Dogs on Sunday lead to another Tuley contest score
In general, football bookmakers love it when the dogs are barking. The betting public tends to back the favorites, and when they fail to cover, the books clean up on not only the majority of the straight betting action but it also knocks out a lot of parlay liability.
This Sunday was no different as underdogs went 8-4-1 against the spread and won seven of those games outright. The only favorites to win and cover were the Cowboys, Bears, Cardinals and Packers, and in that last game most of the public and the professional bettors were on the underdog, so the books cleaned up there, too. The day was capped when the Chargers held off the Colts 23-21 on Sunday night when the Colts were in position to win it but had a 1st-and-goal overturned by replay and Adam Vinatieri missed a rare clutch field goal.
Monday night's game between the Seahawks and 49ers didn't have as much parlay action tied to it as usual, so books weren't sweating out a major decision as the Seahawks won 24-0 as a favorite to make dogs 8-5-1 overall on the week.
But even if it wasn't the most riveting game the masses, it was of great interest to yours truly, Dave Tuley. When the sports books have their best days, that's often when underdog or contrarian bettors like myself also do their best. Many readers may already know that under my alter ego of Tuley the Tout, I went 5-0 against the spread with four underdogs as well as the Cowboys. I liked a lot of other underdogs on the day and I play most of the handicapping contests, so it turned out by the end of the day that I had a card in the Palms football contest that was 12-1.
Even though I had the Rams beating the Saints on all my tickets in all contests, I had the Browns on more than 90 percent but on a fluke I had subbed in the Steelers on that ticket. To show the precarious nature of playing these contests, I ended up with my only loss on the ticket being the Titans even though I had my money on the Jaguars plus the points as one of my top five plays and used the Jags on 90 percent of my overall entries. So, while I was thisclose to having a perfect ticket on the week despite all the upsets, I was certainly lucky not to have two losses on the ticket and wouldn't have been able to catch the leader (and that's what happened with all my other entries at the Palms as well as Station Casinos, Coast Casinos, et al). My MNF tiebreaker was 24 points, so it basically came down to me needing the Seahawks to win straight up and the score to stay at 31 points or less to win the $10,000 first-place prize. A Seattle victory with more than 31 points would have been worth a $5,000 second-place prize with a 49ers' upset meaning a likely much smaller consolation. Although it looked like scoring might go through the roof as the Seahawks scored a touchdown on their first drive and recovered a fumble in 49ers' territory on the ensuing possession and added a quick field goal, scoring slowed down the rest of the game, especially thanks to the 49ers' inept offense, and it landed exactly on my total of 24 (the contest equivalent of piling on).
A full list of my contest wins (which also tended to fall on weekend when underdogs flourished) are in the story two weeks ago on a smaller score at the Cannery.
NFL betting trends
The 8-5-1 record for underdogs was the first one over .500 since Week 4 (Week 5 and 7 were split 7-7 between favorites and dogs) and improved their mark to 72-64-7 overall.
Road teams, which mostly were dogs, went 9-4-1 against the spread and have totally eliminated home-field advantage vs. the spread as they now lead 69-67-7 on the year.
While it was a big week for dogs in general, home dogs actually only went 1-2-1 ATS with the Chargers pulling the feat while the Raiders and Giants lost and the Dolphins pushed vs. the Bills. For the year, home dogs are just about even with the vig at 24-22-1. This week's home dogs are the Ravens +3 vs. the Browns, Jets +9 vs. Steelers, Falcons +3 vs. Buccaneers, Bills +15.5 vs. Patriots, Lions +3 vs. Giants, and 49ers +2.5 vs. Rams.
Double-digit underdogs have been struggling a lot this year as they were only 3-8 ATS heading into last week, but then the Browns and Rams both covered as 10-point dogs on Sunday with the Rams being only the second big dog to pull an outright upset (the Chiefs over the Chargers in Week 4 was the other). So, double-digit dogs are now 5-8, but if you think they're starting a run, this week's plays would be Chiefs +14.5 vs. the Colts, Dolphins +10 vs. the Eagles, Bills +15.5 vs. the Patriots, Redskins +10.5 vs. the Cowboys. The Dolphins' play might dip to 9.5, but there are two other games on the cusp with the Jets +9.5 vs. the Steelers and the Panthers +9.5 vs. the Packers.
