Pigskin Postmortem for Sept. 15-16
After favorites went 9-6-1 against the spread in Week 1 of the NFL, there was a lot of grumbling from Las Vegas bookmakers about the lack of parity in the NFL and how the public was cashing in on all the favorites.
However, this Sunday we saw a turnaround in the market (and then some) as underdogs covered seven of the eight early games and ended the day 11-3-1 against the spread with only the Steelers, Cowboys and Patriots covering as favorites. The Lions-Vikings game was the push as the Lions won 20-17 in overtime as a 3-point favorite
Not only did all those underdogs help the books lock up a lot of profits from the straight bets, but it also knocked out a lot of parlay action, which the public tends to string together with a lot of favorites. In addition, even though six of the favorites pulled outright upsets (Browns, Texans, 49ers, Packers, Bucs and Cardinals), there were five favorites that won their games even though they didn't cover (Colts, Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos, Bears), so the books didn't have to pay out on too many dogs on the money line. When the dogs do win outright, you'll often hear bookmakers, who are usually in a position to cheer for the underdogs against the betting public say that "too many dogs won."
The Browns' 51-45 win over the Bengals was seen as the most shocking — and that contention is supported by the fact the Browns were 7-point dawgs while the Texans were +6.5, the Bucs were dismissed at +5 with a lot of late money on the Saints, and the 49ers and Packers were around +3 — but it supported the theory that home underdogs are always to be considered in the NFL. Home dogs went 4-1 against the spread (improving to 6-3 through two weeks) with the Dolphins being the only team to not come through.
Another good barometer of how the public is faring vs. the oddsmakers is the results of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. The top two plays in that competiton were the Bengals and Saints. In all, the consensus plays went 4-10-1 with one of those wins being the Texans having a minuscule 58-57 edge in the number of times picked by the contestants.
As you can see from above, the dogs were 11-2-1 heading into the Sunday night game, but even with the favored Patriots winning and covering 38-14, the books fared well as the Chargers were a popular underdog.
Heading into Monday night's Redskins-Eagles game, underdogs are 17-12-2 against the spread in the early going. Unders are 19-2 heading into Monday night after going 8-7 on Sunday after being 11-5 on opening weekend.
* The books here also fared well Saturday as underdogs went 23-18-1 on the main betting board Saturday. In a similar barometer to the SuperContest being used in the pros, we can look to the Leroy's College Challenge and see that the top choice was Kansas, which was bet from -22 to -27 before routing Toledo 45-13, but then the next seven consensus plays all lost to show that the public was losing a lot that day, too. Over/unders, which aren't always posted on all of the games except in the major conferences, went 13-13-1.
Early line move report
You might think that with all the bettors losing money on Sunday that no one would have any to bet the opening lines for next week's action. But, actually, the professional bettors that are the ones to fire away at the first numbers to be posted actually do well when underdogs cover, so there was a lot of action Sunday evening.
Of the 16 games on next weekend's NFL schedule, the Panthers-Falcons game is the only one that hasn't moved off the opening numbers that the Las Vegas Hilton posted at 4:30 p.m. Sunday. In that game, the Panthers are a 4-point road favorite and holding steady. Every other game has moved, with the biggest change being the Jets opening as a 5-point favorite over the Dolphins and the number steadily being bet down to 3.
If you were to get a printout of the opening numbers and the current lines as of Monday morning, you would say, "Wait, there's four more games that are the same as their openers — the Chiefs -2 vs. the Vikings, the Ravens -7.5 vs. the Cardinals, the Seahawks -3.5 vs. the Bengals, and the Raiders -3.5 vs. the Browns." While that is true, all of them moved off the opener and then back again. The most extreme was the Chiefs, who opened -2, went to -2.5 and -3 EV, and then back down to 2.5 and 2 again. All of the others moved just a half-point before going back.
A more extreme reversal was in the Steelers-49ers matchup. That game opened at Steelers -7.5 at the Hilton, as well as -8 at the Stratosphere, went to 7 at both places, then back up to 7.5, 8 and 8.5 by Monday morning.
In the three Sunday games at 1:05 p.m. PDT on the Don Best schedule — Broncos-Jaguars, Seahawks-Bengals, Raiders-Browns — all have been wavering back and forth between 3 and 3.5
* When the Stratosphere was the first in town to put up lines on college games at 4:45 p.m., 10 games moved off the opening numbers with just three underdogs getting early action: Baylor from +5 to +4.5 vs. Buffalo (and which has since gone down to 4 most places and as low as 3.5 at the Hilton and Caesars Palace), Georgia from +4.5 to +4 vs. Alabama, South Carolina +17 to +16.5 vs. LSU. The favorites were Navy from -10 to -10.5 vs. Duke, Colorado -10.5 to -11.5 vs. Miami-Ohio (and steamed to 14 by Monday morning), Ohio St. -21 to -22 vs. Northwestern, Georgia Tech -3 to -4 vs. Virginia, Iowa St. -3 to -3.5 vs. Toledo, Pittsburgh -7 to -7.5 vs. Connecticut (and now as high as 9) and Arizona St. -10.5 to -11.5 vs. Oregon St. In one other note, the Strat opened winless Notre Dame +14 vs. Michigan St. and didn't move it Sunday night, but on Monday morning, the Hilton and Station Casinos both opened the line at Michigan St. -11.5.
