Pats-Colts the talk of town (and everywhere else)
Note: This update includes the NFL ATS Standings, which I was unable to include this morning, so I apologize to the subscribers getting it a second time and cluttering up their inbox!
It's Tuesday, and after an action-packed weekend (wall-to-wall football, World Series, Breeders' Cup, etc.) and a lot of other action coming this week (including NBA season opening), it's amazing that all every one seems to want to talk about is Sunday's matchup between the Patriots and Colts. The media machine has already reached a frenzy and it looks like it's going to be the most hyped regular-season game that any of us has ever seen.
A few weeks ago, as reported at ViewFromVegas.com, the Patriots were posted as a 1.5-point favorite in the advance odds available at the Las Vegas Hilton, which calls its list the "Games of the Year," though this game is being given the singular title. Last week, when the Hilton regularly puts up lines on all games 12 days in advance, the line had been increased to Patriots -4. Then, both teams went out and dominated their opponents — the Colts whipping the Panthers 31-7 and the Patriots routing the Redskins 52-7.
When the Hilton posted its "opening" number at 4:30 p.m. Sunday, the oddsmakers increased the line to Pats -6. The number quickly got bet down to 5, but then got bet back to 6.
Most books in town that usually don't put up NFL odds until Monday saw the potential to garner more handle with the mega-matchup and also put up lines on Sunday night. The Palms opted by 5.5, while the Wynn and Caesars went with 5, but others went lower. The MGM Mirage properties opened the lowest at Pats -3.5, but it didn't take long for bettors to drive that to -4.5. The Station Casinos made it -4 around 6 p.m. and kept it there until just after 10 p.m. before raising it to 4.5 and then to 5 by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the Stations were dealing the highest line in town at Pats -6 while every other book had settled at 5.5, but then the line was drifting up to 6 at most books by the time this column was being updated mid-Tuesday afternoon with the Hilton, Wynn and MGM Mirage properties being the only ones to hold the line at 5.5
The over/under was looking pretty solid at 56.5 points.
NFL betting trends
The NFL universe is bigger than just the Patriots and Colts, even if it might not feel like it this week. But we move on. Despite the Pats and Colts (and Chargers) winning and covering as big favorites (and cutting into the sports books' profits here as the public continues to back those teams, and tie them in parlays), favorites went just 7-6 against the spread in Week 8. For the year, underdogs still hold a 59-51-6 edge (53.6 percent after tossing out the pushes), though that is down considerably from when dogs were hitting better than 60 percent through the first four weeks of the season.
* Home-field advantage was really non-existent this past weekend (and I'm not just talking about their not being a "home" team in the Giants-Dolphins game held in London, which will make the favorite-dog and home-road stats not match in total number of games). Road teams went 10-2 against the spread in Week 8 and actually have covered more games this season at 57-52-6.
* Home underdogs took it on the chin this past week as they went 0-5 both straight-up and against the spread. For the years, they're now barely over .500 at 20-19 ATS. If you think they'll bark again, this week's plays would be Jets +3.5 vs. the Redskins, Vikings +7.5 vs. the Chargers, Colts +5.5 vs. the Patriots (there's that game again!) and the Eagles +3 vs. the Cowboys. Two other games might qualify as the Bengals-Bills games opened with the Bills as a slight home favorite but some books have moved to make the Bengals favored on the road, and the Seahawks-Browns game also opened as high as Browns -2.5 but it's down to 1 at most books and could also see a flip of favorites.
* Double-digit dogs continue to struggle as they went 1-2 last week and are a subpar 3-8 this season (of course, this has a lot to do with the Patriots being undefeated against the spread with four of those being double-digit numbers. No spreads are double digits this week (partly because the Pats and Colts are facing each other), though the Steelers are -9 vs. the Ravens on Monday night.
* The AFC really showed its dominance this past weekend as AFC teams went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in interconference games. For the year, the AFC is 18-14 SU and 16-13-3 ATS. This week's AFC plays would be the Jets +3.5 vs. the Redskins, the Chiefs -2.5 vs. the Packers, the Titans -4 vs. the Panthers, the Jaguars +3.5 vs. the Saints, the Broncos +3 vs. the Lions, the Chargers -7.5 vs. the Vikings, the Browns -1 vs. the Seahawks.
* It's become more and more clear that the AFC is much better than the NFC, especially with the teams at the top, but it's still amazing that the line for the Super Bowl was AFC -11.5 just a week ago and now it's all the way up to -16.5.
* Teams coming off their bye weeks went 3-1 ATS last week and are 10-6 (62.5 percent) on the year. This week's teams coming off their byes are the Cardinals +3.5 vs. the Buccaneers, Falcons -3 vs. the 49ers, Cowboys -3 vs. the Eagles, Chiefs -2.5 vs. the Packers, Seahawks +1 vs. the Browns and Ravens +9 vs. the Steelers.
NOTE: The NFL ATS Standings have been added to the bottom of this file. The Patriots are still the only undefeated team against the spread, while the Rams have the worst spread record at 1-7. The Browns are 7-0 with the over while the Titans and Falcons are the top under teams at 6-1.
