Pats stay 'perfect' -- but fail to cover again
Monday night's game between the Patriots and Ravens was much closer than most people anticipated (though I had the Ravens +20.5 as one of my top five of the week and the line did get bet down to 17.5 at one point Monday before closing at 19 at most Vegas sports books). The Ravens showed up with an inspired performance as they played their best game of the year, but the Patriots came through in the end for a 27-24 victory to keep their quest alive for a perfect season.
However, it was the third time in the last four games that the Patriots have failed to cover the spread. With the Packers having lost last Thursday, the Pats were tied with them atop the NFL ATS Standings (the full chart is at the bottom of this column) at 9-2 with the Pack having an additional push, but with the Pats' non-cover on Monday night, the Packers remain in the top spot. The Cowboys move into a tie for second place with the Patriots and Browns (who barely lost at Arizona) at 9-3. The Jaguars, Buccaneers and Cardinals all covered Sunday to improve to 8-4.
Entering the week, the Ravens has the league's worst spread record at 1-10, but even Monday night's cover didn't get them out of the cellar as they are 2-10 while the 49ers and Broncos (both of whom lost Sunday) are at 3-9. The Bears, Saints and Rams are 4-8.
The disputed touchdown at the end of the Browns-Cardinals game, when Braylon Edwards caught the potential winning touchdown but landed out of bounds and the referees ruled he was not forced out by the defensive backs despite there being plenty of contact, not only cost the Browns a game in the official NFL standings as well as the NFL ATS Standings but it kept the game from going over the total of 52 as the Cards won 27-21. The Browns now drop into a tie with the Patriots and Broncos at 10-2 with the over. The Cowboys are 9-3 with the over and the Jaguars are 8-4.
That Browns' example shows how hard it is for teams to keep going over or under the total (as well as covering spreads) as the oddsmakers continue to adjust during the course of a season and put up numbers to stop trends that the public is capitalizing on. That can also be seen in the best under records as no team is hitting at a 70-percent clip as the Titans, Panthers, Falcons and Rams have the best under records at 8-4.
However, one bookmaker trick has backfired on them. Starting last week, when the Patriots were favored by 23 vs. the Eagles, a lot of sports books decided not to put up a total on the game because the Pats had been killing them with favorite/over parlays all season. Sure enough, the Pats didn't cover and the books cost themselves money. Then, again this week, some books also kept the total off the board in the Pats-Ravens game. The books who did post a total of 46 or 46.5 probably lost some money on the over when the Pats scored the final TD, but I'm sure they cleaned up on the lost favorite/over parlays as I'm sure the next most popular play would have been Ravens/under, which also lost. I can't imagine too many people were betting Ravens/over even if, like me, they thought the Ravens had a chance to pull the upset.
It's my belief that if you're in the business of booking bets that you've got all the odds on your side and should take action on everything you can. It just seems to me that when I hear of books refusing bets or limiting action, more often than not they end up costing themselves money. Earlier this year this was a rumor of an off-Strip sports book turning down a million-dollar wager. I never confirmed what they took on the game, but the game lost and the book cost itself money. Granted, I'm sure there's plenty of times that books save their ass with such moves (and those times are less likely to be circulated on the rumor mill as those stories aren't as juicy), but if you're in the business of taking bets, take the bets. Why would books limit the amount they can win?
However, it was the third time in the last four games that the Patriots have failed to cover the spread. With the Packers having lost last Thursday, the Pats were tied with them atop the NFL ATS Standings (the full chart is at the bottom of this column) at 9-2 with the Pack having an additional push, but with the Pats' non-cover on Monday night, the Packers remain in the top spot. The Cowboys move into a tie for second place with the Patriots and Browns (who barely lost at Arizona) at 9-3. The Jaguars, Buccaneers and Cardinals all covered Sunday to improve to 8-4.
Entering the week, the Ravens has the league's worst spread record at 1-10, but even Monday night's cover didn't get them out of the cellar as they are 2-10 while the 49ers and Broncos (both of whom lost Sunday) are at 3-9. The Bears, Saints and Rams are 4-8.
The disputed touchdown at the end of the Browns-Cardinals game, when Braylon Edwards caught the potential winning touchdown but landed out of bounds and the referees ruled he was not forced out by the defensive backs despite there being plenty of contact, not only cost the Browns a game in the official NFL standings as well as the NFL ATS Standings but it kept the game from going over the total of 52 as the Cards won 27-21. The Browns now drop into a tie with the Patriots and Broncos at 10-2 with the over. The Cowboys are 9-3 with the over and the Jaguars are 8-4.
