Opening line moves; weekend wrap-up
Every week in the "Monday Morning Report," we will be looking at the opening-line moves for the next weekend's football games as well as the usual wrap-up of the just-concluded weekend's action, with an emphasis on football since it's clearly the No. 1 betting sport.
First, let's take a look at the Las Vegas scene on Sunday afternoon when the opening lines are posted for the following week's games. The Hilton puts up NFL sides at approximately 4:30 p.m. (all times PDT) and opens one betting window for limit wagers. A lottery is held to determine the order in which bettors will get to wager. Shortly thereafter, the Stratosphere puts up both NFL and college sides at 4:45 p.m. The Strat's numbers can also be bet at Arizona Charlie's East and West, as well as the Aquarius in Laughlin. Leroy's also puts up NFL and college numbers later on Sunday night in advance of its radio show from 10 p.m. to midnight on KDWN AM-720 and kdwn.com. The Stardust, longtime "home of the Las Vegas line," is no more after being imploded They open one window and take limit wagers from
These line moves can be valuable to know as it can show in which direction the lines are likely to continue moving. For instance, if a game opens at 7.5 and gets bet to 9 and you like the underdog, you can see it might continue to get bet to 10. If, however, you like the favorite, you might figure that you better bet ASAP before it moves further. There can also be cases where you'll see a line has moved so far that you'd be foolish to bet it after missing out on the , such as the case where a team opens -6 and gets bet to -7.5 (if you didn't' get the team at less than a touchdown where there was value, you should pass).
It also should be noted that, even though this is the ViewFromVegas, offshore books such as CRIS and Pinnacle put up numbers prior to the Hilton's Sunday posting, and the vast majority of the games that are bet will move in direction of those numbers) So, reading these line moves has to be done with a discerning eye to determine if bettors wagering on what they feel is the more likely team to cover, or if they're just arbitraging. Also let it be noted that even though Sunday's releases are considering the "openers," the Las Vegas Hilton actually puts up advance NFL lines 12 days in advance on Tuesday afternoon (which you can find on the ViewFromVegas Odds and Ends page each Tuesday night.
Opening-line moves
Now that the intro is finally over, there were four NFL games that were bet enough at the Hilton to move off their opening numbers: the Colts from -6.5 to -7 vs. the Titans, the Panthers from -6 to -6.5 vs. the Texans, the Ravens from -7 to -7.5 vs. the Jets, and the Giants from -3.5 to -4 vs. the Packers (though keep in mind that this was before the Giants' injuries in their Sunday night loss to the Cowboys, causing the game to be taken off the board and no books putting up a line as of Monday morning). You'll note that money came on the favorite in all four games. In addition, there were three more backed favorites who opened at exactly -3 and the Hilton adjusted the price on the -3 to -120 (as opposed to the standard juice of -110). Bettors wanting to take a +3 could just lay even-money, but risk missing out on +3.5 if the line continues to move. Those games were the Saints vs. the Bucs, Lions vs. the Vikings and the Seahawks vs. the Cardinals.
At the Stratosphere, the Colts opened -6 and were bet to -7 (which as of Monday now looks like a solid number). The Strat opened the Texans +7 EV and the bettors predictably took the full touchdown and bet it down to +6. The Jaguars opened +11 and moved toward the Hilton's +10 and settled at +10.5, the Cowboys were bet from -2.5 to -3, the Seahawks were bet from -2.5 all the way to -3 (-120) just like the Hilton, and the Chargers saw support at +5 vs. the Patriots and were bet down to +4. That line has been coming down everywhere as the Hilton made it 5.5 last Tuesday and posted 4.5 on Sunday, but as of Monday most books were dealing it at 4 with several offshore books at 3.5.
Pigskin Postmortem
This is where I'll give a weekly recap of the action on the gridiron, but more specifically the action in the sports books of Las Vegas.
* In college football, there were 50 games on the betting boards between Thursday and Saturday. The teams that were favored won 42 of the games on the scoreboard, but unlike last week when favorites were 21-9 against the spread on Saturday and 24-12 overall to really kill the bookmakers, underdogs prevailed 26-21-3 to help the bookies get back most if not all of their losses from the previous week. The results were pretty split in the home vs. away category as road teams held a slight edge at 24-23-3. The home underdog subset went 7-4-against the spread.
