Patriots finally lose (vs. spread)
This season's game of the year is behind us as the Patriots beat the Colts 24-20 on Sunday.
It seemed to be all anyone wanted to talk about this past week. What really struck me was how widely discussed the point spread was in newspaper, radio and TV reports. Every one seemed to know the Patriots were favored by around 5 points. At Super Bowl time, everyone hears about the point spread, but it's rare to see this much attention given to a line during the regular season. Even the coaches talked openly about the spread, which is rarer still.
There was a lot of misinformation circulating about the point spread as many "experts" predicted the line would go to 7 (which it never did) as they didn't take into account that the Colts are a public team, too. And, since some people talked about the fact that some lines of Pats -3 were available in recent weeks, and the MGM Mirage opening the line at Pats -3.5 last Sunday, some people on posting forums made the improper inference that the books got "middled" and lost lots of money (which they didn't).
(Note: what most didn't report was that the Las Vegas Hilton had the Pats -1.5 just four weeks ago, which I reported on the Marc Lawrence podcast at playbook.com, and that it was pick-em at the start of the season.)
However, in the aftermath of the game, all the media coverage focused on the Patriots rallying for the victory and keeping their undefeated season alive. Nary a word was uttered that they failed to cover the spread.
Now, I guess that's the way it's supposed to be with the mainstream media discussing everything in relation to who won the game, while it's left to ViewFromVegas.com to discuss the game within the game in relation to the point spread.
The Colts were in control most of the game from a straight-up standpoint but especially a point-spread standpoint when they pulled ahead 20-10 with 9:42 to play. About the only way Indy backers could lose their bets would be for the Pats to get a touchdown and a field goal to force overtime and then win on a TD in OT. Instead, Tom Brady rallied New England with two TDs in the next four minutes to win by 4. But Indy bettors still had a scare when Peyton Manning fumbled with more than two minutes remaining and Roosevelt Colvin grabbed it for the Pats (those who had the Browns +16 vs. New England in Week 5 only to see the Pats return a fumble for a spread-covering TD in the final minute certainly had flashbacks). And then, instead of going for the jugular, the Pats got one first down and then took three kneel-downs after the 2-minute warning.
Contrary to people say the books lost money on the game, the result was just about perfect for bet takers. Even though there were those lower numbers on the Pats, the handle on those lines was just a drop in the bucket (and only at a very few books). The vast majority of bets on the game were at 4.5, 5 and 5.5, with bets coming in heavy on the Patriots on all numbers. It also helped the books that the Patriots won the game and the books didn't have to pay off on Colts' money-line wagers of between +180 and +200 (9-5 to 2-1 for horse players).
The books also were happy to see it go under the total of 56.5 as more parlays were written on both teams to the over (note: the Pats/over parlay had hit in seven of their first eight games this year).
For the day, the books did well but gave back some profits when the Cowboys pulled off the favorite/over parlay in beating the Eagles 38-17 on Sunday night. The Steelers' 38-7 win over the Ravens on Monday night was also a favorite/over result.
NFL ATS Standings
Despite the non-cover Sunday, the Patriots still have the league's best spread record at 8-1 (see chart on the bottom of the column). The Packers closed the gap by beating the Chiefs 33-22 to improve to 6-1-1 while the Colts, Cowboys, Steelers, Browns and Bills are all 6-2 while the Lions are 5-2-1. You'll note that every one of those teams covered their games this past week with the exception of the Patriots, who of course faced the Colts. In fact, every team on the chart with a winning spread record covered this week except for the Cardinals and Chiefs, and they both also faced teams in the upper echelon.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Rams, Broncos and Ravens are all 1-7 against the spread. The Jets got out of the cellar at 2-6-1 with their 23-20 loss vs. the Redskins as a 3.5-point underdog. The Bears and 49ers are both 2-6.
The best bet in the NFL this season has been the Browns at 8-0 with the over. The Patriots slipped to 7-2 while the Cowboys and Broncos are 6-2. The first three teams have mostly done it with their offense, while the Broncos have done it with a lack of defense.
The Titans and Falcons at 7-1 with the under, while the Panthers and Rams are 2-6.
League-wide betting trends
Aided by the Cowboys and Steelers turning the Sunday and Monday night games into routs, favorites went 8-5 against the spread this week. Underdogs still have a 64-59-6 edge but it's barely profitable with the 10-percent vig. The reason the total games adds up to 129 when there has been 130 NFL games played is because the Bengals-Bills game this Sunday closed at pick-em so there was no favorite.
Home teams really dominated by going 11-3 ATS to take over a slight edge on the season at 63-60-6. That also adds up to 129 because of last week's Giants-Dolphins game in London.
Home underdogs went 3-1 against the spread this week. After hitting at 60 percent for most of the first half of the season before going 0-5 last week, home dogs now stand at 23-20 on the season. This week's plays would be on the Dolphins +3 vs. the Bills, Raiders +3 vs. the Bears, Giants +1 vs. the Cowboys, and the Chargers +3.5 vs. the Colts.
Double-digit NFL dogs is another trend I like to track, but they haven't fared so well this year at 3-8 ATS. There were no big dogs last week. This week's plays are the Rams +11.5 vs. the Saints and the 49ers +10 vs. the Seahawks. As of Tuesday morning, the Browns were +9.5 vs. the Steelers.
The NFC won the interconference battle Sunday by going 4-3 against the spread, but the AFC still leads 19-17-3 on the season. This week's only AFC play would be the Raiders +3 vs. the Bears.
This is the last week that teams have byes, so this is just for future reference, but teams playing before their byes went 3-1 ATS last week and went 18-11-1 ATS (the Giants and Dolphins aren't included because they played each other in London the week before their byes).
Teams playing after their byes are 12-10 this year. If you like that angle (which is barely profitable), the plays this week would be the Dolphins +3 vs. the Bills, Rams +11.5 vs. the Saints, Bears -3 vs. the Raiders (in contraction to two earlier trends), and Giants +1 vs. the Cowboys.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (9-0) 8-1 7-2 Packers (7-1) 6-1-1 3-4-1 Colts (7-1) 6-2 3-5 Cowboys (7-1) 6-2 6-2 Steelers (6-2) 6-2 4-4 Browns (5-3) 6-2 8-0 Bills (4-4) 6-2 3-5 Lions (6-2) 5-2-1 4-4 Buccaneers (6-3) 6-3 3-6 Giants (6-2) 5-3 3-5 Titans (6-2) 5-3 1-7 Cardinals (3-5) 5-3 4-4 Falcons (2-6) 5-3 1-7 Chiefs (4-4) 4-3-1 3-5 Jaguars (5-3) 4-4 4-4 Chargers (4-4) 4-4 5-3 Panthers (4-4) 4-4 2-6 Vikings (3-5) 3-3-2 3-4-1 Texans (4-5) 4-5 5-4 Seahawks (4-4) 3-4-1 3-5 Saints (4-4) 3-5 4-4 Eagles (3-5) 3-5 3-5 Raiders (2-6) 3-5 4-4 Redskins (5-3) 2-4-2 3-5 Dolphins (0-8) 2-4-2 5-3 Bengals (2-6) 2-5-1 5-3 Bears (3-5) 2-6 4-4 49ers (2-6) 2-6 3-5 Jets (1-8) 2-6-1 5-4 Ravens (4-4) 1-7 4-4 Broncos (3-5) 1-7 6-2 Rams (0-8) 1-7 2-6 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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