That Browns' example shows how hard it is for teams to keep going over or under the total (as well as covering spreads) as the oddsmakers continue to adjust during the course of a season and put up numbers to stop trends that the public is capitalizing on. That can also be seen in the best under records as no team is hitting at a 70-percent clip as the Titans, Panthers, Falcons and Rams have the best under records at 8-4.
However, one bookmaker trick has backfired on them. Starting last week, when the Patriots were favored by 23 vs. the Eagles, a lot of sports books decided not to put up a total on the game because the Pats had been killing them with favorite/over parlays all season. Sure enough, the Pats didn't cover and the books cost themselves money. Then, again this week, some books also kept the total off the board in the Pats-Ravens game. The books who did post a total of 46 or 46.5 probably lost some money on the over when the Pats scored the final TD, but I'm sure they cleaned up on the lost favorite/over parlays as I'm sure the next most popular play would have been Ravens/under, which also lost. I can't imagine too many people were betting Ravens/over even if, like me, they thought the Ravens had a chance to pull the upset.
It's my belief that if you're in the business of booking bets that you've got all the odds on your side and should take action on everything you can. It just seems to me that when I hear of books refusing bets or limiting action, more often than not they end up costing themselves money. Earlier this year this was a rumor of an off-Strip sports book turning down a million-dollar wager. I never confirmed what they took on the game, but the game lost and the book cost itself money. Granted, I'm sure there's plenty of times that books save their ass with such moves (and those times are less likely to be circulated on the rumor mill as those stories aren't as juicy), but if you're in the business of taking bets, take the bets. Why would books limit the amount they can win?
League-wide betting trends
Five underdogs won outright in Week 13 so it seemed like the dogs were barking, but favorites actually prevailed overall at 9-7 against the spread and now hold a 95-88-1 edge after the ledger was even at 76-76-7 just two weeks ago.
* Home teams also went 9-7 against the spread, but road teams actually hold a slight lead at 93-91-7.
* Home underdogs split 2-2 as the Raiders and Ravens covers but the Chiefs and Bears did not. It certainly looked like the Bears would cover the 1 1/2- and 2-point spreads they were getting most of the week, or at least push on the 1-point spread that closed at the Las Vegas Hilton when they led most of the game and still were ahead 16-14 with less than 2 minutes remaining and the Giants in field-goal range, but the Giants punched it in for the spread-covering TD). For the year, home dogs are a losing proposition at 27-33-1 overall, but still warrant a look in my opinion. There are seven home dogs in this week's 16 games: Lions +11 vs. the Cowboys, Titans +1 vs. the Chargers, Texans +3 vs. the Buccaneers, 49ers +8 vs. the Vikings, Jets +3.5 vs. the Browns, Ravens +9.5 vs. the Colts, and the Falcons +4.5 vs. the Saints. Don't be surprised if several of those are in my official plays later in the week (in fact, I have already personally bet the Lions +11, Titans +1.5, and Falcons +6).
* The Ravens were the only double-digit underdog last weekend and they covered, but DD dogs are still under .500 at 11-12 ATS. This week's big dogs are the Panthers +10.5 vs. the Jaguars, Lions +11 vs. the Cowboys, Raiders +10 vs. the Packers, Steelers +12 vs. the Patriots, and possibly the Ravens +10 vs. the Colts though it looks like it's more likely to dip to 9.5.
* The NFC keeps chipping away at the assumption that the AFC is the superior conference. The interconference games were split 1-1 last week as the AFC's Bills beat the NFC's Redskins but the NFC's Cardinals held off the AFC's Browns. For the year, the NFC is 26-24 straight-up and 25-22-3 against the spread. This week's NFC sides are the Panthers +10.5 vs. the Jaguars, Packers -10 vs. the Raiders, Rams +7 vs. the Bengals, and Buccaneers -3 vs. the Texans. In another AFC/NFC note, after the Patriots' close call vs. the Ravens on Monday night, the Las Vegas Hilton adjusted its Super Bowl line from the AFC -14 to AFC -10.5. It then got bet back up to AFC -11, but that's still a big drop from a high of AFC -17 a few weeks ago.
