Pats, Jets, Spygate and point-spread history
If you like what you read here, please check out the home page at ViewFromVegas.com for more free articles and information from the oddsmakers and handicappers in Las Vegas.
When the Patriots had their marquee games this year against the Chargers, Cowboys and Colts, there was a lot of discussion about the point spreads, but the line everyone has been waiting for is this week's game against the Jets. This is a rematch of the Week 1 game in which the Pats won 38-14 in New York but the whole Spygate scandal erupted with Bill Belichick getting fined and the Pats organization getting its hand slapped for taping coaching signals on the sidelines.
A lot of people have speculated that with the Patriots on a quest for an undefeated season (and running up scores along the way) and the Jets having a poor season that this line would break the record for the biggest point spread in NFL history and might even approach Pats -30 if the public assumed Belichick would show no mercy in exacting some revenge. For the longest time, it's been circulated that the biggest spread in NFL history was the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Steelers -24 vs. the expansion (and winless) Buccaneers in 1976. Now, the Gold Sheet has uncovered a 28-point spread when the Baltimore Colts faced the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966.
It now looks like the Pats-Jets line won't exceed either of those. The line did open at Pats -25 at the Las Vegas Hilton on Sunday afternoon and the Wynn Las Vegas on Monday morning, but most Vegas sports books went with -24. The Hilton and Wynn number came down and all the books in town had it at 24 by Monday afternoon except for the Harrah's/Caesars properties, which were dealing 24.5. But as of Tuesday morning, the line has been dropping more with the Hilton, Wynn, Golden Nugget and Palms all moving to 23.5 while the MGM Mirage books, Harrah's, Stations and Stratosphere still holding the line at 24.
A number of things have slowed down the rise of this line in recent weeks, mostly with the Patriots not covering vs. the Eagles (when they were favored by 24.5) and Ravens (when they were favored by 20.5) in Weeks 12 and 13 on national TV. In addition, the Jets have been a little more competitive in their win over the Dolphins and this past Sunday's loss to the Browns.
Money will also probably continue to come in on the underdog if/when the mainstream media picks up on this list of the results from past huge NFL point spreads:
Colts -28 vs. Falcons, 1966 (Colts win 19-7 but do not cover)
That's just a lot of points for a team — even a widely regarded "great" team like the Patriots — to cover.
Of course, even if the spread falls short of any records this week, the conversation will renew next week when the Patriots face the Dolphins.
NFL ATS Standings
As much as a lot of focus this season has been on the Patriots and how the oddsmakers have often had a hard time finding spreads big enough, the Packers have actually been more successful against the spread and remain atop the NFL ATS Standings (the chart is at the bottom of this column). The Packers are 10-2-1 against the spread after their 38-7 rout of the Raiders as a 10.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 10-3 ATS. However, it should be pointed out that the Patriots record is more impressive considering they've been favored in every game this season, including eight times as double-digit favorites, while the Packers were underdogs at the Chiefs and Broncos in Weeks 8 and 9 and weren't asked to cover a double-digit spread until Week 11 vs. the Panthers.
Tied with the Pats for second place in the NFL ATS Standings are the Browns at 10-3, with the Cowboys and Jaguars a game further back at 9-4 and the Seahawks and Bills at 8-4-1.
* On the other end of the spectrum, the Ravens got blown out by the Colts 44-20 on Sunday night and dropped to a league-worst 2-11 ATS as they continue to underachieve. The 49ers are next at 3-10, with the Bears and Broncos at 4-9 and the Jets and Bengals at 4-8-1.
* In totals wagering, it would probably surprise a lot of people that the Broncos lead the league with a record of 11-2 with the over. The teams behind them aren't shocking at all as the Patriots, Cowboys and Browns are all 10-3 with the over. It is interesting, though, that the Browns were 10-0 with the over just three weeks ago, but oddsmakers have continually adjusted and they've now gone under inflated totals of 52 in a 27-17 win over the Texans in Week 12, a total of 52 in a 27-21 loss to the Cardinals in Week 13, and a total of 47.5 in the 24-18 win over the Jets in Week 14.
* The top under teams have really been cut down to size by oddsmakers as the Falcons, who were once 8-1 with the under, have gone over reduced totals in four straight games and are in a five-way tie for the best under record at 8-5 (barely over 60 percent).
When the Patriots had their marquee games this year against the Chargers, Cowboys and Colts, there was a lot of discussion about the point spreads, but the line everyone has been waiting for is this week's game against the Jets. This is a rematch of the Week 1 game in which the Pats won 38-14 in New York but the whole Spygate scandal erupted with Bill Belichick getting fined and the Pats organization getting its hand slapped for taping coaching signals on the sidelines.
