Tuesdays with Tuley: Oct. 23
We'll start this week's Tuesdays with Tuley column with a look at the most-talked-about play of the weekend (or, more accurately, the most-talked about non-play) in the sports books here in Las Vegas.
It happened at the end of the Florida-Kentucky college football game. Florida had opened as a 6-point favorite here in town the previous Sunday, with most Gator backers having laid -6.5. during the course of the week. The line had gone to 7 at a lot of books and it played right around the number for most of the second half, which was fine for bettors who laid less than 7 on Florida and not a bad deal for those who took Kentucky +7. I, for one, was one of those who had the Gators -6 and the Wildcats +7, so I was hoping to, as they say in the business, catch a side with a win on one ticket and a push on the other. Florida took a 31-24 lead with 3:05 remaining in the third quarter, extended it to 38-14 only to see Kentucky score again to put it back on the key number at 38-31 with 3:35 left in the game.
However, Florida scored again with 1:33 remaining to go up 45-31. Kentucky mounted a late drive, and even though I was watching the game at home while getting ready for a kids' Halloween party, I heard from several people that it was crazy in the sports books as the betting result hung in the balance. Again, I was cheering for the game to land 7, but when the Wildcats came down to only having one play left, I said to a buddy of mine that even if they scored on the final play that they wouldn't kick the PAT. I was aware that, unlike the pros where the refs make a team kick the PAT if it's scored after time expires, colleges don't let the scoring team tack on the point (or points in the case of a two-point conversion) unless it impacts who wins the game. It used to be that the scoring team could go ahead with the conversion, but starting with the 2006 season, it became a rule that the refs weren't to allow it.
So, when the Wildcats did score and there was confusion as the coaches shook hands and the teams heading off the field, I knew I wasn't going to get a break. My friend thought I was some kind of clairvoyant gambling god (so at least that admiration was some small consolation).
Obviously, a lot of people aren't aware of that rule and sports book managers all over town had to deal with complaints from people who had Kentucky +7. No reports were made of complaints from Florida backers.
Sports book notes
Let's get some other non-NFL betting items out of the way:
* The Red Sox battled back to win the last three games in their best-of-seven American League Championship Series. They completed the feat on Sunday night with an 11-2 victory that was closer than the final score indicated as the Red Sox led just 3-2 in the seventh and the Indians had Kenny Lofton on second base when Franklin Gutierrez ripped a grounder down the third-base line and it seemed certain that Lofton would score to tie the game. However, the ball kicked hard off the wall and the third-base coach held up Lofton. Boston got a clutch double-play to end the inning and rolled from there. Oddsmakers here opened the Red Sox as -230 favorites in the World Series despite the Rockies having won 21 of their last 23 games. I'll defer to Ken White of Las Vegas Sports Consultants on our Oddsmakers' View page here at ViewFromVegas.com to discuss the matchup and how the odds were determined.
* Jimmie Johnson won for the third straight time at Martinsville in Sunday's Subway 500 Nextel Cup race. Johnson had been the co-favorite with teammate Jeff Gordon, who previously was Mr. Martinsville with seven career wins at the track. In fact, Johnson and Gordon have combined to win eight of the last 10 races at the short track.
* Mike Weir, who had won on the PGA Tour since 2004, won the Fry's Electronics Open in Scottsdale, Ariz., as the 20-1 third choice at the Las Vegas Hilton behind Phil Mickelson at 6-1 and Aaron Baddeley. This week, as the season continues to wind down with less-than-stellar events, Justin Leonard and Sean O'Hair are the lukewarm 15-1 co-favorites at the Ginn Sur Mer Classic in Port St. Lucie, Fla. Tim Clark, Lucas Glover and Carl Petterrsson are next at 20-1 with Heath Slocum, Robert Allenby and Steve Flesch all at 30-1.
Early opening line moves — not!
While we're looking ahead to future action, long-time readers will know I love talking about the early line moves in Vegas and seeing which way the money is flowing to know if I should bet early in the week before value is gone from a number I like (usually on a favorite), or to wait until later in the week to get the most points possible (on an underdog).
This year, the Hilton is still putting up NFL lines around 4:30 p.m. and the Stratosphere was putting up both college and pro at 4:45 p.m., with Leroy's posting college and pros later around 8 or 9 o'clock. It wasn't as nice as just a few short years ago when professional bettors could shop around from the Stardust, Hilton, Stratopshere and Imperial Palace.