Sports book notes
The Red Sox completed their World Series sweep Sunday night. It was a mixed result for sports books who were happy with the Boston victory as it saved them from having to pay out some big future-book tickets on the Rockies, who were as high as 300-1 after looking like an also-ran earlier in the year, but were also disappointed in the handle lost from the series not going the distance or having any drama at all to drive business. If you need a baseball betting fix, the Las Vegas Hilton has already posted its odds for the 2008 World Series. The Red Sox and the Yankees are the co-favorites at 6-1, followed by the Tigers and Indians at 10-1, the Angels, Phillies, Mets and Cubs at 12-1, and the Twins at 15-1, before another dropoff to the Rockies, Padres, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Brewers and Braves at 20-1.
* Jimmie Johnson won the Pep Boys 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway as the 3-1 favorite at Station Casinos. It was his second Nextel Cup victory in a row and moved him closer to teammate Jeff Gordon in the Chase for the Cup standings. In this upcoming Sunday's Dickie's 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, Johnson and Gordon are the co-favorites at 5-1, with Tony Stewart at 7-1 and Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch both at 10-1. In the season-long points race, Stations has Gordon at 5-7 and Johnson at 11-10. Stewart is a distant third choice at 8-1.
* The NBA season starts Tuesday night. The defending champion Spurs are the 9-2 co-favorites along with the Mavericks and Suns (all Western Conference teams), with the Rockets right behind at 5-1 and the lowest odds on any Eastern teams being the Celtics (with a revamped roster), the Cavaliers, the Pistons and the Bulls all at 12-1. The Heat are 15-1. The over/under season win total of the Lakers, which opened at 43.5 at the Hilton, has plummeted to 41.5 as wise guys have pounded the under amidst the speculation that Kobe Bryant might be traded. The Mavericks and Suns have the highest total at 56.6 while the Spurs are 55.
It's Tuesday, and after an action-packed weekend (wall-to-wall football, World Series, Breeders' Cup, etc.) and a lot of other action coming this week (including NBA season opening), it's amazing that all every one seems to want to talk about is Sunday's matchup between the Patriots and Colts. The media machine has already reached a frenzy and it looks like it's going to be the most hyped regular-season game that any of us has ever seen.
A few weeks ago, as reported at ViewFromVegas.com, the Patriots were posted as a 1.5-point favorite in the advance odds available at the Las Vegas Hilton, which calls its list the "Games of the Year," though this game is being given the singular title. Last week, when the Hilton regularly puts up lines on all games 12 days in advance, the line had been increased to Patriots -4. Then, both teams went out and dominated their opponents — the Colts whipping the Panthers 31-7 and the Patriots routing the Redskins 52-7.
When the Hilton posted its "opening" number at 4:30 p.m. Sunday, the oddsmakers increased the line to Pats -6. The number quickly got bet down to 5, but then got bet back to 6.
Most books in town that usually don't put up NFL odds until Monday saw the potential to garner more handle with the mega-matchup and also put up lines on Sunday night. The Palms opted by 5.5, while the Wynn and Caesars went with 5, but others went lower. The MGM Mirage properties opened the lowest at Pats -3.5, but it didn't take long for bettors to drive that to -4.5. The Station Casinos made it -4 around 6 p.m. and kept it there until just after 10 p.m. before raising it to 4.5 and then to 5 by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the Stations were dealing the highest line in town at Pats -6 while every other book had settled at 5.5, but then the line was drifting up to 6 at most books by the time this column was being updated mid-Tuesday afternoon with the Hilton, Wynn and MGM Mirage properties being the only ones to hold the line at 5.5
The over/under was looking pretty solid at 56.5 points.
NFL betting trends
The NFL universe is bigger than just the Patriots and Colts, even if it might not feel like it this week. But we move on. Despite the Pats and Colts (and Chargers) winning and covering as big favorites (and cutting into the sports books' profits here as the public continues to back those teams, and tie them in parlays), favorites went just 7-6 against the spread in Week 8. For the year, underdogs still hold a 59-51-6 edge (53.6 percent after tossing out the pushes), though that is down considerably from when dogs were hitting better than 60 percent through the first four weeks of the season.
* Home-field advantage was really non-existent this past weekend (and I'm not just talking about their not being a "home" team in the Giants-Dolphins game held in London, which will make the favorite-dog and home-road stats not match in total number of games). Road teams went 10-2 against the spread in Week 8 and actually have covered more games this season at 57-52-6.
* Home underdogs took it on the chin this past week as they went 0-5 both straight-up and against the spread. For the years, they're now barely over .500 at 20-19 ATS. If you think they'll bark again, this week's plays would be Jets +3.5 vs. the Redskins, Vikings +7.5 vs. the Chargers, Colts +5.5 vs. the Patriots (there's that game again!) and the Eagles +3 vs. the Cowboys. Two other games might qualify as the Bengals-Bills games opened with the Bills as a slight home favorite but some books have moved to make the Bengals favored on the road, and the Seahawks-Browns game also opened as high as Browns -2.5 but it's down to 1 at most books and could also see a flip of favorites.