A lot of people have speculated that with the Patriots on a quest for an undefeated season (and running up scores along the way) and the Jets having a poor season that this line would break the record for the biggest point spread in NFL history and might even approach Pats -30 if the public assumed Belichick would show no mercy in exacting some revenge. For the longest time, it's been circulated that the biggest spread in NFL history was the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Steelers -24 vs. the expansion (and winless) Buccaneers in 1976. Now, the Gold Sheet has uncovered a 28-point spread when the Baltimore Colts faced the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966.
It now looks like the Pats-Jets line won't exceed either of those. The line did open at Pats -25 at the Las Vegas Hilton on Sunday afternoon and the Wynn Las Vegas on Monday morning, but most Vegas sports books went with -24. The Hilton and Wynn number came down and all the books in town had it at 24 by Monday afternoon except for the Harrah's/Caesars properties, which were dealing 24.5. But as of Tuesday morning, the line has been dropping more with the Hilton, Wynn, Golden Nugget and Palms all moving to 23.5 while the MGM Mirage books, Harrah's, Stations and Stratosphere still holding the line at 24.
A number of things have slowed down the rise of this line in recent weeks, mostly with the Patriots not covering vs. the Eagles (when they were favored by 24.5) and Ravens (when they were favored by 20.5) in Weeks 12 and 13 on national TV. In addition, the Jets have been a little more competitive in their win over the Dolphins and this past Sunday's loss to the Browns.
Money will also probably continue to come in on the underdog if/when the mainstream media picks up on this list of the results from past huge NFL point spreads:
Colts -28 vs. Falcons, 1966 (Colts win 19-7 but do not cover)
Patriots -24.5 vs. Eagles, 2007 (Patriots win 31-28 but do not cover)
Steelers -24 vs. expansion Buccaneers, 1976 (Steelers win and cover 42-0)
49ers -23 vs. Bengals, 1993 (49ers win 21-8 but do not cover)
49ers -23 vs. Falcons, 1987 (49ers win 25-17 but do not cover)
That's just a lot of points for a team — even a widely regarded "great" team like the Patriots — to cover.
Of course, even if the spread falls short of any records this week, the conversation will renew next week when the Patriots face the Dolphins.
NFL ATS Standings
As much as a lot of focus this season has been on the Patriots and how the oddsmakers have often had a hard time finding spreads big enough, the Packers have actually been more successful against the spread and remain atop the NFL ATS Standings (the chart is at the bottom of this column). The Packers are 10-2-1 against the spread after their 38-7 rout of the Raiders as a 10.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 10-3 ATS. However, it should be pointed out that the Patriots record is more impressive considering they've been favored in every game this season, including eight times as double-digit favorites, while the Packers were underdogs at the Chiefs and Broncos in Weeks 8 and 9 and weren't asked to cover a double-digit spread until Week 11 vs. the Panthers.
Tied with the Pats for second place in the NFL ATS Standings are the Browns at 10-3, with the Cowboys and Jaguars a game further back at 9-4 and the Seahawks and Bills at 8-4-1.
* On the other end of the spectrum, the Ravens got blown out by the Colts 44-20 on Sunday night and dropped to a league-worst 2-11 ATS as they continue to underachieve. The 49ers are next at 3-10, with the Bears and Broncos at 4-9 and the Jets and Bengals at 4-8-1.
* In totals wagering, it would probably surprise a lot of people that the Broncos lead the league with a record of 11-2 with the over. The teams behind them aren't shocking at all as the Patriots, Cowboys and Browns are all 10-3 with the over. It is interesting, though, that the Browns were 10-0 with the over just three weeks ago, but oddsmakers have continually adjusted and they've now gone under inflated totals of 52 in a 27-17 win over the Texans in Week 12, a total of 52 in a 27-21 loss to the Cardinals in Week 13, and a total of 47.5 in the 24-18 win over the Jets in Week 14.
* The top under teams have really been cut down to size by oddsmakers as the Falcons, who were once 8-1 with the under, have gone over reduced totals in four straight games and are in a five-way tie for the best under record at 8-5 (barely over 60 percent).
League-wide betting trends
If it weren't for the Patriots-Jets game, this would have been my lead item this week as favorites went 12-4 against the spread in the NFL over the weekend as the sports books took a beating from the public. The biggest upsets all weekend, and in fact the only dogs to win outright, were the Giants and Texans, who were just getting a paltry 3 points. This was the fourth straight week that favorites have dominated and they are now 95-88-7 ATS after underdogs were hitting at a nearly 60-percent clip through the first five weeks of the season).
* Home teams went 9-7 both SU and ATS. There is a slight home-field advantage in the NFL this year as home teams are 115-92 straight up (the Giants-Dolphins game in London is not included), but the oddsmakers have negated it as home teams are exactly .500 at 100-100-7.
* Home underdogs continued to struggle as they went 2-4 ATS in Week 14 and are only 29-37-1 on the season. This week's home dogs are the 49ers +8 vs. Bengals on Saturday night, the Dolphins +3.5 vs. the Ravens, the Rams +10 vs. the Packers, the Panthers +7 vs. the Seahawks, and the Raiders +10.5 vs. the Colts.