Other sports news and notes . . .
It sure seems like it's all football at this time of year (at least to me), but people with other interests certainly had their betting thrills over the weekend, too:
* Tiger Woods won The Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta by eight shots. Before the tournament, Woods was the even-money favorite at the Las Vegas Hilton. When I stopped by the Hilton sports book on Sunday morning, I asked golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman if he had any odds up on that day's golf action. "No, Tiger is too far ahead. I couldn't make the odds high enough on him vs. Mark Calvecchia."
* Clint Bowyer won the Sylvania 300 Nextel Cup race Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It was his first career victory and couldn't have come at a better time as it was the first race of the Chase for the Cup over the last 12 races of the Nextel Cup season. He was in 12th place heading into the weekend, and the longest shot on the betting boards at Station Casinos at 30-1 as cited in last week's Monday Morning Report, but is now in fourth place. This week's race is the Dodge Dealers 400 at Dover International Speedway with Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart as the co-favorites at 6-1, with Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin at 7-1, and Martin Truex Jr. at 8-1. Bowyer is 18-1.
* The Phoenix Mercury beat the Detroit Shock 108-92 Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs to win the WNBA title 3 games to 2. The Mercury were the first team in the WNBA's 11-year history to clinch a title on the road. Heading into the playoffs, the Mercury were the 7-2 second choice behind the defending champion Shock at 2-1.
* And no sports report could be complete this past weekend without a comment on O.J. Simpson being arrested in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon and charged in connection with an alleged armed holdup at the Palace Station Hotel & Casino. Two memorabilia dealers, Bruce Fromong and Alfred Beardsley, claim Simpson entered their hotel room Thursday night with four other men, including at least one with a gun, and took $75,000 worth of sports memorabilia at gunpoint. Simpson admits he went to their room but said no one was armed and they didn't take anything by force. After talking with more witnesses and including one person that was part of Simpson's posse, police received a warrant for his arrest and took him into custody Sunday and charged him with two counts of robbery with a deadly weapon, two counts of assault with a deadly weapon, conspiracy to commit robbery, and coercion with use of a deadly weapon, among others. In all, the eight counts carry a maximum penalty of 106 years in prison. However, Simpson did make himself eligible for the Las Vegas tourism board's Man of the Year Award for being quoted in the Los Angeles Times: "I thought what happened in Las Vegas stays in Las Vegas."
However, this Sunday we saw a turnaround in the market (and then some) as underdogs covered seven of the eight early games and ended the day 11-3-1 against the spread with only the Steelers, Cowboys and Patriots covering as favorites. The Lions-Vikings game was the push as the Lions won 20-17 in overtime as a 3-point favorite
Not only did all those underdogs help the books lock up a lot of profits from the straight bets, but it also knocked out a lot of parlay action, which the public tends to string together with a lot of favorites. In addition, even though six of the favorites pulled outright upsets (Browns, Texans, 49ers, Packers, Bucs and Cardinals), there were five favorites that won their games even though they didn't cover (Colts, Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos, Bears), so the books didn't have to pay out on too many dogs on the money line. When the dogs do win outright, you'll often hear bookmakers, who are usually in a position to cheer for the underdogs against the betting public say that "too many dogs won."
The Browns' 51-45 win over the Bengals was seen as the most shocking — and that contention is supported by the fact the Browns were 7-point dawgs while the Texans were +6.5, the Bucs were dismissed at +5 with a lot of late money on the Saints, and the 49ers and Packers were around +3 — but it supported the theory that home underdogs are always to be considered in the NFL. Home dogs went 4-1 against the spread (improving to 6-3 through two weeks) with the Dolphins being the only team to not come through.
Another good barometer of how the public is faring vs. the oddsmakers is the results of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. The top two plays in that competiton were the Bengals and Saints. In all, the consensus plays went 4-10-1 with one of those wins being the Texans having a minuscule 58-57 edge in the number of times picked by the contestants.
As you can see from above, the dogs were 11-2-1 heading into the Sunday night game, but even with the favored Patriots winning and covering 38-14, the books fared well as the Chargers were a popular underdog.
Heading into Monday night's Redskins-Eagles game, underdogs are 17-12-2 against the spread in the early going. Unders are 19-2 heading into Monday night after going 8-7 on Sunday after being 11-5 on opening weekend.
* The books here also fared well Saturday as underdogs went 23-18-1 on the main betting board Saturday. In a similar barometer to the SuperContest being used in the pros, we can look to the Leroy's College Challenge and see that the top choice was Kansas, which was bet from -22 to -27 before routing Toledo 45-13, but then the next seven consensus plays all lost to show that the public was losing a lot that day, too. Over/unders, which aren't always posted on all of the games except in the major conferences, went 13-13-1.