Well, this past Sunday night, the Stratosphere didn't put up early openers and it's really a sad sign of the times. We all know that the offshore world drives most if not all of the early action as CRIS and Pinnacle are still the first to post odds on Sunday afternoons, but for Vegas to lose another option is pretty sad. The Hilton continues to do NFL numbers but doesn't offer colleges. Without the Stratosphere, little Leroy's is the only book putting up early college lines in town, even though those numbers are usually posted after the offshore numbers have stabilized. Nothing against Leroy's, as they have been more aggressive in recent years and do a lot of progressive things, but when people outside Nevada think of Las Vegas in gambling terms, they picture the grand sports books in the major Strip properties and not the Leroy's books. For Leroy's to be the only book to offer early college football lines, it's a little embarrassing.
Here's hoping the Stratosphere reinstates its opening lines. Or maybe someone else can step up?
NFL ATS Standings and trends
OK, now to the NFL ATS Standings. The Patriots won and covered vs. the Dolphins Sunday to remain the only unbeaten team against the spread (see chart below). The Pats opened as a 14.5-point favorite vs. the Redskins for their game this upcoming Sunday, and were promptly bet to -15 and then to -16 (on Sunday afternoon, this was the only game that was bet enough to get moved off the Hilton's opener).
The Packers were idle and are in second place with a 4-1-1 record against the spread. The Cowboys, Giants and the Cardinals (despite being 3-4 straight up) are 5-2 ATS.
The Ravens and Rams are at the bottom of the barrel at 1-6 (note: the Ravens' only cover was vs. the Rams in Week 6). The Rams are 3-point home underdogs to the Browns this Sunday, while the Ravens are on a bye week. The Broncos got off the schnied with their upset win over the Steelers, but are still 1-5 ATS along with Saints and Jets.
* The last column is each team's over/under mark, and though they're not listed in order, we can see that the Browns are the only perfect team with the over at 6-0 (they were idle last week). This week, the Browns have a total of 43.5 in that game against the Rams. The Patriots are 6-1 and have a total of 48 vs. the Redskins. Other top over teams are the Broncos at 5-1, and the Cowboys, Texans and Dolphins are at 5-2.
* Reading the over/under records in reverse, the Titans and Redskins, who were both 5-0 with the under heading into last wee, went over and are 5-1 overall with the under giving the top spot to the Rams at 6-1 with the under. The Rams have a total of (conflicting trends alert!!!!!) 48 vs. the Browns this week. The Titans have a total of 41 vs. the Raiders while the Redskins have a total of (conflicting trends alert!!!) 48 vs. the Patriots. Two other teams with only one over are the Eagles at 5-1 with the under and the Vikings at 4-1-1.
League-wide betting trends
It happened at the end of the Florida-Kentucky college football game. Florida had opened as a 6-point favorite here in town the previous Sunday, with most Gator backers having laid -6.5. during the course of the week. The line had gone to 7 at a lot of books and it played right around the number for most of the second half, which was fine for bettors who laid less than 7 on Florida and not a bad deal for those who took Kentucky +7. I, for one, was one of those who had the Gators -6 and the Wildcats +7, so I was hoping to, as they say in the business, catch a side with a win on one ticket and a push on the other. Florida took a 31-24 lead with 3:05 remaining in the third quarter, extended it to 38-14 only to see Kentucky score again to put it back on the key number at 38-31 with 3:35 left in the game.
However, Florida scored again with 1:33 remaining to go up 45-31. Kentucky mounted a late drive, and even though I was watching the game at home while getting ready for a kids' Halloween party, I heard from several people that it was crazy in the sports books as the betting result hung in the balance. Again, I was cheering for the game to land 7, but when the Wildcats came down to only having one play left, I said to a buddy of mine that even if they scored on the final play that they wouldn't kick the PAT. I was aware that, unlike the pros where the refs make a team kick the PAT if it's scored after time expires, colleges don't let the scoring team tack on the point (or points in the case of a two-point conversion) unless it impacts who wins the game. It used to be that the scoring team could go ahead with the conversion, but starting with the 2006 season, it became a rule that the refs weren't to allow it.
So, when the Wildcats did score and there was confusion as the coaches shook hands and the teams heading off the field, I knew I wasn't going to get a break. My friend thought I was some kind of clairvoyant gambling god (so at least that admiration was some small consolation).
