Debut of "Tuesdays with Tuley"
Since the start of this site in July, I've written a "Tuley the Journalist" column under the "Monday Morning Report" each Monday, mostly recapping the weekend's action and looking ahead to the next week. Well, in addition to having a cold on Monday morning, I also didn't have much to report in the way of line moves for this upcoming weekend's football games as the opening lines were tighter than usual.
I was also thinking that the Rockies could wrap up the NL title on Monday night and I would have wanted to include that in a weekend wrapup. And then this led me to thinking that one of the things I don't like about doing a Monday Morning Report during football season is that the betting results don't include Monday Night Football, which is a make-or-break game for a lot of bettors/bookmakers, so I always feel like that aspect of the column is usually incomplete.
I mulled most of this over throughout the day...and having writer's block heightened by cold medication made my procrastinating worse. After the Rockies completed their sweep of the Diamondbacks, I took the dog for a walk and was brainstorming about going through with my thought about moving the weekend wrap to Tuesdays, which would also help on holiday weekends that end with a lot of games on Monday, plus during football season it would make all the betting stats and trends up to date. In addition, it would free me up on Sundays/Mondays to do other stories and blogs when they warranted it without worrying about doing a recap of everything.
I tried to come up with a name. "Tuesday Morning Quarterback." "Tuesday Thoughts." "Weekend Wrap." I then thought I should try and get my name in there, and then it hit me like a ton of proverbial bricks: "Tuesdays With Tuley."
Seems so natural. I can't believe I didn't come up with it sooner. It still will be a look at the weekends results, with a look toward what was learned and how we can use those lessons in upcoming games. It also gives a home where everyone will know where to find the NFL ATS Standings with MNF included and I'll run down the betting trends from around the league and any other thoughts on other sports.
And it's a much catchier title.
So, here we go:
* The Patriots remained the only undefeated team against the spread with their 48-27 rout of the Cowboys as a 5.5-point favorite. New England is a 17-point favorite this upcoming Sunday at Miami. The line actually opened 13.5 at the Stratosphere and 14 at the Hilton but it has been steamed up to 17. The Packers and Steelers are next at 4-1-1 and 4-1, respectively. The Packers are idle this week while the Steelers are 3.5-point favorites at Denver.
* At the bottom of the ledger as those same Broncos, who are the only team without a cover at 0-5 against the spread. Bettors have to decide if they think these teams will continue to perform at their previous levels, or if the point spread has been adjusted enough to even it out (for the record, I'll be taking the Broncos plus the points). The Saints and Ravens covered their first game last week, though in Baltimore's case it was against the Rams who are also 1-5 ATS. The Bears and Jets also continue to lose money for backers.
* The last column is each team's over/under mark, and though they're not listed in order, we can see that the Browns are the only perfect team with the over at 6-0 and are idle this week, while the Patriots and Cowboys are both 5-1 and the Broncos are 4-1.
* Reading the over/under records in reverse, the Titans and Redskins are both 5-0 with the under. The Titans play the Texans with a total that is off the board as of Tuesday morning and the Redskins host the Cardinals with a total of 36.5, obviously shaded under the key number of 37 with the Redskins' early-season tendency. The Rams and Falcons are 5-1 with the under.
* I'm still working on formatting the chart in this blog and will soon add each team's streaks against the spread and with over/unders.
League-wide betting trends
So much for the trends of individual teams, here's a look at the trends across the whole league.
* In Week 6, favorites went 8-4-1 against the spread, but underdogs still have a sizable edge this season at 46-37-6 (55.4 percent after tossing out pushes).
* Home teams split out at 6-6-1 ATS and hold a narrow lead at 43-40-6.
* The subset of home underdogs, a personal favorite of mine that I wish I had played even more this season than I have (especially with my published plays), had its first sub .500 week of the year at 1-3 but is still 18-12 ATS (60 percent) with an impressive 12 of those being outright upsets. This week's home underdogs are the Bills +3.5 vs. the Ravens, Dolphins +17 vs. the Patriots, Broncos +3.5 vs. the Steelers and Jaguars +3 vs. the Colts. I'm sure to have bets on all four of those.
