Led by Pats, favorites rule Week 11
After last week when favorites only went 7-7 straight-up (that's right, underdogs won half of the games outright in Week 10) and 5-8-1 against the spread, they dominated this past weekend by winning 14 of the 16 games and going 12-4 against the spread.
Of course, the most dominant team was the Patriots as they beat the Bills 56-10 on Sunday night and made the 16.5-point spread look like a gimme. Oddsmakers have struggled to catch up with the Pats as bettors have continued to bet them no matter what the number is . . . and the Patriots have covered all but one spread so far this season. Before the Sunday night game, the Las Vegas Hilton put up a line of Patriots -17 vs. the Eagles for this upcoming week's meeting. After the rout, the line was opened back up on Monday morning as Patriots -20. The oddsmaking firm Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out recommended numbers of Pats -18 if McNabb is in and -22 if he is out. Bettors didn't seem to care as they bet the Pats up to -24 by mid-afternoon before it settled back to -23. Other books in town had it at -22 or -23, obviously thinking that they didn't have to wait to see if McNabb would play (after all, just as in the past, McNabb went out of Sunday's game with the Dolphins and his backup led the team to victory in his absence) and knowing that the public is just blindly betting the Pats no matter what the line is.
We might as well let the Pats dominate the start of this article as well. LVSC has sent out lines on the Patriots in the Super Bowl vs. the NFC's top teams: Pats -15 vs. the Cowboys (which is close to the line that many of the casinos in town have been posting on the AFC-NFC matchup, with the Hilton currently at AFC -15.5) with a total of 60, Pats -17 vs. the Packers with a total of 56, Pats -20 vs. the Giants with a total of 58, Pats -21 vs. the Seahawks with a total of 57, and Pats -22 vs. the field of all other NFC teams with a total of 56.
And the reason people are betting the Patriots blindly is that no matter how high the oddsmakers make the spread, they've still been covering, boasting the best ATS record at 9-1 (see the NFL ATS Standings at the bottom of the column). The Packers are right behind at 8-1-1, the Browns are 8-2 and the Cowboys and Cardinals at 7-3.
The Ravens were looking like they would beat the Browns on Sunday until Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson played pinball with the upright and the support post that connects to the crossbar, leaving the Ravens with the worst spread record at 1-9. The 49ers are in a freefall at 2-8 with the Broncos, Saints, Bears, Raiders and Rams at 3-7, though the Broncos and Rams have each won two straight.
In totals wagering, the Browns continue to be the best bet around at 10-0 this season (the Browns/over parlay is at 8-2, as is the Patriots). This week, the Browns host the Texans with a total that has been inflated to 51. The Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos are 8-2 with the over while no other team is 70 percent or higher.
The Falcons went over in Sunday's game with the Buccaneers but still lead the league at 8-2 with the under. The Titans, Panthers, Rams, 49ers and (surprisingly) the Colts are 7-3 with the under. On Thanksgiving night, the Falcons host the Colts with a total of 41.
League-wide betting trends
As mentioned above, favorites went 12-4 ATS this past weekend. For the year, the score is Favorites 76, Underdogs 76, Pushes 7 (note: the reason for the odds numbered total of games is that the Bills-Bengals game in Week 9 closed at pick-em so there was no favorite.
Home and road winners were split 8-8 last week and road teams lead 77-75-7 on the season (the reason this is an odd number is that the Giants-Dolphins in London didn't have a "home" team).
You might be noticing a trend with a lot of these trends: they're all evening out the farther we go into the season. Overs went 10-6 for the week and hold the slightest of edges at 80-79-1.
Home underdogs were hitting at a 60-percent clip at 18-12 through the first six weeks of the season, but after going 1-5 SU and ATS last week, they're now below .500 a 25-27-1, or a record of 7-15-1 the past five weeks. If you think home dogs can bark again, the plays this week would be the Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving day, the Falcons +11.5 vs. the Colts on Thanksgiving night, the Bengals +2 vs. the Titans, the Rams +3 vs. the Seahawks and the Panthers +3 vs. the Saints.
Double-digit dogs haven't been as profitable as in year's past as they're 7-10 ATS, though there will be plenty of more opportunities down the stretch with the public perceiving a wide difference between the haves and the have-nots. This week's big dogs are the Jets +14.5 vs. the Cowboys and Falcons +11.5 vs. the Colts. on Thanksgiving, the 49ers +10 vs. the Cardinals, the Eagles +23 vs. the Patriots and the Dolphins +16 vs. the Steelers.
This paragraph might soon be known as the NFC superiority trend. OK, maybe not, but I've been writing all year about how the AFC is assumed to be stronger from top to bottom; however, last week the NFC went 3-1 SU and ATS in interconference games and are now 23-21 SU and 21-20-3 ATS on the season. I'm kicking myself because last week in the "Tuesdays With Tuley" column, I wrote "and here's where my contrarian senses are tingling to go the other way" when running down the AFC plays, yet I only trusted my gut instinct with the Cardinals vs. the Bengals. This week's AFC plays would be the Jets +14.5 vs. the Cowboys, Colts -11.5 vs. the Falcons, Broncos +2.5 vs. the Bears, and the Patriots -23 vs. the Eagles.
