Another upsetting weekend
My head is spinning from all the sports action in every direction (football, playoff baseball, boxing, the Chase for the Nextel Cup, Breeders' Cup prep races, etc. . . . and no time to follow the NHL, but here's some scribblings from this reporter's notebook:
* The underdogs were coming in again this weekend, and it was also upsetting for my alter ego, Tuley the Tout, as he (or I) went 4-3 with published picks in the colleges and 2-3 in the pros even though he (or I) played a lot more games and had a pretty good weekend but wishes the documented record (and especially since other people may be playing those) was doing better.
* Stanford's upset of USC on Saturday brings up the "what was the biggest upset in college football history?" debate. It also shows how hard it is to quantify that. USC closed as a 39-point favorite at most sports books in Vegas, but at -40 at Harrah's/Caesars and the locals giant Station Casinos. However, Stanford was available at some offshore books at +41, so it's hard to say what the official closing line was (and if you do a Google search you'll find all those numbers quoted depending in the source). Most books got pretty balanced action on that game, so the upset didn't really help or hurt them (especially since no money line was available — note: the CRIS offshore book had the money line at -8000/+4000). But a lot of other steam games went down and the books had their biggest winning weekend of the year so far, and some are saying one of the best in several years. But back to the "biggest upset in college football history?" debate. Four weeks ago after Appalachian St. beat Michigan as a 31-point favorite, I wrote about several upsets that were bigger from a point-spread perspective. The top one I mentioned was UTEP knocking off BYU in 1985 as a 40-point underdog. In asking people who were betting at that time and looking up old stories on the internet (which wasn't around back then, so the research was certainly subject to revisionist history), some people claimed the BYU-UTEP line was as high as 41, while most stood by the number of 40, though the Gold Sheet lists the line as 36. Since USC was ranked No. 1 and I can verify that there were 41's out there Saturday and certainly 40's, I have no problem with people calling Stanford's win a bigger upset.
* Despite all the upsets in college football, readers will be interested to check out the Oddsmakers' Top 30 from Las Vegas Sports Consultants which still has USC rated No. 2 behind LSU, with Oklahoma, Ohio St., West Virginia and even two-loss Florida rated ahead of undefeated California. The LVSC poll ranks teams by power ratings and who would be favored on a neutral field.
* Favorites in the NFL actually went 7-6 against the spread, but one of those was the Chargers, who had an a slight underdog all week at the Broncos before being bet late to 1-point favoritism. Another favorite that covered was the Patriots, who were -16 vs. the Browns and ahead by 10 late and came up short on their last offensive drive, but then ran back a fumble for a TD to cover 34-17. Of course, dog players had their share of lucky covers, too, including the Rams, who closed +4 vs. the Cardinals and were trailing 34-23 late, but scored a TD and added the 2-point conversion to lose (but cover) 34-31. The Bears were also looking like they were going to get blown out of Lambeau Field on Sunday night, but rallied to beat the Packers 27-20. As the Pack were backed from 3- to 3.5-point favorites, that capped another winning day for the books, even though a lot of the popular public teams continued to cover (Patriots, Colts and Steelers).
* No upsets in the boxing ring, at least in the main events. On Saturday night at the Mandalay Events Center here in Las Vegas, Manny Pacquiao, a -300 favorite, won a unanimous decision over Marco Antonio Barrera in a super featherweight title fight. While Pacquiao was expected to win, the bout wasn't expected to go the distance as the over/under in the 12-round fight was set at 10 full rounds with the under favored at -130. In the WBC heavyweight title bout at Madison Square Garden in New York City, Samuel Peter, a prohibitive -900 favorite, withstood an early flurry and not one but two knockdowns at the hands of challenger Jameel McCline but ultimately won a unanimous decision. The MSG crowd booed the decision.
* Jeff Gordon, the 5-1 co-favorite along with teammate Jimmie Johnson, won the UAW-GM 500 Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway and took over the lead in the Chase for the Cup from Johnson in the process with six races to go.
* The baseball playoffs saw three sweeps in the divisional playoffs with the Rockies and Diamondbacks pulling off the feat as series underdogs in the National League. In the NLCS that starts Thursday, the Rockies (despite the D-backs having home-field advantage and being NL West champs over the wild-card Rockies) are the -125 series favorite. In the AL, the Red Sox swept the Angels, though the Yankees avoided elimination Sunday with a win over the Indians but still trail 2 games to 1. In Monday night's game, the Yankees are a -220 favorite. While the Yankees have to win the last two games to stay alive, oddsmakers obviously don't see them as dead. At the Las Vegas Hilton as of Monday morning, the Red Sox were 5-8 to win the AL with the Indians at 5-2 and the Yankees at 7-2. In adjusted World Series futures, the Red Sox are the 5-4 favorite, with the Indians at 7-2, the Rockies at 9-2, the Diamondbacks at 5-1 and the Yankees right there at 6-1.