* Double-digit dogs are usually profitable, but they are only 2-5 ATS heading into this weekend after not having any last week. Again, the Dolphins are +17 vs. the Patriots. The Vikings look like the only other possible play as that line sits at +9.5 vs. the Cowboys.
* The NFC has been holding its own in interconfernce play, going 2-2 ATS last week and leading 12-11-3 on the year. Surprisingly, there are no interconference games this week. The line for the Super Bowl has been around AFC -8 or -8.5 the past few weeks, but with the Patriots dismantling the Cowboys, the team many consider to be the NFC's only hope, the Las Vegas Hilton moved the line to AFC -10.5 on Sunday night.
* A lot of people bet on teams off their bye week on the assumption they'll be healthy and refocused. However, teams after their bye are just 4-4 against the spread. Meanwhile, teams before their bye went 3-0-1 last week and improved to 10-7-1 ATS. Teams with a bye in Week 8 are the Cardinals +7.5 vs. the Redskins, Falcons +9 vs. the Saints, Ravens -3 vs. the Bills, Cowboys -9.5 vs. the Vikings, Chiefs +3 vs. the Raiders, and Seahawks -8.5 vs. the Rams.
Other sorts of sports
As mentioned at the top of the column, the Rockies completed their sweep of the Diamondbacks in the NLCS on Monday night. What seemed a little surprising heading into the series, despite the Rockies having won 17 of their previous 18 games, was that the Rockies were a -130 favorite despite the D-backs having home-field advantage. But it didn't work out that way as the Rockies swept the two in Phoenix last Thursday and Friday and then returned home to complete the broom job on Sunday and Monday. A price of 7-1 could have been had on a Colorado sweep at Caesars Palace. However, as I've written many times, when looking to ride a team in consecutive games its almost always better to parlay each game individually on the money line. In this case, the four-game ML parlay would have been right around 10-1 based on price of +120, -105, -150 and -170.
* Jeff Gordon won the Bank of America 500 Nextel Cup race on Saturday under the lights at Lowe's Motor Speedway in Charlotte. He was the 7-1 co-third choice at Station Casinos and is the series points championship is his to lose as he's the 5-7 favorite at Stations with teammate Jimmie Johnson at 11-10. There's a huge dropoff to the next contender as Tony Stewart is 8-1. This Saturday, Gordon and Johnson are the co-favorites at 4-1 to win the Subway 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
* Last Saturday night, Juan Diaz dominated Julio Diaz in a lightweight title bout in Hoffman Estates, Ill., to add the IBF belts to his collection which already included the WBA and WBO hardware. Diaz, er, I mean Juan was pummeling Julio and the latter's corner didn't let him come out for the ninth round, stopping the fight. Juan was a -450 favorite, but the surprise was that the fight didn't go the distance as the "will go 12 rounds" prop was priced at -250 with the "will not go 12 rounds" at +200.
* In a heavyweight title fight in Russia, Evander Holyfield was trying to win a title for the fifth time, but he might have finally been sent into (permanent) retirement as he lost a unanimous decision to Sultan Ibragimov, who was a solid -500 favorite.
* In locals sports action, George McNeill won his first PGA event at the Frys.com Open at TPC Summerlin.He was so much of an unknown that he wasn't included in the list of 49 golfers available at the Las Vegas Hilton and instead of part of the "field of all others" wager at 2-1. Other sports books that had fewer golfers listed generally had the field around even money.
I was also thinking that the Rockies could wrap up the NL title on Monday night and I would have wanted to include that in a weekend wrapup. And then this led me to thinking that one of the things I don't like about doing a Monday Morning Report during football season is that the betting results don't include Monday Night Football, which is a make-or-break game for a lot of bettors/bookmakers, so I always feel like that aspect of the column is usually incomplete.