* In the NFL, favorites and home teams both 8-5-1 against the spread (all the home teams weren't favored, but the four road faves went 2-2 so it worked out the same) through the Sunday night Giants-Cowboys game. The push was the Redskins' 16-13 overtime victory over the Dolphins as a 3-point favorite. The shootout in Dallas, which the Cowboys won 45-35, was different from the rest of the day as unders are 10-4. Bettors as a whole fared pretty good against the books with the favorites doing well, and capping the day with the favorite/over parlay, which the books almost always seem to be dreading in standalone prime-time games.
And the rest . . .
Jimmie Johnson won Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Nextel Cup race under the lights at Richmond International Speedway. Johnson, who was the 5-1 co-favorite at Station Casinos' sports books, moved to the top of the season standings heading into the Chase for the Cup, which includes the final 10 races of the year starting with Sunday's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. Johnson is again the 5-1 co-favorite in that race along with teammate Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Gordon is still the favorite to win the points championship at 5-2, followed by Tony Stewart at 7-2, Johnson at 4-1 and Hamlin at 5-1. The rest of the 12 eligible drivers are Matt Kenseth (12-1), Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch (both at 15-1), Kyle Busch (17-1), Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick (both at 20-1), Martin Truex Jr. (25-1, though officially listed as the "field" because he wasn't on the original future-book list), and Clint Bowyer (30-1).
* For those who weren't totally immersed in the NFL on Sunday, Tiger Woods won the BMW Championship at Cog Hill Country Club in Lemont, Ill. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Woods was the pre-tournament at 5-4 at the Las Vegas Hilton, and he's even-money in this The Tour Championship this Thursday through Sunday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
* The only athlete that's close to as dominant in his sport is Roger Federer, who won the U.S. Open Sunday as the -260 favorite (risk $2.60 for every $1 you wanted to profit) prior to the start of the tourney.
First, let's take a look at the Las Vegas scene on Sunday afternoon when the opening lines are posted for the following week's games. The Hilton puts up NFL sides at approximately 4:30 p.m. (all times PDT) and opens one betting window for limit wagers. A lottery is held to determine the order in which bettors will get to wager. Shortly thereafter, the Stratosphere puts up both NFL and college sides at 4:45 p.m. The Strat's numbers can also be bet at Arizona Charlie's East and West, as well as the Aquarius in Laughlin. Leroy's also puts up NFL and college numbers later on Sunday night in advance of its radio show from 10 p.m. to midnight on KDWN AM-720 and kdwn.com. The Stardust, longtime "home of the Las Vegas line," is no more after being imploded They open one window and take limit wagers from
These line moves can be valuable to know as it can show in which direction the lines are likely to continue moving. For instance, if a game opens at 7.5 and gets bet to 9 and you like the underdog, you can see it might continue to get bet to 10. If, however, you like the favorite, you might figure that you better bet ASAP before it moves further. There can also be cases where you'll see a line has moved so far that you'd be foolish to bet it after missing out on the , such as the case where a team opens -6 and gets bet to -7.5 (if you didn't' get the team at less than a touchdown where there was value, you should pass).
It also should be noted that, even though this is the ViewFromVegas, offshore books such as CRIS and Pinnacle put up numbers prior to the Hilton's Sunday posting, and the vast majority of the games that are bet will move in direction of those numbers) So, reading these line moves has to be done with a discerning eye to determine if bettors wagering on what they feel is the more likely team to cover, or if they're just arbitraging. Also let it be noted that even though Sunday's releases are considering the "openers," the Las Vegas Hilton actually puts up advance NFL lines 12 days in advance on Tuesday afternoon (which you can find on the ViewFromVegas Odds and Ends page each Tuesday night.