Obviously, a lot of people aren't aware of that rule and sports book managers all over town had to deal with complaints from people who had Kentucky +7. No reports were made of complaints from Florida backers.
Sports book notes
Let's get some other non-NFL betting items out of the way:
* The Red Sox battled back to win the last three games in their best-of-seven American League Championship Series. They completed the feat on Sunday night with an 11-2 victory that was closer than the final score indicated as the Red Sox led just 3-2 in the seventh and the Indians had Kenny Lofton on second base when Franklin Gutierrez ripped a grounder down the third-base line and it seemed certain that Lofton would score to tie the game. However, the ball kicked hard off the wall and the third-base coach held up Lofton. Boston got a clutch double-play to end the inning and rolled from there. Oddsmakers here opened the Red Sox as -230 favorites in the World Series despite the Rockies having won 21 of their last 23 games. I'll defer to Ken White of Las Vegas Sports Consultants on our Oddsmakers' View page here at ViewFromVegas.com to discuss the matchup and how the odds were determined.
* Jimmie Johnson won for the third straight time at Martinsville in Sunday's Subway 500 Nextel Cup race. Johnson had been the co-favorite with teammate Jeff Gordon, who previously was Mr. Martinsville with seven career wins at the track. In fact, Johnson and Gordon have combined to win eight of the last 10 races at the short track.
* Mike Weir, who had won on the PGA Tour since 2004, won the Fry's Electronics Open in Scottsdale, Ariz., as the 20-1 third choice at the Las Vegas Hilton behind Phil Mickelson at 6-1 and Aaron Baddeley. This week, as the season continues to wind down with less-than-stellar events, Justin Leonard and Sean O'Hair are the lukewarm 15-1 co-favorites at the Ginn Sur Mer Classic in Port St. Lucie, Fla. Tim Clark, Lucas Glover and Carl Petterrsson are next at 20-1 with Heath Slocum, Robert Allenby and Steve Flesch all at 30-1.
Early opening line moves — not!
While we're looking ahead to future action, long-time readers will know I love talking about the early line moves in Vegas and seeing which way the money is flowing to know if I should bet early in the week before value is gone from a number I like (usually on a favorite), or to wait until later in the week to get the most points possible (on an underdog).
This year, the Hilton is still putting up NFL lines around 4:30 p.m. and the Stratosphere was putting up both college and pro at 4:45 p.m., with Leroy's posting college and pros later around 8 or 9 o'clock. It wasn't as nice as just a few short years ago when professional bettors could shop around from the Stardust, Hilton, Stratopshere and Imperial Palace.
Well, this past Sunday night, the Stratosphere didn't put up early openers and it's really a sad sign of the times. We all know that the offshore world drives most if not all of the early action as CRIS and Pinnacle are still the first to post odds on Sunday afternoons, but for Vegas to lose another option is pretty sad. The Hilton continues to do NFL numbers but doesn't offer colleges. Without the Stratosphere, little Leroy's is the only book putting up early college lines in town, even though those numbers are usually posted after the offshore numbers have stabilized. Nothing against Leroy's, as they have been more aggressive in recent years and do a lot of progressive things, but when people outside Nevada think of Las Vegas in gambling terms, they picture the grand sports books in the major Strip properties and not the Leroy's books. For Leroy's to be the only book to offer early college football lines, it's a little embarrassing.
Here's hoping the Stratosphere reinstates its opening lines. Or maybe someone else can step up?
NFL ATS Standings and trends
OK, now to the NFL ATS Standings. The Patriots won and covered vs. the Dolphins Sunday to remain the only unbeaten team against the spread (see chart below). The Pats opened as a 14.5-point favorite vs. the Redskins for their game this upcoming Sunday, and were promptly bet to -15 and then to -16 (on Sunday afternoon, this was the only game that was bet enough to get moved off the Hilton's opener).
The Packers were idle and are in second place with a 4-1-1 record against the spread. The Cowboys, Giants and the Cardinals (despite being 3-4 straight up) are 5-2 ATS.
The Ravens and Rams are at the bottom of the barrel at 1-6 (note: the Ravens' only cover was vs. the Rams in Week 6). The Rams are 3-point home underdogs to the Browns this Sunday, while the Ravens are on a bye week. The Broncos got off the schnied with their upset win over the Steelers, but are still 1-5 ATS along with Saints and Jets.
