Friday's news: NBA ref, Vick, Bonds, golf, soccer, boxing
Friday seemed like one of the busiest sports news days of the year. If you were like me, you were glued to the TV set for everything from the British Open to the shocking news of the NY Post breaking the story about the NBA referee scandal to updates on Michael Vicks' legal woes to Barry Bonds pursuing Hank Aaron to the drama of whether David Beckham will or won't play for the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday to the shoving match at the Winky Wright-Bernard Hopkins weigh-in.
Wow! It was a wild and crazy day, and exactly the kind of day you would think would be tailor-made for ViewFromVegas.com. After all, this site was created to give the Las Vegas point of view on the day's events. But, in a bit of irony, it's not like the sports betting markets were turned upside down by any of these goings-on.
* The story about the FBI investigating an NBA referee — which many media outlets later reported was Tim Donaghy — is huge and we haven't heard the last of it, but the impact won't be felt for a while until we get more information. What specific games are under scrutiny? Were other referees involved? Here at ViewFromVegas.com, we like to write about our city's view of the news since the major news outlets often miss that part of the story (or misrepresent it). In this case, with the subject matter, Vegas viewpoints were sought out. The interesting thing is that there weren't any rumors on the Strip preceding this news. Specific instances were hard to come by. When the Toledo point-shaving story broke early this year, a lot of people said "Uh-huh, we knew something wasn't right with their games," and local bettors and bookmakers could remember certain games that raised suspicion, plus the fact some books took Mid-American Game off the betting boards or limited action. The problem with any gambling story is that Las Vegas usually is the victim of guilt by association. However, unless new information comes to light, it appears the bets in question were all made with illegal bookmakers back east or with offshore books. In addition to bookmakers, the media also reached out to Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who was asked if this would hurt his city's chance to land an NBA team. Goodman did a brilliant spin job (just like you would expect from the former defense attorney and current politician) by telling the Associated Press: "We're the only regulatory agency in the world that really looks at unusual activity as far as the movement of the line and that type of conduct. That's why whenever red herrings are thrown up that somehow Las Vegas is a bad place because we have sports betting, I look at it just as a reverse. I think it's a good thing that Las Vegas has the type of regulation that makes sure that bad things don't happen." Again, we're seeing just the tip of the iceberg with this story and I'm sure it'll be a topic of discussion here for a long time
* The Michael Vick story seems to change every day. For instance, when I wrote my column this week for Saturday's print editions of the Daily Racing Form, it appeared that Vick would be free to play this season while awaiting trial on charges related to an alleged dog-fighting ring. So, there was little movement in the future-book odds for the Falcons, though some books took them off the board until they received more details. Well, even before a lot of people would read that story, the news came out Friday that Vick might be asked to take a "voluntary" leave of absence to concentrate on his defense. So, it's looking more likely that he could sit out the season. Guess what? The Falcons' odds didn't change on this news either. They're still 3-point underdogs to the Vikings in their season opener, and have an over/under season win total of 7.5 games and they're 4-1 to win the NFC South and anywhere from 40-1 to 70-1 to win the Super Bowl.
* The Bonds story is another saga that changed since I filed my DRF story. When I first started writing, Bonds hadn't homered in two weeks and was in an 0-for-21 slump and I wrote he wasn't likely to pass Aaron during the week of July 23-29, which was the 5-1 betting favorite in a prop offered earlier this spring at the Wynn sports book. As I was about to file on Thursday morning, I saw the story online that Bonds had homered in the second inning at Chicago's Wrigley Field, so I made a few changes to my copy and sent in the column. After deadline, I learned that Bonds had homered a second time in the game to move within two homers of Aaron, so now it's looking more possible that the Wynn odds might have been right on the mark. Still, that bet is off the board at Wynn, so the recent news had no impact on current offerings.
* Sergio Garcia has been the talk of the British Open through Friday's action as he held a two-stroke lead over K.J. Choi and three strokes over Jim Furyk and Angel Miguel Jimenez. Before the tournament, Garcia was 30-1 to win his first major, while Tiger Woods was the 3-1 favorite. Interestingly enough, even with Woods seven strokes off the pace, Las Vegas Sports Consultants' odds heading into Saturday's action have Garcia at 7-2 and Woods the second choice at 5-1, followed by Furyk at 7-1, Choi at 8-1, Weir at 10-1 and Jimenez at 18-1.
* Yet another change since filing my DRF story. At the time I filed, it looked like David Beckham was expected to play his much-anticipated first game for the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday vs. Chelsea despite his injured left ankle. I quoted Las Vegas Hilton oddsmaker Jeff Sherman as saying Beckham's playing status really wouldn't affect the odds too much since he's not much of a scorer. At the time, he had Chelsea as a 1.5-goal favorite with a money-line attached of +120, meaning those taking the Galaxy would get +1.5 goals but would have to lay -140. Despite the news that Beckham won't start and will likely only make a cameo at the end of the game, the odds on the Galaxy +1.5 have dropped to -130.
* The other big sporting event Saturday night is the Winky Wright-Bernard Hopkins fight here in Las Vegas. Wright is up to a -150 favorite at some books, and that does appear to be the "wright" side as he'll probably be throwing more punches than Hopkins and is a defensive specialist. Of course, the general consensus is that, despite the "Coming to Fight" title given to the bout, both will fight pretty conservatively. The will go/won't go is set at 11.5 or 12 rounds depending on where you bet, with a higher premium (between -450 and -600 on the will go) as neither experienced warrior is expected to be knocked out. I'll be posting live from ringside at Mandalay Bay starting around 7 p.m. PDT Saturday night in the ViewFromVegas Forums. Join in the conversation, especially if you're watching on pay-per-view.
