilliant it was of the Eagles' Brian Westbrook to stop short of the end zone with a 10-6 lead over the Cowboys so that his team could run out the clock without giving the ball back to Dallas (though the announcers didn't get it on the Fox broadcast). But the View From Vegas (and elsewhere that sharp observers of the game reside) is that it wasn't anything special. It's a move that should be employed a lot more, and if you've ever visited some of the sports betting forums online on a weekend, you would read all sorts of scenarios where coaches and players put their team's chances for victory in jeopardy with all sort of decisions like that or with 2-point conversions or the use of timeouts and challenges or instances where a team is down two scores and should go for the field goal first if they're running out of time (and contrary to popular belief, it's not just people crying sour grapes because they lost a bet).
Just last week, I was yelling at the TV screen that the Browns' Jamal Lewis after breaking through the line for a potential game-clinching first down (in almost an identical situation with the Browns leading the Jets 17-15 under 2 minutes to play) should go to the ground so his team could run out the clock (and, no, I didn't have a bet on the game either way). Instead, he scored to put the Browns up 24-15 and the Jets marched down to kick a field goal to pull within 24-18 and were an onside kick away from having a chance to pull out the victory. The Browns held on, but the only chance the Jets had to get back in the game was for Lewis to score.
My prediction is that with Westbrook's move being given so much attention that we will see more teams do the smarter thing. That would be refreshing to see. I just hope it doesn't lose me any bets (though, as an underdog bettor, it is more likely to help me).
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Packers (12-2) 11-2-1 7-5-2 Browns (9-5) 11-3 10-4 Patriots (14-0) 10-4 10-4 Jaguars (10-4) 10-4 10-4 Cowboys (12-2) 9-5 10-4 Buccaneers (9-5) 9-5 7-7 Chargers (9-5) 9-5 9-5 Seahawks (9-5) 8-5-1 6-8 Bills (7-7) 8-5-1 6-8 Vikings (8-6) 7-5-2 6-7-1 Colts (12-2) 8-6 6-8 Giants (9-5) 8-6 5-9 Cardinals (6-8) 8-6 8-6 Lions (6-8) 7-6-1 9-5 Steelers (9-5) 7-7 7-7 Titans (8-6) 7-7 6-8 Eagles (6-8) 7-7 6-8 Texans (7-7) 7-7 7-7 Redskins (7-7) 5-7-2 6-8 Saints (7-7) 6-8 8-6 Panthers (6-8) 6-8 5-9 Raiders (4-10) 6-8 8-6 Dolphins (1-13) 4-7-3 8-6 Chiefs (4-10) 5-8-1 7-7 Jets (3-11) 5-8-1 6-8 Bears (5-9) 5-9 7-7 Falcons (3-11) 5-9 6-8 Rams (3-11) 5-9 4-9-1 Bengals (5-9) 4-9-1 6-8 Broncos (6-8) 4-10 11-3 49ers (4-10) 4-10 5-9 Ravens (4-10) 2-12 9-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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