* The underdogs were coming in again this weekend, and it was also upsetting for my alter ego, Tuley the Tout, as he (or I) went 4-3 with published picks in the colleges and 2-3 in the pros even though he (or I) played a lot more games and had a pretty good weekend but wishes the documented record (and especially since other people may be playing those) was doing better.
* Stanford's upset of USC on Saturday brings up the "what was the biggest upset in college football history?" debate. It also shows how hard it is to quantify that. USC closed as a 39-point favorite at most sports books in Vegas, but at -40 at Harrah's/Caesars and the locals giant Station Casinos. However, Stanford was available at some offshore books at +41, so it's hard to say what the official closing line was (and if you do a Google search you'll find all those numbers quoted depending in the source). Most books got pretty balanced action on that game, so the upset didn't really help or hurt them (especially since no money line was available — note: the CRIS offshore book had the money line at -8000/+4000). But a lot of other steam games went down and the books had their biggest winning weekend of the year so far, and some are saying one of the best in several years. But back to the "biggest upset in college football history?" debate. Four weeks ago after Appalachian St. beat Michigan as a 31-point favorite, I wrote about several upsets that were bigger from a point-spread perspective. The top one I mentioned was UTEP knocking off BYU in 1985 as a 40-point underdog. In asking people who were betting at that time and looking up old stories on the internet (which wasn't around back then, so the research was certainly subject to revisionist history), some people claimed the BYU-UTEP line was as high as 41, while most stood by the number of 40, though the Gold Sheet lists the line as 36. Since USC was ranked No. 1 and I can verify that there were 41's out there Saturday and certainly 40's, I have no problem with people calling Stanford's win a bigger upset.
* Despite all the upsets in college football, readers will be interested to check out the Oddsmakers' Top 30 from Las Vegas Sports Consultants which still has USC rated No. 2 behind LSU, with Oklahoma, Ohio St., West Virginia and even two-loss Florida rated ahead of undefeated California. The LVSC poll ranks teams by power ratings and who would be favored on a neutral field.
* Favorites in the NFL actually went 7-6 against the spread, but one of those was the Chargers, who had an a slight underdog all week at the Broncos before being bet late to 1-point favoritism. Another favorite that covered was the Patriots, who were -16 vs. the Browns and ahead by 10 late and came up short on their last offensive drive, but then ran back a fumble for a TD to cover 34-17. Of course, dog players had their share of lucky covers, too, including the Rams, who closed +4 vs. the Cardinals and were trailing 34-23 late, but scored a TD and added the 2-point conversion to lose (but cover) 34-31. The Bears were also looking like they were going to get blown out of Lambeau Field on Sunday night, but rallied to beat the Packers 27-20. As the Pack were backed from 3- to 3.5-point favorites, that capped another winning day for the books, even though a lot of the popular public teams continued to cover (Patriots, Colts and Steelers).
* No upsets in the boxing ring, at least in the main events. On Saturday night at the Mandalay Events Center here in Las Vegas, Manny Pacquiao, a -300 favorite, won a unanimous decision over Marco Antonio Barrera in a super featherweight title fight. While Pacquiao was expected to win, the bout wasn't expected to go the distance as the over/under in the 12-round fight was set at 10 full rounds with the under favored at -130. In the WBC heavyweight title bout at Madison Square Garden in New York City, Samuel Peter, a prohibitive -900 favorite, withstood an early flurry and not one but two knockdowns at the hands of challenger Jameel McCline but ultimately won a unanimous decision. The MSG crowd booed the decision.
* Jeff Gordon, the 5-1 co-favorite along with teammate Jimmie Johnson, won the UAW-GM 500 Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway and took over the lead in the Chase for the Cup from Johnson in the process with six races to go.
* The baseball playoffs saw three sweeps in the divisional playoffs with the Rockies and Diamondbacks pulling off the feat as series underdogs in the National League. In the NLCS that starts Thursday, the Rockies (despite the D-backs having home-field advantage and being NL West champs over the wild-card Rockies) are the -125 series favorite. In the AL, the Red Sox swept the Angels, though the Yankees avoided elimination Sunday with a win over the Indians but still trail 2 games to 1. In Monday night's game, the Yankees are a -220 favorite. While the Yankees have to win the last two games to stay alive, oddsmakers obviously don't see them as dead. At the Las Vegas Hilton as of Monday morning, the Red Sox were 5-8 to win the AL with the Indians at 5-2 and the Yankees at 7-2. In adjusted World Series futures, the Red Sox are the 5-4 favorite, with the Indians at 7-2, the Rockies at 9-2, the Diamondbacks at 5-1 and the Yankees right there at 6-1.
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