Line varies on BCS title game
After the losses of the No. 1 and 2 BCS teams (West Virginia and Missouri) on Saturday, all the debate began about which two-loss team would meet Ohio St., which was No. 3 entering the weekend, in the BCS title game on Jan. 7. But by the time the coaches poll came out with LSU moving up to the No. 2 spot, it was pretty much assumed the Tigers would also overtake Georgia (which didn't even win its division of the SEC), so offshore books posted the line of LSU -6.5 (partly based on the game being played in the Louisiana Superdome, giving the Tigers a home-region if not home-field advantage). The Las Vegas Hilton followed suit around 2 p.m. Vegas time with the line at 6.5. The line started drifting down, and when the game was officially announced around 5:30 p.m., other books put up their lines but they weren't all in line. The MGM Mirage books made the line LSU -4.5 while the Stations went with -5 and the Wynn, Palms and Stratosphere went with 6. Later Sunday night, the Leroy's books hung it at LSU -4 (which I grabbed), but there still remained lines as high as 6. In fact, as of this writing on Tuesday morning, Leroy's is still the lowest at LSU -4.5 (which is also the number at the offshore giant CRIS, which actually opened at -3 on Sunday night), with the Stations and MGM Mirage at -5; Caesars, Palms, Wynn, Hilton and Golden Nugget at 5.5; and the Stratosphere at 6.
* However, even though that's the biggest college football betting news, it's not the most interesting line move so far. That goes to the Georgia-Hawaii line in the Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its recommendation as Georgia -8, the offshore book CRIS opened it Georgia -7.5 and the MGM Mirage went with 8.5, but by the end of the night it went as high as 11 before looking like it's settled at 10 now.
* Another line that has moved in favor of the favorite is Virginia Tech going from -1.5 (again, at CRIS and the MGM Grand) vs. Kansas in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl and going up to the current number at -3.5, though it's 4 at the Golden Nugget and Leroy's.
* The other BCS games opened with Southern Cal -14 vs. Illinois in the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl (and now down just slightly to 13.5) and Oklahoma -6.5 vs. West Virginia in the Jan. 2 Fiesta Bowl (still 6.5 at most books though some are dealing -7).
* There really isn't any major line moves to report in the NFL except for the Vikings going from -6.5 at the Hilton in their game at San Francisco up to 8. The only other line to move more than a point was the Hilton posting the Patriots -14.5 vs. the Steelers on Sunday afternoon and it dropping to 12 and as low at 11 at some books Tuesday, but that was based more on an adjustment after Monday night's game.
Five underdogs won outright in Week 13 so it seemed like the dogs were barking, but favorites actually prevailed overall at 9-7 against the spread and now hold a 95-88-1 edge after the ledger was even at 76-76-7 just two weeks ago.
* Home teams also went 9-7 against the spread, but road teams actually hold a slight lead at 93-91-7.
* Home underdogs split 2-2 as the Raiders and Ravens covers but the Chiefs and Bears did not. It certainly looked like the Bears would cover the 1 1/2- and 2-point spreads they were getting most of the week, or at least push on the 1-point spread that closed at the Las Vegas Hilton when they led most of the game and still were ahead 16-14 with less than 2 minutes remaining and the Giants in field-goal range, but the Giants punched it in for the spread-covering TD). For the year, home dogs are a losing proposition at 27-33-1 overall, but still warrant a look in my opinion. There are seven home dogs in this week's 16 games: Lions +11 vs. the Cowboys, Titans +1 vs. the Chargers, Texans +3 vs. the Buccaneers, 49ers +8 vs. the Vikings, Jets +3.5 vs. the Browns, Ravens +9.5 vs. the Colts, and the Falcons +4.5 vs. the Saints. Don't be surprised if several of those are in my official plays later in the week (in fact, I have already personally bet the Lions +11, Titans +1.5, and Falcons +6).
* The Ravens were the only double-digit underdog last weekend and they covered, but DD dogs are still under .500 at 11-12 ATS. This week's big dogs are the Panthers +10.5 vs. the Jaguars, Lions +11 vs. the Cowboys, Raiders +10 vs. the Packers, Steelers +12 vs. the Patriots, and possibly the Ravens +10 vs. the Colts though it looks like it's more likely to dip to 9.5.
