Packers move atop NFL ATS Standings
Of course, the Packers have only been asked to cover a double-digit spread once (Week 10 vs. the Panthers) and were underdogs in Week 8 vs. the Broncos and Week 9 vs. the Chiefs. It's much easier to cover spreads in those situations as opposed to the Patriots who had covered five double-digit spreads this year before falling short vs. the Eagles on Sunday night when laying 24 points (and more at some sports books).
The Packers are getting points again this week when they travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, who are 8-3 against the spread themselves. Last week in the advance lines offered at the Las Vegas Hilton, this line was Dallas -6. Both teams won on Thanksgiving and the number was reposted at the Hilton on Sunday night as Dallas -7. It quickly got bet down to 6.5 and that's where it sat through Sunday night and at just about every sports book in the world throughout the day on Monday, but then in late afternoon (basically, in the hour leading up to the Dolphins-Steelers game) the lines started getting moved to 7 and now it's a pretty solid 7 everywhere. I'll tip my hand and say that one of my plays later this week will be on the Packers plus the points.
There are four teams at 7-4 in the ATS Standings as the Colts, Jaguars and Buccaneers won and covered this past week to catch the Cardinals, who lost outright to the 49ers. The Seahawks and Bills round out the top 10 at 6-4-1 as the only other teams to be covering at a 60-percent clip.
* The Ravens continue to be the biggest disappointment for bettors as they are a league-worst 1-10 ATS. They failed to cover their first five games of the season, and now are on another five-game non-cover streak and have lost all five of those games outright, including two as favorites. Oddsmakers will try and even out this trend like they usually do, and we see they're 20.5-point dogs at home this Monday night vs. the Patriots. The Ravens' only point-spread cover this year was in Week 6 vs. the Rams, another underachieving team that is tied for the second-worst spread record at 3-8 with the 49ers and Broncos. The Jets are barely ahead of those teams at 3-7-1, with the Bears, Saints, Panthers and Raiders at 4-7.
* The Falcons went over last week in their 31-13 loss to the Colts (which was set low at 42 points as the Colts have also turned into an under team) and drop into a first-place tie for the best under record at 8-3 with the Panthers, Rams and Titans.
League-wide betting trends
Heading into last week, favorites and underdogs were split exactly at 76-76-7 with the spread. Favorites went 10-5 ATS to improve to 86-81-5 on the season. The reason for only 15 games being included was the Broncos-Bears game closed pick-em at the Las Vegas Hilton. Most books kept the Bears as a small favorite as they were all week.
* Road teams continue to hold their own, going 9-7 ATS last week and holding a slight edge at 86-82-7 on the year.
* In totals wagering, overs went 9-7 last week and hold a negligible lead at 89-86-1,
* Home dogs continued to under perform, going 0-4 both SU and ATS last week and now stand at 25-31-1. Fortunately I avoided those plays last week but will take a look at some of them this week: Chiefs +5 vs. the Chargers, Raiders +3.5 vs. the Broncos, Bears +2 vs. the Giants, and Ravens +20.5 vs. the Patriots.
* Double-digit underdogs came through at 3-2 ATS last week, though they needed the covers in the Sunday and Monday night games to get over the hump, and are 10-12 on the year. This week's only big dog is the Ravens +20.5 vs. the Patriots (think that might be one of my plays as well this week?).
* The best part of writing this trends column is the feedback I get from people who say that it helped them make a winning bet, but also the ones that say it kept them from making a losing bet. The thing most people have written/called about this season has been me pointing out that while most people say the AFC is stronger than the NFC, that's not a good reason to automatically bet on the AFC. This past week, the interconference games were split 2-2 on the scoreboard with the NFC going 3-1 ATS. For the year, the NFC is 25-23 SU and 24-21-3 ATS vs. the AFC. Since I've been calling these "AFC plays" most of the year, some might say I'm jinxing it by now saying that the NFC plays would be Redskins -5.5 vs. the Bills and Cardinals -1 vs. the Browns.
Other sports results, and looking ahead
The Las Vegas Invitational college basketball tournament at the Orleans Arena here in town didn't turn out as planned. It was set up to feature a championship game between two top 10 ranked teams — North Carolina and Louisville — last Saturday night, but Louisville, as a 5.5-point favorite, was upset by BYU 78-76 on Friday. North Carolina went on to win the title with a 73-63 win over BYU that covered the 8-point spread (barely).
* LSU's loss to Arkansas last Friday turned the college football world upside down and put Missouri and West Virginia in position to control their own destiny heading into their games on Saturday. Despite being No. 1 in the BCS Standings, Missouri is a 3-point underdog to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game (if you look at the Oddmakers' Top 30 Poll by Las Vegas Sports Consultants on the ViewFromVegas.com Oddsmakers' View page, you'll see why). West Virginia is a 28-point favorite over Pittsburgh.
* In the annual Skins Game, Stephen Ames won the first hole last Saturday on the first day of the two-day event, then didn't win again until the final hole on Sunday. But that was good enough to give him $675,000 in earnings and win his second straight Skins title. Ames was the 2-1 favorite at the Hilton in wagering before the event.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Packers (10-1) 9-1-1 5-5-1 Patriots (11-0) 9-2 9-2 Browns (7-4) 9-2 10-1 Cowboys (10-1) 8-3 8-3Colts (9-2) 7-4 4-7 Jaguars (8-3) 7-4 7-4 Buccaneers (7-4) 7-4 4-7 Cardinals (5-6) 7-4 7-4 Seahawks (7-4) 6-4-1 4-7 Bills (5-6) 6-4-1 5-6 Vikings (5-6) 5-4-2 5-5-1 Steelers (7-4) 6-5 5-6 Giants (7-4) 6-5 5-6 Chargers (6-5) 6-5 7-4 Eagles (5-6) 6-5 5-6 Lions (6-5) 5-5-1 6-5 Chiefs (4-7) 5-5-1 5-6 Titans (6-5) 5-6 3-8 Texans (5-6) 5-6 5-6 Falcons (3-8) 5-6 3-8 Dolphins (0-11) 3-5-3 5-6 Bengals (4-7) 4-6-1 6-5 Redskins (5-6) 3-6-2 5-6 Bears (5-6) 4-7 6-5 Saints (5-6) 4-7 5-6 Panthers (4-7) 4-7 3-8 Raiders (3-8) 4-7 6-5 Jets (2-9) 3-7-1 5-6 Broncos (5-6) 3-8 9-2 49ers (3-8) 3-8 4-7 Rams (2-9) 3-8 3-8 Ravens (4-7) 1-10 6-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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