This last item won't help you this season, but teams that were coming off of their bye week were 4-0 SU and ATS last week and finished 18-11-1 ATS this season (the Steelers and Broncos aren't included as they faced each other in Week 7 after having byes on the same week). Interestingly enough, teams were also 18-11-1 the week before their bye (the Giants and Dolphins aren't included as they both had a bye following their London matchup).
Other sports of all sorts
Oregon's loss at Arizona last Thursday night has paved the way for Kansas and LSU to meet in the BCS title game if they can run the table. But that's far from a foregone conclusion, especially the way this season has gone, as Kansas has to play Missouri and LSU faces Arkansas this Saturday, and then both have to get through tough conference championship games. The Las Vegas Hilton has updated odds on who will win the BCS title game with LSU at 5-4, the "field of all others" (which is basically Kansas as the Jayhawks weren't on the list prior to the season) and Missouri both at 5-1, West Virginia and Ohio St. both at 6-1, and Arizona St. at 12-1 if it can beat USC and then have four teams falter in front of them.
* Jimmie Johnson won the Nextel Cup points championship on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Johnson held a substantial lead over teammate Jeff Gordon and only needed to finish 18th or better to clinch. Back in February before the Daytona 500 started the season, Station Casinos had Johnson as the 5-1 co-favorite along with Tony Stewart. With the race-within-a-race between Johnson and Gordon, it was hardly noticed that Matt Kenseth won the actual race at odds of 7-1.
* The next big fight here is set for Dec. 8 between undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. of Las Vegas and the similarly unbeaten Ricky Hatton of Britain. Mayweather is a -270 favorite.
Of course, the most dominant team was the Patriots as they beat the Bills 56-10 on Sunday night and made the 16.5-point spread look like a gimme. Oddsmakers have struggled to catch up with the Pats as bettors have continued to bet them no matter what the number is . . . and the Patriots have covered all but one spread so far this season. Before the Sunday night game, the Las Vegas Hilton put up a line of Patriots -17 vs. the Eagles for this upcoming week's meeting. After the rout, the line was opened back up on Monday morning as Patriots -20. The oddsmaking firm Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out recommended numbers of Pats -18 if McNabb is in and -22 if he is out. Bettors didn't seem to care as they bet the Pats up to -24 by mid-afternoon before it settled back to -23. Other books in town had it at -22 or -23, obviously thinking that they didn't have to wait to see if McNabb would play (after all, just as in the past, McNabb went out of Sunday's game with the Dolphins and his backup led the team to victory in his absence) and knowing that the public is just blindly betting the Pats no matter what the line is.
We might as well let the Pats dominate the start of this article as well. LVSC has sent out lines on the Patriots in the Super Bowl vs. the NFC's top teams: Pats -15 vs. the Cowboys (which is close to the line that many of the casinos in town have been posting on the AFC-NFC matchup, with the Hilton currently at AFC -15.5) with a total of 60, Pats -17 vs. the Packers with a total of 56, Pats -20 vs. the Giants with a total of 58, Pats -21 vs. the Seahawks with a total of 57, and Pats -22 vs. the field of all other NFC teams with a total of 56.
And the reason people are betting the Patriots blindly is that no matter how high the oddsmakers make the spread, they've still been covering, boasting the best ATS record at 9-1 (see the NFL ATS Standings at the bottom of the column). The Packers are right behind at 8-1-1, the Browns are 8-2 and the Cowboys and Cardinals at 7-3.
The Ravens were looking like they would beat the Browns on Sunday until Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson played pinball with the upright and the support post that connects to the crossbar, leaving the Ravens with the worst spread record at 1-9. The 49ers are in a freefall at 2-8 with the Broncos, Saints, Bears, Raiders and Rams at 3-7, though the Broncos and Rams have each won two straight.
In totals wagering, the Browns continue to be the best bet around at 10-0 this season (the Browns/over parlay is at 8-2, as is the Patriots). This week, the Browns host the Texans with a total that has been inflated to 51. The Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos are 8-2 with the over while no other team is 70 percent or higher.
The Falcons went over in Sunday's game with the Buccaneers but still lead the league at 8-2 with the under. The Titans, Panthers, Rams, 49ers and (surprisingly) the Colts are 7-3 with the under. On Thanksgiving night, the Falcons host the Colts with a total of 41.
League-wide betting trends
As mentioned above, favorites went 12-4 ATS this past weekend. For the year, the score is Favorites 76, Underdogs 76, Pushes 7 (note: the reason for the odds numbered total of games is that the Bills-Bengals game in Week 9 closed at pick-em so there was no favorite.
Home and road winners were split 8-8 last week and road teams lead 77-75-7 on the season (the reason this is an odd number is that the Giants-Dolphins in London didn't have a "home" team).
