Early college scoring has been 'under'whelming
The first two days of the college football season are in the books, and even though the rule change with teams kicking off from the 30 instead of the 35 has resulted in teams seeing a little better starting field position, the 'over'all impact has been 'under'whelming.
In fact of the seven games on the betting boards in Las Vegas on Thursday night, the only five that had totals posted all went under the closing number. It wasn't until Washington defeated Syracuse 42-12 on Friday night that a college game went over the total.
That doesn't look good for my recommendation under the Tuley the Tout moniker in which I said to take a look at a lot of overs in this weekend's games, but I made it clear, especially when I wrote "I'm not predicting that the overs are the better bet — with the totals shaded higher, it might very well be the case that unders will come out ahead — but that will be the way the public will lean, and we might be able to position ourselves to take a shot at hitting some middles." That's exactly what happened when the only total I personally bet prior to Thursday was Tulsa-UL Monroe over 51 and then took half my bet back at under 53. I lucked out when Tulsa won 35-17 to nail the middle. I just wish I had posted that as an official play. Note: I did later mention that I have early positions on the following games — Virginia-Wyoming (41), Mississippi-Memphis (49), Iowa-Northern Illinois (45), Oklahoma St.-Georgia (54.5), Tennessee-California (53.5) and New Mexico-UTEP (51.5) — so hopefully some other games fall.
Again, those aren't official plays. I started the season 0-1 as I had Utah vs. Oregon St. on Thursday night. The Utes grabbed a 7-0 lead but starting quarterback Brian Johnson separated his shoulder and Utah was held scoreless the rest of the game as Oregon St. won 24-7. For Saturday, I have Wyoming +4 vs. Virginia, though that line has dipped to 3.5 and even 3 at some books, and I'm hoping to get Toledo +7 vs. Purdue but I'll take +6.5.
* Unders were also red-hot in the final week of the NFL preseason as they went 11-5 on Thursday and Friday. And most of them weren't close as 10 of the 16 games have fewer than 30 points scored.
* If you're in Las Vegas, it's not always easy to find reduced juice on football games (and since Pinnacle is no longer dealing to U.S. customers, it's nearly as hard online) and even when books like the Las Vegas Hilton or Stratosphere offer -105, it's usually just for a few hours on one day a week (Thursday). But this year the Plaza in downtown Vegas is offering -105, or more accurately a 10-cent line as sometimes they'll shade one side to be -110 with the other side at even-money. But it definitely pays to shop down there, especially as they're likely to have several games that have the best price in town for what you're looking for.
* One of the biggest news stories on Friday was the Jaguars announcing that David Garrard is the starting quarterback instead of Bryon Leftwich. I was hoping the line in the Titans-Jaguars opener, which has been hovering between Jags -6.5 and -7, would cross the key number of 7, but with this news I grabbed the Titans +7 for fears the line may drop.
* Here's a look at the LVSC Top 30, the oddsmakers' preseason college football poll by the Las Vegas Sports Consultants that I wrote about in Saturday's editions of Daily Racing Form (it's assumed so far that LSU, Louisville and Rutgers will have improved their ratings):
* If you're really into college football, check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums on Saturday night after all the games are played as VFV contributor Andy Ducay will post his line projections for next weekend's college slate. It should be a great way to start your handicapping.
In fact of the seven games on the betting boards in Las Vegas on Thursday night, the only five that had totals posted all went under the closing number. It wasn't until Washington defeated Syracuse 42-12 on Friday night that a college game went over the total.
That doesn't look good for my recommendation under the Tuley the Tout moniker in which I said to take a look at a lot of overs in this weekend's games, but I made it clear, especially when I wrote "I'm not predicting that the overs are the better bet — with the totals shaded higher, it might very well be the case that unders will come out ahead — but that will be the way the public will lean, and we might be able to position ourselves to take a shot at hitting some middles." That's exactly what happened when the only total I personally bet prior to Thursday was Tulsa-UL Monroe over 51 and then took half my bet back at under 53. I lucked out when Tulsa won 35-17 to nail the middle. I just wish I had posted that as an official play. Note: I did later mention that I have early positions on the following games — Virginia-Wyoming (41), Mississippi-Memphis (49), Iowa-Northern Illinois (45), Oklahoma St.-Georgia (54.5), Tennessee-California (53.5) and New Mexico-UTEP (51.5) — so hopefully some other games fall.
Again, those aren't official plays. I started the season 0-1 as I had Utah vs. Oregon St. on Thursday night. The Utes grabbed a 7-0 lead but starting quarterback Brian Johnson separated his shoulder and Utah was held scoreless the rest of the game as Oregon St. won 24-7. For Saturday, I have Wyoming +4 vs. Virginia, though that line has dipped to 3.5 and even 3 at some books, and I'm hoping to get Toledo +7 vs. Purdue but I'll take +6.5.
* Unders were also red-hot in the final week of the NFL preseason as they went 11-5 on Thursday and Friday. And most of them weren't close as 10 of the 16 games have fewer than 30 points scored.
* If you're in Las Vegas, it's not always easy to find reduced juice on football games (and since Pinnacle is no longer dealing to U.S. customers, it's nearly as hard online) and even when books like the Las Vegas Hilton or Stratosphere offer -105, it's usually just for a few hours on one day a week (Thursday). But this year the Plaza in downtown Vegas is offering -105, or more accurately a 10-cent line as sometimes they'll shade one side to be -110 with the other side at even-money. But it definitely pays to shop down there, especially as they're likely to have several games that have the best price in town for what you're looking for.
* One of the biggest news stories on Friday was the Jaguars announcing that David Garrard is the starting quarterback instead of Bryon Leftwich. I was hoping the line in the Titans-Jaguars opener, which has been hovering between Jags -6.5 and -7, would cross the key number of 7, but with this news I grabbed the Titans +7 for fears the line may drop.
* Here's a look at the LVSC Top 30, the oddsmakers' preseason college football poll by the Las Vegas Sports Consultants that I wrote about in Saturday's editions of Daily Racing Form (it's assumed so far that LSU, Louisville and Rutgers will have improved their ratings):
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Southern Cal | 113.4 |
| 2 | LSU | 109.7 |
| 3 | Texas | 109.5 |
| 4 | Louisville | 108.4 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 107.3 |
| 6 | Florida | 107.1 |
| 7 | California | 106.8 |
| 8 | West Virginia | 106.6 |
| 9 | UCLA | 106.3 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 106.3 |
| 11 | Michigan | 106.0 |
| 11 | Ohio St. | 106.0 |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | 105.8 |
| 14 | Nebraska | 105.5 |
| 15 | Miami-Fla. | 104.9 |
| 16 | South Carolina | 104.7 |
| 17 | Georgia Tech | 104.2 |
| 18 | Penn St. | 104.0 |
| 19 | Arkansas | 103.9 |
| 20 | Florida St. | 103.7 |
| 21 | TCU | 103.3 |
| 21 | Oregon | 103.3 |
| 23 | Missouri | 103.2 |
| 24 | Rutgers | 102.9 |
| 25 | Hawaii | 102.8 |
| 26 | Tennessee | 102.5 |
| 27 | Georgia | 102.4 |
| 28 | Arizona St. | 102.3 |
| 29 | Texas A&M | 101.7 |
| 30 | Oklahoma St. | 101.6 |
* If you're really into college football, check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums on Saturday night after all the games are played as VFV contributor Andy Ducay will post his line projections for next weekend's college slate. It should be a great way to start your handicapping.
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