Conventional wisdom says the AFC is superior to the NFC, but while the hierarchy of the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers are stronger than the NFC's Cowboys, Packers and whoever else you want to throw in (Giants, Lions, Seahawks???), the numbers show that the interconference ledger is at 20-20 straight up and the AFC holds the slightest of edges at 19-18-3 against the spread. For those siding with conventional wisdom (and here's where my contrarian senses are tingling to go the other way), the AFC sides would be Raiders +5 vs. the Vikings, Bengals -3 vs. the Cardinals (in fact, I already took the Cards +3.5 earlier in the week), Dolphins +10 vs. the Eagles, and Texans -1 vs. the Saints (I'm on the Saints).
NFL ATS Standings
The Patriots, despite failing to cover for the first time this season in their Week 9 victory over the Patriots, still have the league's best spread record at 8-1 (the full chart is below). The Packers have closed the gap and stand at 7-1-1, followed by the Cowboys and Browns at 7-2. The only other team covering at a better than 70-percent clip is the Bills at 6-2-1.
On the bottom of the ledger, the Ravens are now a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only cover being in Week 6 vs. the Rams, who despite winning last week are still tied with the 49ers and Broncos for the second-worst spread record at 2-7. The Jets (2-6-1) and Redskins (2-5-2) are the only other teams below 30 percent.
In totals wagering, the Browns continue to go over in every game at 9-0 with the Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos a full two games back at 7-2. Flipping the records around, the Falcons are now the best under team at 8-1 while the Titans and Panthers are 7-2.
This Sunday was no different as underdogs went 8-4-1 against the spread and won seven of those games outright. The only favorites to win and cover were the Cowboys, Bears, Cardinals and Packers, and in that last game most of the public and the professional bettors were on the underdog, so the books cleaned up there, too. The day was capped when the Chargers held off the Colts 23-21 on Sunday night when the Colts were in position to win it but had a 1st-and-goal overturned by replay and Adam Vinatieri missed a rare clutch field goal.
Monday night's game between the Seahawks and 49ers didn't have as much parlay action tied to it as usual, so books weren't sweating out a major decision as the Seahawks won 24-0 as a favorite to make dogs 8-5-1 overall on the week.
But even if it wasn't the most riveting game the masses, it was of great interest to yours truly, Dave Tuley. When the sports books have their best days, that's often when underdog or contrarian bettors like myself also do their best. Many readers may already know that under my alter ego of Tuley the Tout, I went 5-0 against the spread with four underdogs as well as the Cowboys. I liked a lot of other underdogs on the day and I play most of the handicapping contests, so it turned out by the end of the day that I had a card in the Palms football contest that was 12-1.
Even though I had the Rams beating the Saints on all my tickets in all contests, I had the Browns on more than 90 percent but on a fluke I had subbed in the Steelers on that ticket. To show the precarious nature of playing these contests, I ended up with my only loss on the ticket being the Titans even though I had my money on the Jaguars plus the points as one of my top five plays and used the Jags on 90 percent of my overall entries. So, while I was thisclose to having a perfect ticket on the week despite all the upsets, I was certainly lucky not to have two losses on the ticket and wouldn't have been able to catch the leader (and that's what happened with all my other entries at the Palms as well as Station Casinos, Coast Casinos, et al). My MNF tiebreaker was 24 points, so it basically came down to me needing the Seahawks to win straight up and the score to stay at 31 points or less to win the $10,000 first-place prize. A Seattle victory with more than 31 points would have been worth a $5,000 second-place prize with a 49ers' upset meaning a likely much smaller consolation. Although it looked like scoring might go through the roof as the Seahawks scored a touchdown on their first drive and recovered a fumble in 49ers' territory on the ensuing possession and added a quick field goal, scoring slowed down the rest of the game, especially thanks to the 49ers' inept offense, and it landed exactly on my total of 24 (the contest equivalent of piling on).
A full list of my contest wins (which also tended to fall on weekend when underdogs flourished) are in the story two weeks ago on a smaller score at the Cannery.
NFL betting trends
The 8-5-1 record for underdogs was the first one over .500 since Week 4 (Week 5 and 7 were split 7-7 between favorites and dogs) and improved their mark to 72-64-7 overall.
Road teams, which mostly were dogs, went 9-4-1 against the spread and have totally eliminated home-field advantage vs. the spread as they now lead 69-67-7 on the year.