You might be noticing a trend with a lot of these trends: they're all evening out the farther we go into the season. Overs went 10-6 for the week and hold the slightest of edges at 80-79-1.
Home underdogs were hitting at a 60-percent clip at 18-12 through the first six weeks of the season, but after going 1-5 SU and ATS last week, they're now below .500 a 25-27-1, or a record of 7-15-1 the past five weeks. If you think home dogs can bark again, the plays this week would be the Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving day, the Falcons +11.5 vs. the Colts on Thanksgiving night, the Bengals +2 vs. the Titans, the Rams +3 vs. the Seahawks and the Panthers +3 vs. the Saints.
Double-digit dogs haven't been as profitable as in year's past as they're 7-10 ATS, though there will be plenty of more opportunities down the stretch with the public perceiving a wide difference between the haves and the have-nots. This week's big dogs are the Jets +14.5 vs. the Cowboys and Falcons +11.5 vs. the Colts. on Thanksgiving, the 49ers +10 vs. the Cardinals, the Eagles +23 vs. the Patriots and the Dolphins +16 vs. the Steelers.
This paragraph might soon be known as the NFC superiority trend. OK, maybe not, but I've been writing all year about how the AFC is assumed to be stronger from top to bottom; however, last week the NFC went 3-1 SU and ATS in interconference games and are now 23-21 SU and 21-20-3 ATS on the season. I'm kicking myself because last week in the "Tuesdays With Tuley" column, I wrote "and here's where my contrarian senses are tingling to go the other way" when running down the AFC plays, yet I only trusted my gut instinct with the Cardinals vs. the Bengals. This week's AFC plays would be the Jets +14.5 vs. the Cowboys, Colts -11.5 vs. the Falcons, Broncos +2.5 vs. the Bears, and the Patriots -23 vs. the Eagles.
This last item won't help you this season, but teams that were coming off of their bye week were 4-0 SU and ATS last week and finished 18-11-1 ATS this season (the Steelers and Broncos aren't included as they faced each other in Week 7 after having byes on the same week). Interestingly enough, teams were also 18-11-1 the week before their bye (the Giants and Dolphins aren't included as they both had a bye following their London matchup).
Other sports of all sorts
Oregon's loss at Arizona last Thursday night has paved the way for Kansas and LSU to meet in the BCS title game if they can run the table. But that's far from a foregone conclusion, especially the way this season has gone, as Kansas has to play Missouri and LSU faces Arkansas this Saturday, and then both have to get through tough conference championship games. The Las Vegas Hilton has updated odds on who will win the BCS title game with LSU at 5-4, the "field of all others" (which is basically Kansas as the Jayhawks weren't on the list prior to the season) and Missouri both at 5-1, West Virginia and Ohio St. both at 6-1, and Arizona St. at 12-1 if it can beat USC and then have four teams falter in front of them.
* Jimmie Johnson won the Nextel Cup points championship on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Johnson held a substantial lead over teammate Jeff Gordon and only needed to finish 18th or better to clinch. Back in February before the Daytona 500 started the season, Station Casinos had Johnson as the 5-1 co-favorite along with Tony Stewart. With the race-within-a-race between Johnson and Gordon, it was hardly noticed that Matt Kenseth won the actual race at odds of 7-1.
* The next big fight here is set for Dec. 8 between undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. of Las Vegas and the similarly unbeaten Ricky Hatton of Britain. Mayweather is a -270 favorite.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (10-0) 9-1 8-2 Packers (9-1) 8-1-1 4-5-1 Browns (6-4) 8-2 10-0 Cowboys (9-1) 7-3 8-2Cardinals (5-5) 7-3 6-4 Bills (5-5) 6-3-1 4-6 Colts (8-2) 6-4 3-7 Steelers (7-3) 6-4 5-5 Jaguars (7-3) 6-4 6-4 Giants (7-3) 6-4 4-6 Buccaneers (6-4) 6-4 4-6 Lions (6-4) 5-4-1 5-5 Seahawks (6-4) 5-4-1 4-6 Chiefs (4-6) 5-4-1 4-6 Vikings (4-6) 4-4-2 4-5-1 Titans (6-4) 5-5 3-7 Chargers (5-5) 5-5 6-4Texans (5-5) 5-5 5-5 Eagles (5-5) 5-5 4-6 Falcons (3-7) 5-5 2-8 Panthers (4-6) 4-6 3-7 Redskins (5-5) 3-5-2 5-5 Dolphins (0-10) 2-5-3 5-5 Bengals (3-7) 3-6-1 6-4 Jets (2-8) 3-6-1 5-5 Broncos (5-5) 3-7 8-2 Saints (4-6) 3-7 5-5 Bears (4-6) 3-7 5-5 Raiders (2-8) 3-7 5-5 Rams (2-8) 3-7 3-7 49ers (2-8) 2-8 3-7 Ravens (4-6) 1-9 5-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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