Discussing Home Run Derby odds
(This weekly feature is similar to the one I used to write each week for publication in Wednesday's Daily Racing Form, but with deadlines/waiting for a press run/distribution not being issues of online publishing, readers can now access this much earlier here. Sometimes it will be up on Sunday night, or on Monday at the latest).
By DAVE TULEY
LAS VEGAS — On Monday night, when viewers tune into the Home Run Derby from AT&T Park in San Francisco, they won't likely hear the ESPN announcers discuss the betting odds on the competition. Oh, they might say that Ryan Howard of the Phillies is the "favorite" since he's the defending champion, but that'll be the extent of it.
But not so here. In Vegas, any talk of the Home Run Derby is almost all about the odds. Otherwise, in all honesty, why else would we watch this exhibition? It would take a lot less time to just watch the highlights on SportsCenter.
So, while ESPN might tell you Howard is the favorite, ViewFromVegas.com will go a step further and tell you that Howard is the 5-2 favorite. (Editor's note: For those not as well versed in the odds, that means that for every $2 risked, you would profit $5, plus you would get your $2 back. That's why a horse that is 5-2 will pay $7 to win.) Prince Fielder of the Brewers is the second choice at 3-1, followed by Justin Morneau of the Twins at 4-1, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals at 5-1, Vladimir Guerrero of the Angels at 8-1, Magglio Ordonez of the Tigers at 15-1, and Alex Rios of the Blue Jays at 15-1. Instead of an eighth contestant listed, there is a "field" bet at 8-1, which proved to be the right move as Miguel Cabrera of the Marlins was originally announced to be in the competition, but suffered an injured left shoulder and was replaced by Matt Holliday of the Rockies.
The Hilton also has head-to-head matchups on the most total home runs hit. Howard is -130 (risk $1.30 for every $1 you want to profit) vs. Fielder at +110 (win $1.10 for every $1 wagered). Other matchups are Morneau -125 vs. Pujols +105, Pujols -125 vs. Guerrero +105, Guerrero -120 vs. Ordonez EV, Howard -145 vs. Morneau +125, Fielder -125 vs. Morneau +105, Guerrero -125 vs. Rios +105, and Ordonez -115 vs. Rios -105.
* As for the actual All-Star Game on Tuesday night, the American League (despite the game being played in a National League park) is a -125 favorite to win the game and guarantee home-field advantage for its representative in the World Series. The total is 10 runs, with most books shading the under as a -120 favorite, meaning you would risk $1.20 to win $1 if you wanted to go under the 10 runs and you would bet even-money if going over 10.
* The Hilton has adjusted its World Series odds at the break. The Red Sox, with the majors' best record at 53-34, are the 7-2 favorite, followed by the Mets and Tigers at 5-1, the Angels at 6-1,the Indians at 10-1, the Padres and Brewers at 14-1, and the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs at 15-1.
Tennis, anyone?
Roger Federer won his fifth straight Wimbledon men's tennis title on Sunday to tie Bjorn Borg's modern-era record, living up to the prohibitive 4-11 odds (risk $11 to profit $4) that Federer was before the tournament started. Federer was -600 vs. Nadal but it was a duel before Federer survived in five sets.
Venus Williams was a much juicier price to win the women's title a fortnight ago at 12-1. By the time she made the final vs. Marion Bartoli, she was -450.
Later Monday from Tuley the Journalist: A report from the World Series of Poker, including the final number of entries in the $10,000 World Championship No Limit Hold'em (aka the Main Event), plus other observations.
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