* The NFC keeps chipping away at the assumption that the AFC is the superior conference. The interconference games were split 1-1 last week as the AFC's Bills beat the NFC's Redskins but the NFC's Cardinals held off the AFC's Browns. For the year, the NFC is 26-24 straight-up and 25-22-3 against the spread. This week's NFC sides are the Panthers +10.5 vs. the Jaguars, Packers -10 vs. the Raiders, Rams +7 vs. the Bengals, and Buccaneers -3 vs. the Texans. In another AFC/NFC note, after the Patriots' close call vs. the Ravens on Monday night, the Las Vegas Hilton adjusted its Super Bowl line from the AFC -14 to AFC -10.5. It then got bet back up to AFC -11, but that's still a big drop from a high of AFC -17 a few weeks ago.
Line varies on BCS title game
After the losses of the No. 1 and 2 BCS teams (West Virginia and Missouri) on Saturday, all the debate began about which two-loss team would meet Ohio St., which was No. 3 entering the weekend, in the BCS title game on Jan. 7. But by the time the coaches poll came out with LSU moving up to the No. 2 spot, it was pretty much assumed the Tigers would also overtake Georgia (which didn't even win its division of the SEC), so offshore books posted the line of LSU -6.5 (partly based on the game being played in the Louisiana Superdome, giving the Tigers a home-region if not home-field advantage). The Las Vegas Hilton followed suit around 2 p.m. Vegas time with the line at 6.5. The line started drifting down, and when the game was officially announced around 5:30 p.m., other books put up their lines but they weren't all in line. The MGM Mirage books made the line LSU -4.5 while the Stations went with -5 and the Wynn, Palms and Stratosphere went with 6. Later Sunday night, the Leroy's books hung it at LSU -4 (which I grabbed), but there still remained lines as high as 6. In fact, as of this writing on Tuesday morning, Leroy's is still the lowest at LSU -4.5 (which is also the number at the offshore giant CRIS, which actually opened at -3 on Sunday night), with the Stations and MGM Mirage at -5; Caesars, Palms, Wynn, Hilton and Golden Nugget at 5.5; and the Stratosphere at 6.
* However, even though that's the biggest college football betting news, it's not the most interesting line move so far. That goes to the Georgia-Hawaii line in the Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its recommendation as Georgia -8, the offshore book CRIS opened it Georgia -7.5 and the MGM Mirage went with 8.5, but by the end of the night it went as high as 11 before looking like it's settled at 10 now.
* Another line that has moved in favor of the favorite is Virginia Tech going from -1.5 (again, at CRIS and the MGM Grand) vs. Kansas in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl and going up to the current number at -3.5, though it's 4 at the Golden Nugget and Leroy's.
* The other BCS games opened with Southern Cal -14 vs. Illinois in the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl (and now down just slightly to 13.5) and Oklahoma -6.5 vs. West Virginia in the Jan. 2 Fiesta Bowl (still 6.5 at most books though some are dealing -7).
* There really isn't any major line moves to report in the NFL except for the Vikings going from -6.5 at the Hilton in their game at San Francisco up to 8. The only other line to move more than a point was the Hilton posting the Patriots -14.5 vs. the Steelers on Sunday afternoon and it dropping to 12 and as low at 11 at some books Tuesday, but that was based more on an adjustment after Monday night's game.
|
NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Packers (10-2) 9-2-1 6-5-1 Patriots (12-0) 9-3 10-2 Cowboys (11-1) 9-3 9-3 Browns (7-5) 9-3 10-2 Jaguars (8-4) 8-4 8-4 Buccaneers (8-4) 8-4 5-7 Cardinals (6-6) 8-4 7-5 Seahawks (8-4) 7-4-1 5-7 Bills (6-6) 7-4-1 5-7 Vikings (6-6) 6-4-2 6-5-1 Colts (10-2) 7-5 5-7 Steelers (8-4) 7-5 5-7 Giants (8-4) 7-5 5-7 Chargers (7-5) 7-5 7-5 Lions (7-5) 6-5-1 7-5 Titans (7-5) 6-6 4-8 Eagles (5-7) 6-6 6-6 Chiefs (4-8) 5-6-1 5-7 Texans (5-7) 5-7 6-6 Panthers (5-7) 5-7 4-8 Raiders (4-8) 5-7 7-5 Falcons (3-9) 5-7 4-8 Dolphins (0-12) 3-6-3 6-6 Bengals (4-8) 4-7-1 6-6 Jets (3-9) 4-7-1 6-6 Redskins (5-7) 3-7-2 5-7 Bears (5-7) 4-8 6-6 Saints (5-7) 4-8 6-6 Rams (3-9) 4-8 4-8 Broncos (5-7) 3-9 10-2 49ers (3-9) 3-9 5-7 Ravens (4-8) 2-10 7-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
Comments