Wow! It was a wild and crazy day, and exactly the kind of day you would think would be tailor-made for ViewFromVegas.com. After all, this site was created to give the Las Vegas point of view on the day's events. But, in a bit of irony, it's not like the sports betting markets were turned upside down by any of these goings-on.
* The story about the FBI investigating an NBA referee — which many media outlets later reported was Tim Donaghy — is huge and we haven't heard the last of it, but the impact won't be felt for a while until we get more information. What specific games are under scrutiny? Were other referees involved? Here at ViewFromVegas.com, we like to write about our city's view of the news since the major news outlets often miss that part of the story (or misrepresent it). In this case, with the subject matter, Vegas viewpoints were sought out. The interesting thing is that there weren't any rumors on the Strip preceding this news. Specific instances were hard to come by. When the Toledo point-shaving story broke early this year, a lot of people said "Uh-huh, we knew something wasn't right with their games," and local bettors and bookmakers could remember certain games that raised suspicion, plus the fact some books took Mid-American Game off the betting boards or limited action. The problem with any gambling story is that Las Vegas usually is the victim of guilt by association. However, unless new information comes to light, it appears the bets in question were all made with illegal bookmakers back east or with offshore books. In addition to bookmakers, the media also reached out to Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who was asked if this would hurt his city's chance to land an NBA team. Goodman did a brilliant spin job (just like you would expect from the former defense attorney and current politician) by telling the Associated Press: "We're the only regulatory agency in the world that really looks at unusual activity as far as the movement of the line and that type of conduct. That's why whenever red herrings are thrown up that somehow Las Vegas is a bad place because we have sports betting, I look at it just as a reverse. I think it's a good thing that Las Vegas has the type of regulation that makes sure that bad things don't happen." Again, we're seeing just the tip of the iceberg with this story and I'm sure it'll be a topic of discussion here for a long time
* The Michael Vick story seems to change every day. For instance, when I wrote my column this week for Saturday's print editions of the Daily Racing Form, it appeared that Vick would be free to play this season while awaiting trial on charges related to an alleged dog-fighting ring. So, there was little movement in the future-book odds for the Falcons, though some books took them off the board until they received more details. Well, even before a lot of people would read that story, the news came out Friday that Vick might be asked to take a "voluntary" leave of absence to concentrate on his defense. So, it's looking more likely that he could sit out the season. Guess what? The Falcons' odds didn't change on this news either. They're still 3-point underdogs to the Vikings in their season opener, and have an over/under season win total of 7.5 games and they're 4-1 to win the NFC South and anywhere from 40-1 to 70-1 to win the Super Bowl.
* The Bonds story is another saga that changed since I filed my DRF story. When I first started writing, Bonds hadn't homered in two weeks and was in an 0-for-21 slump and I wrote he wasn't likely to pass Aaron during the week of July 23-29, which was the 5-1 betting favorite in a prop offered earlier this spring at the Wynn sports book. As I was about to file on Thursday morning, I saw the story online that Bonds had homered in the second inning at Chicago's Wrigley Field, so I made a few changes to my copy and sent in the column. After deadline, I learned that Bonds had homered a second time in the game to move within two homers of Aaron, so now it's looking more possible that the Wynn odds might have been right on the mark. Still, that bet is off the board at Wynn, so the recent news had no impact on current offerings.
* Sergio Garcia has been the talk of the British Open through Friday's action as he held a two-stroke lead over K.J. Choi and three strokes over Jim Furyk and Angel Miguel Jimenez. Before the tournament, Garcia was 30-1 to win his first major, while Tiger Woods was the 3-1 favorite. Interestingly enough, even with Woods seven strokes off the pace, Las Vegas Sports Consultants' odds heading into Saturday's action have Garcia at 7-2 and Woods the second choice at 5-1, followed by Furyk at 7-1, Choi at 8-1, Weir at 10-1 and Jimenez at 18-1.
* Yet another change since filing my DRF story. At the time I filed, it looked like David Beckham was expected to play his much-anticipated first game for the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday vs. Chelsea despite his injured left ankle. I quoted Las Vegas Hilton oddsmaker Jeff Sherman as saying Beckham's playing status really wouldn't affect the odds too much since he's not much of a scorer. At the time, he had Chelsea as a 1.5-goal favorite with a money-line attached of +120, meaning those taking the Galaxy would get +1.5 goals but would have to lay -140. Despite the news that Beckham won't start and will likely only make a cameo at the end of the game, the odds on the Galaxy +1.5 have dropped to -130.
* The other big sporting event Saturday night is the Winky Wright-Bernard Hopkins fight here in Las Vegas. Wright is up to a -150 favorite at some books, and that does appear to be the "wright" side as he'll probably be throwing more punches than Hopkins and is a defensive specialist. Of course, the general consensus is that, despite the "Coming to Fight" title given to the bout, both will fight pretty conservatively. The will go/won't go is set at 11.5 or 12 rounds depending on where you bet, with a higher premium (between -450 and -600 on the will go) as neither experienced warrior is expected to be knocked out. I'll be posting live from ringside at Mandalay Bay starting around 7 p.m. PDT Saturday night in the ViewFromVegas Forums. Join in the conversation, especially if you're watching on pay-per-view.
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