* The last column is each team's over/under mark, and though they're not listed in order, we can see that the Browns are the only perfect team with the over at 6-0 (they were idle last week). This week, the Browns have a total of 43.5 in that game against the Rams. The Patriots are 6-1 and have a total of 48 vs. the Redskins. Other top over teams are the Broncos at 5-1, and the Cowboys, Texans and Dolphins are at 5-2.
* Reading the over/under records in reverse, the Titans and Redskins, who were both 5-0 with the under heading into last wee, went over and are 5-1 overall with the under giving the top spot to the Rams at 6-1 with the under. The Rams have a total of (conflicting trends alert!!!!!) 48 vs. the Browns this week. The Titans have a total of 41 vs. the Raiders while the Redskins have a total of (conflicting trends alert!!!) 48 vs. the Patriots. Two other teams with only one over are the Eagles at 5-1 with the under and the Vikings at 4-1-1.
League-wide betting trends
So much for the trends of individual teams, here's a look at the trends across the whole league.
* In Week 7, underdogs went 7-7 against the spread yet still lead on the season at 53-44-6 (55.8 percent after tossing out pushes).
* Home teams also split out at 7-7 ATS and hold a narrow lead at 50-47-6.
* The subset of home underdogs, a personal favorite of mine, went 2-2 ATS this past week to drop below 60 percent for the first time since Week 1 as they are now 20-14 on the season (58.8 percent). This week's home dogs are
the Rams +3 vs. the Browns, Panthers +6.5 vs. the Colts, the Vikings +1 vs. the Eagles, the Bengals +3.5 vs. the Bengals and the 49ers +3 vs. the Saints.
* Double-digit dogs are usually profitable, but they are really underperforming this year, going 0-1 last week (with the Dolphins failing to cover +15.5 vs. the Patriots) and are 2-6 (25 percent) on the year. This weeks' only big dog is the Redskins +16 vs. the Patriots, unless the Giants-Dolphins or Chargers-Texans lines go to 10. As of Tuesday morning they were both at 9.5.
* There were no interconference games last week, though it's interesting to note that although everyone assumes th AFC is much better than the NFC (and the AFC is 14-12 straight-up so far), the NFC actually leads the ATS battle at 12-11-3. There are six interconference games this week.
* I pointed out last week that teams heading into their bye week were 10-7-1 ATS. Well, they went 5-1 against the spread this past Sunday and are 12-8-1 (60 percent on the year). If you're looking to play those teams before their bye week, you'd have the Bears -4 vs. the Lions and Rams +3 vs. the Browns (we won't count the Giants and Dolphins as they play each other).
* Teams playing after their bye were 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread last week to improve to 7-5 ATS (again, not counting the Broncos-Steelers game as they were both idle the prior week). Those teams this week are the Panthers +6.5 vs. the Colts, Browns -3 vs. the Rams (conflicting with the above), Packers +3 vs. the Broncos and Chargers -9.5 vs. the Texans.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (7-0) 7-0 6-1 Packers (5-1) 4-1-1 2-3-1 Cowboys (6-1) 5-2 5-2 Giants (5-2) 5-2 3-4 Cardinals (3-4) 5-2 4-3 Colts (6-0) 4-2 3-3 Steelers (4-2) 4-2 3-3 Panthers (4-2) 4-2 2-4 Titans (4-2) 4-2 1-5 Chiefs (4-3) 4-2-1 2-5 Browns (3-3) 4-2 6-0 Bills (2-4) 4-2 2-4 Buccaneers (4-3) 4-3 2-5 Falcons (1-6) 4-3 1-6 Lions (4-2) 3-2-1 3-3 Redskins (4-2) 2-2-2 1-5 Vikings (2-4) 2-2-2 1-4-1 Jaguars (4-2) 3-3 2-4 Seahawks (4-3) 3-3-1 2-5 Chargers (3-3) 3-3 4-2 Texans (3-4) 3-4 5-2 Raiders (2-4) 2-4 4-2 49ers (2-4) 2-4 2-4 Eagles (2-4) 2-4 1-5 Bengals (2-4) 2-3-1 4-2 Bears (3-4) 2-4 4-3 Dolphins (0-7) 1-4-2 5-2 Saints (2-4) 1-5 2-4 Broncos (3-3) 1-5 5-1 Jets (1-6) 1-5-1 4-3 Ravens (4-3) 1-6 3-4 Rams (0-7) 1-6 1-6 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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