I mulled most of this over throughout the day...and having writer's block heightened by cold medication made my procrastinating worse. After the Rockies completed their sweep of the Diamondbacks, I took the dog for a walk and was brainstorming about going through with my thought about moving the weekend wrap to Tuesdays, which would also help on holiday weekends that end with a lot of games on Monday, plus during football season it would make all the betting stats and trends up to date. In addition, it would free me up on Sundays/Mondays to do other stories and blogs when they warranted it without worrying about doing a recap of everything.
I tried to come up with a name. "Tuesday Morning Quarterback." "Tuesday Thoughts." "Weekend Wrap." I then thought I should try and get my name in there, and then it hit me like a ton of proverbial bricks: "Tuesdays With Tuley."
Seems so natural. I can't believe I didn't come up with it sooner. It still will be a look at the weekends results, with a look toward what was learned and how we can use those lessons in upcoming games. It also gives a home where everyone will know where to find the NFL ATS Standings with MNF included and I'll run down the betting trends from around the league and any other thoughts on other sports.
And it's a much catchier title.
So, here we go:
|
NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (6-0) 6-0 5-1 Packers (5-1) 4-1-1 2-3-1 Steelers (4-1) 4-1 2-3 Cowboys (5-1) 4-2 5-1 Buccaneers (4-2) 4-2 2-4 Giants (4-2) 4-2 2-4 Panthers (4-2) 4-2 2-4 Browns (3-3) 4-2 6-0 Cardinals (3-3) 4-2 3-3 Redskins (3-2) 2-1-2 0-5 Vikings (2-3) 2-1-2 1-3-1 Colts (5-0) 3-2 3-2 Jaguars (4-1) 3-2 2-3 Titans (3-2) 3-2 0-5 Chiefs (3-3) 3-2-1 2-4 Bills (1-4) 3-2 2-3 Lions (3-2) 2-2-1 3-2 Chargers (3-3) 3-3 4-2 Texans (3-3) 3-3 4-2 Falcons (1-5) 3-3 1-5 Seahawks (3-3) 2-3-1 2-4 Raiders (2-3) 2-3 4-1 49ers (2-3) 2-3 1-4 Eagles (2-3) 2-3 1-4 Bengals (1-4) 1-3-1 3-2 Dolphins (0-6) 1-3-2 4-2 Bears (2-4) 1-4 4-2 Saints (1-4) 1-4 2-3 Jets (1-5) 1-4-1 3-3 Ravens (4-2) 1-5 3-3 Rams (0-6) 1-5 1-5 Broncos (2-3) 0-5 4-1 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
* The Patriots remained the only undefeated team against the spread with their 48-27 rout of the Cowboys as a 5.5-point favorite. New England is a 17-point favorite this upcoming Sunday at Miami. The line actually opened 13.5 at the Stratosphere and 14 at the Hilton but it has been steamed up to 17. The Packers and Steelers are next at 4-1-1 and 4-1, respectively. The Packers are idle this week while the Steelers are 3.5-point favorites at Denver.
* At the bottom of the ledger as those same Broncos, who are the only team without a cover at 0-5 against the spread. Bettors have to decide if they think these teams will continue to perform at their previous levels, or if the point spread has been adjusted enough to even it out (for the record, I'll be taking the Broncos plus the points). The Saints and Ravens covered their first game last week, though in Baltimore's case it was against the Rams who are also 1-5 ATS. The Bears and Jets also continue to lose money for backers.
* The last column is each team's over/under mark, and though they're not listed in order, we can see that the Browns are the only perfect team with the over at 6-0 and are idle this week, while the Patriots and Cowboys are both 5-1 and the Broncos are 4-1.
* Reading the over/under records in reverse, the Titans and Redskins are both 5-0 with the under. The Titans play the Texans with a total that is off the board as of Tuesday morning and the Redskins host the Cardinals with a total of 36.5, obviously shaded under the key number of 37 with the Redskins' early-season tendency. The Rams and Falcons are 5-1 with the under.
* I'm still working on formatting the chart in this blog and will soon add each team's streaks against the spread and with over/unders.
League-wide betting trends
So much for the trends of individual teams, here's a look at the trends across the whole league.
* In Week 6, favorites went 8-4-1 against the spread, but underdogs still have a sizable edge this season at 46-37-6 (55.4 percent after tossing out pushes).