While it was a big week for dogs in general, home dogs actually only went 1-2-1 ATS with the Chargers pulling the feat while the Raiders and Giants lost and the Dolphins pushed vs. the Bills. For the year, home dogs are just about even with the vig at 24-22-1. This week's home dogs are the Ravens +3 vs. the Browns, Jets +9 vs. Steelers, Falcons +3 vs. Buccaneers, Bills +15.5 vs. Patriots, Lions +3 vs. Giants, and 49ers +2.5 vs. Rams.
Double-digit underdogs have been struggling a lot this year as they were only 3-8 ATS heading into last week, but then the Browns and Rams both covered as 10-point dogs on Sunday with the Rams being only the second big dog to pull an outright upset (the Chiefs over the Chargers in Week 4 was the other). So, double-digit dogs are now 5-8, but if you think they're starting a run, this week's plays would be Chiefs +14.5 vs. the Colts, Dolphins +10 vs. the Eagles, Bills +15.5 vs. the Patriots, Redskins +10.5 vs. the Cowboys. The Dolphins' play might dip to 9.5, but there are two other games on the cusp with the Jets +9.5 vs. the Steelers and the Panthers +9.5 vs. the Packers.
Conventional wisdom says the AFC is superior to the NFC, but while the hierarchy of the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers are stronger than the NFC's Cowboys, Packers and whoever else you want to throw in (Giants, Lions, Seahawks???), the numbers show that the interconference ledger is at 20-20 straight up and the AFC holds the slightest of edges at 19-18-3 against the spread. For those siding with conventional wisdom (and here's where my contrarian senses are tingling to go the other way), the AFC sides would be Raiders +5 vs. the Vikings, Bengals -3 vs. the Cardinals (in fact, I already took the Cards +3.5 earlier in the week), Dolphins +10 vs. the Eagles, and Texans -1 vs. the Saints (I'm on the Saints).
NFL ATS Standings
The Patriots, despite failing to cover for the first time this season in their Week 9 victory over the Patriots, still have the league's best spread record at 8-1 (the full chart is below). The Packers have closed the gap and stand at 7-1-1, followed by the Cowboys and Browns at 7-2. The only other team covering at a better than 70-percent clip is the Bills at 6-2-1.
On the bottom of the ledger, the Ravens are now a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only cover being in Week 6 vs. the Rams, who despite winning last week are still tied with the 49ers and Broncos for the second-worst spread record at 2-7. The Jets (2-6-1) and Redskins (2-5-2) are the only other teams below 30 percent.
In totals wagering, the Browns continue to go over in every game at 9-0 with the Patriots, Cowboys and Broncos a full two games back at 7-2. Flipping the records around, the Falcons are now the best under team at 8-1 while the Titans and Panthers are 7-2.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (9-0) 8-1 7-2 Packers (8-1) 7-1-1 3-5-1 Cowboys (8-1) 7-2 7-2 Browns (5-4) 7-2 9-0 Bills (5-4) 6-2-1 3-6 Steelers (7-2) 6-3 5-4 Colts (7-2) 6-3 3-6 Buccaneers (6-3) 6-3 3-6 Cardinals (4-5) 6-3 5-4 Lions (6-3) 5-3-1 5-4 Jaguars (6-3) 5-4 5-4 Giants (6-3) 5-4 4-5 Titans (6-3) 5-4 2-7 Chargers (5-4) 5-4 5-4Falcons (3-6) 5-4 1-8 Seahawks (5-4) 4-4-1 3-6 Chiefs (4-5) 4-4-1 4-5 Vikings (3-6) 3-4-2 3-5-1 Texans (4-5) 4-5 5-4 Eagles (4-5) 4-5 4-5 Panthers (4-5) 4-5 2-7 Bengals (3-6) 3-5-1 5-4 Saints (4-5) 3-6 5-4 Bears (4-5) 3-6 4-5 Raiders (2-7) 3-6 4-5 Dolphins (0-9) 2-4-3 5-4 Redskins (5-4) 2-5-2 4-5 Jets (1-8) 2-6-1 5-4 Broncos (4-5) 2-7 7-2 49ers (2-7) 2-7 3-6 Rams (1-8) 2-7 3-6 Ravens (4-5) 1-8 4-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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