* Double-digit dogs continue to struggle as they went 1-2 last week and are a subpar 3-8 this season (of course, this has a lot to do with the Patriots being undefeated against the spread with four of those being double-digit numbers. No spreads are double digits this week (partly because the Pats and Colts are facing each other), though the Steelers are -9 vs. the Ravens on Monday night.
* The AFC really showed its dominance this past weekend as AFC teams went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in interconference games. For the year, the AFC is 18-14 SU and 16-13-3 ATS. This week's AFC plays would be the Jets +3.5 vs. the Redskins, the Chiefs -2.5 vs. the Packers, the Titans -4 vs. the Panthers, the Jaguars +3.5 vs. the Saints, the Broncos +3 vs. the Lions, the Chargers -7.5 vs. the Vikings, the Browns -1 vs. the Seahawks.
* It's become more and more clear that the AFC is much better than the NFC, especially with the teams at the top, but it's still amazing that the line for the Super Bowl was AFC -11.5 just a week ago and now it's all the way up to -16.5.
* Teams coming off their bye weeks went 3-1 ATS last week and are 10-6 (62.5 percent) on the year. This week's teams coming off their byes are the Cardinals +3.5 vs. the Buccaneers, Falcons -3 vs. the 49ers, Cowboys -3 vs. the Eagles, Chiefs -2.5 vs. the Packers, Seahawks +1 vs. the Browns and Ravens +9 vs. the Steelers.
NOTE: The NFL ATS Standings have been added to the bottom of this file. The Patriots are still the only undefeated team against the spread, while the Rams have the worst spread record at 1-7. The Browns are 7-0 with the over while the Titans and Falcons are the top under teams at 6-1.
Sports book notes
The Red Sox completed their World Series sweep Sunday night. It was a mixed result for sports books who were happy with the Boston victory as it saved them from having to pay out some big future-book tickets on the Rockies, who were as high as 300-1 after looking like an also-ran earlier in the year, but were also disappointed in the handle lost from the series not going the distance or having any drama at all to drive business. If you need a baseball betting fix, the Las Vegas Hilton has already posted its odds for the 2008 World Series. The Red Sox and the Yankees are the co-favorites at 6-1, followed by the Tigers and Indians at 10-1, the Angels, Phillies, Mets and Cubs at 12-1, and the Twins at 15-1, before another dropoff to the Rockies, Padres, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Brewers and Braves at 20-1.
* Jimmie Johnson won the Pep Boys 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway as the 3-1 favorite at Station Casinos. It was his second Nextel Cup victory in a row and moved him closer to teammate Jeff Gordon in the Chase for the Cup standings. In this upcoming Sunday's Dickie's 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, Johnson and Gordon are the co-favorites at 5-1, with Tony Stewart at 7-1 and Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch both at 10-1. In the season-long points race, Stations has Gordon at 5-7 and Johnson at 11-10. Stewart is a distant third choice at 8-1.
* The NBA season starts Tuesday night. The defending champion Spurs are the 9-2 co-favorites along with the Mavericks and Suns (all Western Conference teams), with the Rockets right behind at 5-1 and the lowest odds on any Eastern teams being the Celtics (with a revamped roster), the Cavaliers, the Pistons and the Bulls all at 12-1. The Heat are 15-1. The over/under season win total of the Lakers, which opened at 43.5 at the Hilton, has plummeted to 41.5 as wise guys have pounded the under amidst the speculation that Kobe Bryant might be traded. The Mavericks and Suns have the highest total at 56.6 while the Spurs are 55.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (8-0) 8-0 7-1 Packers (6-1) 5-1-1 2-4-1 Colts (7-0) 5-2 3-4 Cowboys (6-1) 5-2 5-2 Steelers (5-2) 5-2 3-4 Browns (4-3) 5-2 7-0 Cardinals (3-4) 5-2 4-3 Bills (3-4) 5-2 2-5 Lions (5-2) 4-2-1 3-4 Chiefs (4-3) 4-2-1 2-5 Giants (6-2) 5-3 3-5 Buccaneers (5-3) 5-3 3-5
Jaguars (5-2) 4-3 3-4 Titans (5-2) 4-3 1-6 Chargers (4-3) 4-3 4-3 Panthers (4-3) 4-3 2-5 Falcons (1-6) 4-3 1-6 Seahawks (4-3) 3-3-1 2-5 Eagles (3-4) 3-4 2-5 Raiders (2-5) 3-4 4-3 Redskins (4-3) 2-3-2 2-5 Vikings (2-5) 2-3-2 2-4-1 Texans (3-5) 3-5 5-3 Bengals (2-5) 2-4-1 4-3 Dolphins (0-8) 2-4-2 5-3 Saints (3-4) 2-5 3-4 49ers (2-5) 2-5 3-4 Bears (3-5) 2-6 4-4 Ravens (4-3) 1-6 3-4 Broncos (3-4) 1-6 5-2 Jets (1-7) 1-6-1 4-4 Rams (0-8) 1-7 2-6 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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