* Home teams split out at 6-6-1 ATS and hold a narrow lead at 43-40-6.
* The subset of home underdogs, a personal favorite of mine that I wish I had played even more this season than I have (especially with my published plays), had its first sub .500 week of the year at 1-3 but is still 18-12 ATS (60 percent) with an impressive 12 of those being outright upsets. This week's home underdogs are the Bills +3.5 vs. the Ravens, Dolphins +17 vs. the Patriots, Broncos +3.5 vs. the Steelers and Jaguars +3 vs. the Colts. I'm sure to have bets on all four of those.
* Double-digit dogs are usually profitable, but they are only 2-5 ATS heading into this weekend after not having any last week. Again, the Dolphins are +17 vs. the Patriots. The Vikings look like the only other possible play as that line sits at +9.5 vs. the Cowboys.
* The NFC has been holding its own in interconfernce play, going 2-2 ATS last week and leading 12-11-3 on the year. Surprisingly, there are no interconference games this week. The line for the Super Bowl has been around AFC -8 or -8.5 the past few weeks, but with the Patriots dismantling the Cowboys, the team many consider to be the NFC's only hope, the Las Vegas Hilton moved the line to AFC -10.5 on Sunday night.
* A lot of people bet on teams off their bye week on the assumption they'll be healthy and refocused. However, teams after their bye are just 4-4 against the spread. Meanwhile, teams before their bye went 3-0-1 last week and improved to 10-7-1 ATS. Teams with a bye in Week 8 are the Cardinals +7.5 vs. the Redskins, Falcons +9 vs. the Saints, Ravens -3 vs. the Bills, Cowboys -9.5 vs. the Vikings, Chiefs +3 vs. the Raiders, and Seahawks -8.5 vs. the Rams.
Other sorts of sports
As mentioned at the top of the column, the Rockies completed their sweep of the Diamondbacks in the NLCS on Monday night. What seemed a little surprising heading into the series, despite the Rockies having won 17 of their previous 18 games, was that the Rockies were a -130 favorite despite the D-backs having home-field advantage. But it didn't work out that way as the Rockies swept the two in Phoenix last Thursday and Friday and then returned home to complete the broom job on Sunday and Monday. A price of 7-1 could have been had on a Colorado sweep at Caesars Palace. However, as I've written many times, when looking to ride a team in consecutive games its almost always better to parlay each game individually on the money line. In this case, the four-game ML parlay would have been right around 10-1 based on price of +120, -105, -150 and -170.
* Jeff Gordon won the Bank of America 500 Nextel Cup race on Saturday under the lights at Lowe's Motor Speedway in Charlotte. He was the 7-1 co-third choice at Station Casinos and is the series points championship is his to lose as he's the 5-7 favorite at Stations with teammate Jimmie Johnson at 11-10. There's a huge dropoff to the next contender as Tony Stewart is 8-1. This Saturday, Gordon and Johnson are the co-favorites at 4-1 to win the Subway 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
* Last Saturday night, Juan Diaz dominated Julio Diaz in a lightweight title bout in Hoffman Estates, Ill., to add the IBF belts to his collection which already included the WBA and WBO hardware. Diaz, er, I mean Juan was pummeling Julio and the latter's corner didn't let him come out for the ninth round, stopping the fight. Juan was a -450 favorite, but the surprise was that the fight didn't go the distance as the "will go 12 rounds" prop was priced at -250 with the "will not go 12 rounds" at +200.
* In a heavyweight title fight in Russia, Evander Holyfield was trying to win a title for the fifth time, but he might have finally been sent into (permanent) retirement as he lost a unanimous decision to Sultan Ibragimov, who was a solid -500 favorite.
* In locals sports action, George McNeill won his first PGA event at the Frys.com Open at TPC Summerlin.He was so much of an unknown that he wasn't included in the list of 49 golfers available at the Las Vegas Hilton and instead of part of the "field of all others" wager at 2-1. Other sports books that had fewer golfers listed generally had the field around even money.
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