* Double-digit underdogs, another subset that usually shows a profit but has underperformed this year, went 2-3 ATS last week and are 13-15 on the season. They have a chance to rebound this week as there are seven big dogs: Falcons +12 vs. the Buccaneers, Rams +10 vs. the Packers, Jets +23.5 vs. the Patriots, Raiders +10.5 vs. the Colts, Lions +10 vs. the Chargers, Eagles +10 vs. the Cowboys (my personal favorite early in the week), and the Bears +10 vs. the Vikings on Monday night.
* After the Patriots' close calls vs. the Eagles and Ravens, the Super Bowl line had dropped as low as AFC -10, but now with the Patriots reasserting themselves last week over the Steelers and the Cowboys barely getting past the Lions, the spread is back up to AFC -12 at the Hilton. Conventional wisdom still has the AFC superior to the NFC, yet I think I'm the only media member that's been pointing out that interconference games have been split 27-27 this year, and the NFC is actually ahead 27-24-3 ATS. This week's NFC plays would be the 49ers +8 vs. the Bengals and the Lions +10 vs. the Chargers (my preference amongst these two choices).
If it weren't for the Patriots-Jets game, this would have been my lead item this week as favorites went 12-4 against the spread in the NFL over the weekend as the sports books took a beating from the public. The biggest upsets all weekend, and in fact the only dogs to win outright, were the Giants and Texans, who were just getting a paltry 3 points. This was the fourth straight week that favorites have dominated and they are now 95-88-7 ATS after underdogs were hitting at a nearly 60-percent clip through the first five weeks of the season).
* Home teams went 9-7 both SU and ATS. There is a slight home-field advantage in the NFL this year as home teams are 115-92 straight up (the Giants-Dolphins game in London is not included), but the oddsmakers have negated it as home teams are exactly .500 at 100-100-7.
* Home underdogs continued to struggle as they went 2-4 ATS in Week 14 and are only 29-37-1 on the season. This week's home dogs are the 49ers +8 vs. Bengals on Saturday night, the Dolphins +3.5 vs. the Ravens, the Rams +10 vs. the Packers, the Panthers +7 vs. the Seahawks, and the Raiders +10.5 vs. the Colts.
* Double-digit underdogs, another subset that usually shows a profit but has underperformed this year, went 2-3 ATS last week and are 13-15 on the season. They have a chance to rebound this week as there are seven big dogs: Falcons +12 vs. the Buccaneers, Rams +10 vs. the Packers, Jets +23.5 vs. the Patriots, Raiders +10.5 vs. the Colts, Lions +10 vs. the Chargers, Eagles +10 vs. the Cowboys (my personal favorite early in the week), and the Bears +10 vs. the Vikings on Monday night.
* After the Patriots' close calls vs. the Eagles and Ravens, the Super Bowl line had dropped as low as AFC -10, but now with the Patriots reasserting themselves last week over the Steelers and the Cowboys barely getting past the Lions, the spread is back up to AFC -12 at the Hilton. Conventional wisdom still has the AFC superior to the NFC, yet I think I'm the only media member that's been pointing out that interconference games have been split 27-27 this year, and the NFC is actually ahead 27-24-3 ATS. This week's NFC plays would be the 49ers +8 vs. the Bengals and the Lions +10 vs. the Chargers (my preference amongst these two choices).
|
NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Packers (11-2) 10-2-1 7-5-1 Patriots (13-0) 10-3 10-3 Browns (8-5) 10-3 10-3 Cowboys (12-1) 9-4 10-3 Jaguars (9-4) 9-4 9-4 Seahawks (9-4) 8-4-1 6-7 Bills (7-6) 8-4-1 6-7 Buccaneers (8-5) 8-5 6-7Vikings (7-6) 7-4-2 6-6-1 Colts (11-2) 8-5 6-7 Giants (9-4) 8-5 5-8 Chargers (8-5) 8-5 8-5 Cardinals (6-7) 8-5 8-5 Lions (7-6) 7-5-1 8-5 Steelers (8-5) 7-6 6-7 Titans (7-6) 6-7 5-8 Eagles (5-8) 6-7 6-7 Texans (6-7) 6-7 7-6 Chiefs (4-9) 5-7-1 6-7 Redskins (6-7) 4-7-2 6-7 Saints (6-7) 5-8 7-6 Panthers (5-8) 5-8 5-8 Raiders (4-9) 5-8 8-5 Falcons (3-10) 5-8 5-8 Rams (3-10) 5-8 4-9 Dolphins (0-13) 3-7-3 7-6 Bengals (5-8) 4-8-1 6-7 Jets (3-10) 4-8-1 6-7 Broncos (6-7) 4-9 11-2 Bears (5-8) 4-9 7-6 49ers (3-10) 3-10 5-8 Ravens (4-9) 2-11 8-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
your article was great reading and very informative. I printed it for future ref. Neal
Reply to this