Early line move report
You might think that with all the bettors losing money on Sunday that no one would have any to bet the opening lines for next week's action. But, actually, the professional bettors that are the ones to fire away at the first numbers to be posted actually do well when underdogs cover, so there was a lot of action Sunday evening.
Of the 16 games on next weekend's NFL schedule, the Panthers-Falcons game is the only one that hasn't moved off the opening numbers that the Las Vegas Hilton posted at 4:30 p.m. Sunday. In that game, the Panthers are a 4-point road favorite and holding steady. Every other game has moved, with the biggest change being the Jets opening as a 5-point favorite over the Dolphins and the number steadily being bet down to 3.
If you were to get a printout of the opening numbers and the current lines as of Monday morning, you would say, "Wait, there's four more games that are the same as their openers — the Chiefs -2 vs. the Vikings, the Ravens -7.5 vs. the Cardinals, the Seahawks -3.5 vs. the Bengals, and the Raiders -3.5 vs. the Browns." While that is true, all of them moved off the opener and then back again. The most extreme was the Chiefs, who opened -2, went to -2.5 and -3 EV, and then back down to 2.5 and 2 again. All of the others moved just a half-point before going back.
A more extreme reversal was in the Steelers-49ers matchup. That game opened at Steelers -7.5 at the Hilton, as well as -8 at the Stratosphere, went to 7 at both places, then back up to 7.5, 8 and 8.5 by Monday morning.
In the three Sunday games at 1:05 p.m. PDT on the Don Best schedule — Broncos-Jaguars, Seahawks-Bengals, Raiders-Browns — all have been wavering back and forth between 3 and 3.5
* When the Stratosphere was the first in town to put up lines on college games at 4:45 p.m., 10 games moved off the opening numbers with just three underdogs getting early action: Baylor from +5 to +4.5 vs. Buffalo (and which has since gone down to 4 most places and as low as 3.5 at the Hilton and Caesars Palace), Georgia from +4.5 to +4 vs. Alabama, South Carolina +17 to +16.5 vs. LSU. The favorites were Navy from -10 to -10.5 vs. Duke, Colorado -10.5 to -11.5 vs. Miami-Ohio (and steamed to 14 by Monday morning), Ohio St. -21 to -22 vs. Northwestern, Georgia Tech -3 to -4 vs. Virginia, Iowa St. -3 to -3.5 vs. Toledo, Pittsburgh -7 to -7.5 vs. Connecticut (and now as high as 9) and Arizona St. -10.5 to -11.5 vs. Oregon St. In one other note, the Strat opened winless Notre Dame +14 vs. Michigan St. and didn't move it Sunday night, but on Monday morning, the Hilton and Station Casinos both opened the line at Michigan St. -11.5.
Other sports news and notes . . .
It sure seems like it's all football at this time of year (at least to me), but people with other interests certainly had their betting thrills over the weekend, too:
* Tiger Woods won The Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta by eight shots. Before the tournament, Woods was the even-money favorite at the Las Vegas Hilton. When I stopped by the Hilton sports book on Sunday morning, I asked golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman if he had any odds up on that day's golf action. "No, Tiger is too far ahead. I couldn't make the odds high enough on him vs. Mark Calvecchia."
* Clint Bowyer won the Sylvania 300 Nextel Cup race Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It was his first career victory and couldn't have come at a better time as it was the first race of the Chase for the Cup over the last 12 races of the Nextel Cup season. He was in 12th place heading into the weekend, and the longest shot on the betting boards at Station Casinos at 30-1 as cited in last week's Monday Morning Report, but is now in fourth place. This week's race is the Dodge Dealers 400 at Dover International Speedway with Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart as the co-favorites at 6-1, with Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin at 7-1, and Martin Truex Jr. at 8-1. Bowyer is 18-1.
* The Phoenix Mercury beat the Detroit Shock 108-92 Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs to win the WNBA title 3 games to 2. The Mercury were the first team in the WNBA's 11-year history to clinch a title on the road. Heading into the playoffs, the Mercury were the 7-2 second choice behind the defending champion Shock at 2-1.
* And no sports report could be complete this past weekend without a comment on O.J. Simpson being arrested in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon and charged in connection with an alleged armed holdup at the Palace Station Hotel & Casino. Two memorabilia dealers, Bruce Fromong and Alfred Beardsley, claim Simpson entered their hotel room Thursday night with four other men, including at least one with a gun, and took $75,000 worth of sports memorabilia at gunpoint. Simpson admits he went to their room but said no one was armed and they didn't take anything by force. After talking with more witnesses and including one person that was part of Simpson's posse, police received a warrant for his arrest and took him into custody Sunday and charged him with two counts of robbery with a deadly weapon, two counts of assault with a deadly weapon, conspiracy to commit robbery, and coercion with use of a deadly weapon, among others. In all, the eight counts carry a maximum penalty of 106 years in prison. However, Simpson did make himself eligible for the Las Vegas tourism board's Man of the Year Award for being quoted in the Los Angeles Times: "I thought what happened in Las Vegas stays in Las Vegas."
"I thought what happened in Las Vegas stays in Las Vegas."
I guess OJ will be in Las Vegas a loooong time!
Reply to this