Opening-line moves
Now that the intro is finally over, there were four NFL games that were bet enough at the Hilton to move off their opening numbers: the Colts from -6.5 to -7 vs. the Titans, the Panthers from -6 to -6.5 vs. the Texans, the Ravens from -7 to -7.5 vs. the Jets, and the Giants from -3.5 to -4 vs. the Packers (though keep in mind that this was before the Giants' injuries in their Sunday night loss to the Cowboys, causing the game to be taken off the board and no books putting up a line as of Monday morning). You'll note that money came on the favorite in all four games. In addition, there were three more backed favorites who opened at exactly -3 and the Hilton adjusted the price on the -3 to -120 (as opposed to the standard juice of -110). Bettors wanting to take a +3 could just lay even-money, but risk missing out on +3.5 if the line continues to move. Those games were the Saints vs. the Bucs, Lions vs. the Vikings and the Seahawks vs. the Cardinals.
At the Stratosphere, the Colts opened -6 and were bet to -7 (which as of Monday now looks like a solid number). The Strat opened the Texans +7 EV and the bettors predictably took the full touchdown and bet it down to +6. The Jaguars opened +11 and moved toward the Hilton's +10 and settled at +10.5, the Cowboys were bet from -2.5 to -3, the Seahawks were bet from -2.5 all the way to -3 (-120) just like the Hilton, and the Chargers saw support at +5 vs. the Patriots and were bet down to +4. That line has been coming down everywhere as the Hilton made it 5.5 last Tuesday and posted 4.5 on Sunday, but as of Monday most books were dealing it at 4 with several offshore books at 3.5.
Pigskin Postmortem
This is where I'll give a weekly recap of the action on the gridiron, but more specifically the action in the sports books of Las Vegas.
* In college football, there were 50 games on the betting boards between Thursday and Saturday. The teams that were favored won 42 of the games on the scoreboard, but unlike last week when favorites were 21-9 against the spread on Saturday and 24-12 overall to really kill the bookmakers, underdogs prevailed 26-21-3 to help the bookies get back most if not all of their losses from the previous week. The results were pretty split in the home vs. away category as road teams held a slight edge at 24-23-3. The home underdog subset went 7-4-against the spread.
* In the NFL, favorites and home teams both 8-5-1 against the spread (all the home teams weren't favored, but the four road faves went 2-2 so it worked out the same) through the Sunday night Giants-Cowboys game. The push was the Redskins' 16-13 overtime victory over the Dolphins as a 3-point favorite. The shootout in Dallas, which the Cowboys won 45-35, was different from the rest of the day as unders are 10-4. Bettors as a whole fared pretty good against the books with the favorites doing well, and capping the day with the favorite/over parlay, which the books almost always seem to be dreading in standalone prime-time games.
And the rest . . .
Jimmie Johnson won Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Nextel Cup race under the lights at Richmond International Speedway. Johnson, who was the 5-1 co-favorite at Station Casinos' sports books, moved to the top of the season standings heading into the Chase for the Cup, which includes the final 10 races of the year starting with Sunday's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. Johnson is again the 5-1 co-favorite in that race along with teammate Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Gordon is still the favorite to win the points championship at 5-2, followed by Tony Stewart at 7-2, Johnson at 4-1 and Hamlin at 5-1. The rest of the 12 eligible drivers are Matt Kenseth (12-1), Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch (both at 15-1), Kyle Busch (17-1), Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick (both at 20-1), Martin Truex Jr. (25-1, though officially listed as the "field" because he wasn't on the original future-book list), and Clint Bowyer (30-1).
* For those who weren't totally immersed in the NFL on Sunday, Tiger Woods won the BMW Championship at Cog Hill Country Club in Lemont, Ill. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Woods was the pre-tournament at 5-4 at the Las Vegas Hilton, and he's even-money in this The Tour Championship this Thursday through Sunday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
* The only athlete that's close to as dominant in his sport is Roger Federer, who won the U.S. Open Sunday as the -260 favorite (risk $2.60 for every $1 you wanted to profit) prior to the start of the tourney.
Is it an abberation that the favorites won so much? Last season it seemed the Dogs covered most of the time. If you know the answer let me know. Not that it will matter, I will still bet the wrong side.
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Jesse...yes, the dogs were barking last season at a rate of 140-106-7 (57 percent), though the year before favorite hit at a 58-percent clip.
I'm hoping that Week 1 was an abberation and that all the people who won on the favorites will continue to bet that way and move the lines to give more value to the underdogs.
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